Packers NFL Playoffs Update: Standings, Wild-Card Matchup, Odds After Week 11

Here’s the latest from the NFC playoff race, with the Green Bay Packers beating the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers coming to Lambeau after losing to the Seattle Seahawks.

Green Packers Jordan Love celebrates as he walks off the field after the win against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. / David Banks-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With their victory over the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the Green Bay Packers have a two-game lead in the NFC playoff race with seven games to go.

The Packers (7-3) moved up to sixth place in the NFC. They are a half-game ahead of the Washington Commanders (7-4), who lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday and have not had their bye.

As the sixth seed, the Packers would play at the third seed, which is the NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals (6-4).

The three teams pursuing the Cardinals in the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams, Seahawks and 49ers, are 5-5 and two games behind Green Bay in the playoff chase.

Assuming the main challenger for the final NFC wild-card spot comes from the West: The Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams. Green Bay will play the 49ers at Lambeau Field on Sunday and the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 15, so nothing is close to decided.

“I just thought in every phase really, on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, there were opportunities there that we didn’t capitalize on,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday, one day after a 20-19 victory at the Chicago Bears.

With Green Bay’s victory and San Francisco’s loss to Seattle on Sunday, the Packers’ playoff probability is 83 percent, according to The New York Times. That would rise to 93 percent with a win over the 49ers.

At that point, even a three-game losing streak against the Dolphins at Lambeau and at the Lions and Seahawks would leave the Packers with a 70 percent playoff probability.

With their significant lead in the playoff race, they are a commanding -450 at FanDuel Sportsbook to reach the NFL playoffs. That’s an implied probability of 81.8 percent.

The Packers are 1 1/2-point favorites against the 49ers, who had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday.

Of note, the Packers have the 10th-toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon. However, of the teams in the playoff jumble, only the Commanders (24th) have a remaining strength of schedule below .500.

To hold onto its playoff spot, Green Bay will need to play better than it did against Chicago. The Packers were outgained, lost the turnover battle, lost on third down and lost time of possession by almost 13 minutes, but they found a way to win.

“I think that’s this league,” LaFleur said. “You look around the league, a lot of these games are going down to the final drive. There’s a good example yesterday in the San Francisco-Seattle game, as well.

“You better stay resilient. You better keep fighting and have that never-say-die mentality. I think that’s what showed on that final play is just the effort, strain that our field-goal block unit went out there with and made a play.”

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions: 9-1 (first place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule rank (in order of difficulty in the NFL, via Tankathon): 5th

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2 (first place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule rank: 17th

3. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4 (first place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule rank: 19th

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5 (first place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule rank: 21st

5. Minnesota Vikings: 8-2 (second place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule rank: 6th

6. Green Bay Packers: 7-3 (third place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule rank: 10th

7. Washington Commanders: 7-4 (second place, NFC East)                                        

Strength of schedule rank: 26th

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8. Los Angeles Rams: 5-5 (second place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule rank: 11th

9. Seattle Seahawks: 5-5 (third place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule rank: 9th

10. San Francisco 49ers: 5-5 (fourth place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule rank: 4th

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6 (second place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule rank: 31st

12. Chicago Bears: 4-6 (fourth place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule rank: 1st

13. New Orleans Saints: 4-7 (third place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule rank: 25th

14. Dallas Cowboys: 3-6 (third place, NFC East; pending Monday night game vs. Texans)

Strength of schedule rank: 15th

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-7 (fourth place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule rank: 7th

16. New York Giants: 2-8 (last place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule rank: 13th

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This week's #Packers Overreactions include a troubling performance on defense given what's ahead on the schedule.https://t.co/rbJEJ3799g

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