Packers Playoff Probabilities After Beating Dolphins

Here’s the latest look at the NFC playoffs standings after the Green Bay Packers won their third consecutive game to close in on locking up a trip to the postseason.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) celebrates while carrying a tray of turkey following their win over the Miami Dolphins. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have taken a huge step toward returning to the NFL playoffs the last five days by beating the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and the Miami Dolphins on Thursday.

By winning for the seventh time in eight games and improving to 3-0 since their bye, Green Bay improved to 9-3. They went 9-8 last season.

According to NFL.com, their playoff probability after routing the Dolphins improved to 97 percent.

According to The New York Times, Green Bay has a 98 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That number wouldn’t budge even with a loss next Thursday at the Detroit Lions.

Now, the question isn’t so much whether the Packers will reach the playoffs. It’s who they’ll play once in the playoffs.

For now, the Packers are the No. 6 seed. They are a half-game behind the Minnesota Vikings, who will host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, in the race for the No. 5 seed, and two games ahead of the Washington Commanders, who will host the Titans on Sunday, in the race for No. 6.

The No. 5 seed will play the worst of the division winners. At the moment, that’s the Atlanta Falcons, who are 6-5 and have lost two in a row.

The No. 6 seed will play the third-best of the division winners. At the moment, that’s the Seattle Seahawks, who are 6-5 and have won two in a row since their bye. They will host the Packers in two weeks.

If Packers were to fall to the No. 7 seed, they’d play the second-best of the division winners. At the moment, that’s the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 9-2, have won seven in a row and beat Green Bay in Week 1.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, the most likely outcome is Green Bay would finish as the No. 6 seed (52 percent).

Their most likely wild-card opponent would be the Atlanta Falcons (30 percent), followed by the Arizona Cardinals (20 percent), Philadelphia Eagles (13 percent), Seattle Seahawks (12 percent) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10 percent).

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions: 11-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 6-5 (first place, NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 9-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 9-3 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 7-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Arizona Cardinals: 6-5 (second place, NFC West)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-6 (second place, NFC South)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 5-6 (third place, NFC West)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 5-6 (fourth place, NFC West)

12. Dallas Cowboys: 5-7 (third place, NFC East)

13. New Orleans Saints: 4-7 (third place, NFC South)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-8 (fourth place, NFC North)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-8 (fourth place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-10 (last place, NFC East)

Packers Closing Schedule

It’s a good thing the Packers have built some cushion, because the closing stretch will be challenging. According to Tankathon, Green Bay’s final five opponents have a .596 winning percentage. That’s the sixth-toughest schedule in the league.

Because of the power of the NFC North, the Bears (toughest at .702), Lions (third-toughest at .632) and Vikings (tied for fourth-toughest at .609) join Green Bay in degree of difficulty.

Here are the final five games:

Week 14: at Detroit Lions (11-1; won 10 in a row)

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (6-5; won two in a row after losing of five six before their bye)

Week 16: New Orleans Saints (4-7; won two in a row before this week’s bye)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (9-2; won four in a row)

Week 18: Chicago Bears (4-8; lost six in a row)

Fortunately for the Packers, Love said they’re playing their best football of the season.

“The name of the game for us is playing complimentary ball, playing off each other and taking advantage of those situations that we get, like we did tonight,” Love said. “I think that’s when we’re at our best is when we’re just playing off each other and playing good complimentary ball.”

Thursday’s game at Detroit and Week 17 at Minnesota will be huge.

If the Packers can spring an upset of the Lions, there would be a glimmer of hope to earn the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage (4 percent, according to The New York Times). There would have been more than a glimmer of hope had the Bears pulled off the upset at Detroit on Thursday rather than blowing a chance to force overtime because of an all-time clock-management gaffe.

Assuming the Lions win the North, the Packers-Vikings game probably will decide the No. 5 seed.

“It feels great,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “I haven’t been 9-3 since I’ve been in the league. So, it feels amazing, but we’ve still got a lot of work to do. We’ve got a tough division, and we’ve got to get prepared for a big game next week.”

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