Packers Playoff Probabilities With Win or Loss to Seahawks

The Green Bay Packers are closing in on a playoff spot. Here’s how their chances will change based on Sunday night’s outcome.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs will play a key role on Sunday night at the Seattle Seahawks. / Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers won’t be able to clinch a playoff berth with a victory over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night, but they are closing in on a spot in the postseason.

Here are the latest playoff probabilities, and how they’ll be impacted by the outcome in Seattle.

NFL.com: 96 percent.

Beat Seattle: 99-plus percent. Lose to Seattle: 93 percent.

New York Times: 97 percent.

Beat Seattle: 99-plus percent. Lose to Seattle: 94 percent.

Playoff Status: 96 percent.

Beat Seattle: 99-plus percent. Lose to Seattle: 93 percent.

If the Packers win, their playoff seed percentages would be 24 percent for No. 5, 64 percent for No. 6 and 11 percent for No. 7. If the Packers lose, those would move to 11 percent for No. 5, 51 percent for No. 6 and 31 percent for No. 7.

ESPN: 99 percent.

There isn’t a win-loss breakdown. However, the Packers have a 26 percent chance to move up to No. 5 and a 53 percent chance to stay at No. 6.

Fox Sports: 97 percent.

There isn’t a win-loss breakdown, but Fox’s Ralph Vacchiano had this to say (and more) about the Packers. “They'll almost certainly have to go through Detroit if they want to get to the Super Bowl, and that task doesn't seem as daunting to them as it probably did before.”

Even if they are well on their way to earning a return trip to the playoffs, this is a big game for the Packers.

The No. 6 playoff seed will play at the No. 3 seed. At the moment, that would mean a rematch at the Seahawks before what could mean a third matchup against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round.

If the Packers were to fall to No. 7, they’d have to play at the No. 2 seed. At the moment, that would mean a rematch at the Eagles. If the Packers could earn an upset victory in Philadelphia, they’d be locked into a return trip to Detroit for the divisional round.

“Very important,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s the next game. It’s a great challenge. They’re a really good team, a team that’s on a winning streak. Like I told our guys, they’re all playoff games from here on out.”

Quarterback Jordan Love said the team has the same mindset as last year.

“We’re not holding anything back,” he said. “We’re keeping the same approach we’ve done all season, taking it one week at a time. With that being said, we’re kind of in the same boat as last year. We’re just saying we’ve got to win out. Our goal is to win every game to finish this stretch, and secure a playoff spot. We’re going to take it one week at a time and, obviously, all of our focus is to go get a win at Seattle this week.”

The Packers will end the season with games against the Seahawks, who are 8-5 have won four in a row, the Saints, who are 5-8 but have won three of their last four, the Vikings, who are 11-2 and have won six in a row, and the Bears, who are 4-9 and have lost seven in a row.

“The mindset is this is a playoff game,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “It’s like any other mindset, any other game, we’ve got to go in focused and ready to play. Obviously, the atmosphere they provide is pretty crazy. I played there once before, I know how loud it can get and I know their fans are crazy – crazy loud in that way.

“They’ve got a really good team, so it’s going to be a challenge for us going in there for a road game, tough team, playoff opponent team, so that’s the mindset that we’re carrying into it.”

NFC Playoff Standings

Top Seven Qualify

1.. Detroit Lions: 12-1 (first place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: .585 (10th)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-2 (first place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule: .481 (18th)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 8-5 (first place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: .604 (sixth)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-6 (first place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: .404 (25th)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 11-2 (second place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: .635 (fourth)

6. Green Bay Packers: 9-4 (third place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: .538 (14th)

7. Washington Commanders: 8-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

Strength of schedule: .519 (15th)

In Contention

8. Los Angeles Rams: 8-6 (second place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: .436 (22nd)

9. Atlanta Falcons: 6-7 (second place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: .288 (31st)

10. Arizona Cardinals: 6-7 (third place, NFC West)

Strength of schedule: .370 (29th)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 6-8 (last place)

Strength of schedule: .615 (fifth)

12. New Orleans Saints: 5-8 (third place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: .500 (17th)

13. Dallas Cowboys: 5-8 (third place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule: .558 (11th)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-9 (last place, NFC North)

Strength of schedule: .769 (first)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-10 (last place, NFC South)

Strength of schedule: .462 (19th)

Eliminated

16. New York Giants: 2-11 (last place, NFC East)

Strength of schedule: .596 (seventh)

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#Packers RB Josh Jacobs has played in only one game at Seattle.

It was one of the greatest individual performances in NFL history. ⬇️https://t.co/Fttils7Gbb

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 14, 2024

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