Packers-Saints Matchups: Who Has Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers are huge favorites for Monday night’s home game against the New Orleans Saints. Here is a look at the matchups.

New Orleans Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor reacts after breaking up a pass intended for Green Bay Packers receiver Romeo Doubs. / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Green Bay Packers can almost see the light at the end of the tunnel that is the regular season.

Following a dominant 30-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks, the Packers (10-4) will play their first home game since Thanksgiving when they host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.

The Packers are looking to build momentum and potentially strengthen their playoff position.

The Saints?

They’re playing out the string and draft positioning. They’re 5-9. They’ve fired their head coach. Their quarterback is injured.

You get the picture.

This game is a mismatch, and the matchups reflect it.

The Packers are 14.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here is a look at the Packers-Saints matchups.

Pass Offense

The Saints’ offense does not look anything like the group they thought they’d have at the beginning of the season.

Quarterback David Carr was looking to bounce back after a tough first season in New Orleans.

They started the year in a blaze of glory. They scored more than 40 points in each of their first two games.

Perhaps predictably, things have not gone as well as those first two games.

Carr suffered a broken left hand a couple weeks ago and likely will miss Monday’s game.

Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler played with Carr inactive in Sunday’s loss to the Washington Commanders. Haener was benched and Rattler finished the game – and nearly pulled off the upset, but his pass on a two-point conversion with no time remaining fell incomplete.

If Carr cannot go, Rattler likely will start.

A fifth-round pick in this year’s draft, he’s played in four games with three starts. He’s thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions with a completion rate of just 57.5 percent. He’s been pummeled behind the Saints’ offensive line, as well. He’s been sacked 14 times.

Receiver Chris Olave is on injured reserve, so their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is former Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s tied for the team lead in touchdowns despite joining the team well after the season had started.

Their leading receiver is running back Alvin Kamara, but he’s not nearly the player he once was and might not play because of a calf injury sustained against Washington.

Green Bay’s defense is coming off one of its best performances of the season. It could be getting Jaire Alexander back, as well.

Even if they don’t, Green Bay’s pass rush should be able to create enough havoc against a backup quarterback playing with the Island of Misfit Toys at wide receiver.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Offense

A dominant Packers run defense, you say?

Maybe that’s one step too far, but this group has continued to put together great performances since the bye.

The Packers shut down Seattle’s run game on Sunday. Zach Charbonnet had one carry for 24 yards and a touchdown. His other seven carries went for 30 yards.

New Orleans’ run game is a little different than Seattle’s. Alvin Kamara has more wiggle than Charbonnet, but the Packers have done well with all types of backs since the bye. They stymied San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing in 2023, and Miami’s DeVon Achane, who led the NFL in yards per attempt in 2023. Next, they held Detroit’s powerful run game in check.

Ultimately, the Packers’ rush defense is ranked in the top 10 – ninth with 105.0 rushing yards per game and eighth with 4.15 yards allowed per carry. That’s unheard of in these parts. Death, taxes and a bad Packers run defense had been the three guarantees of life.

This year, not so much.

Kamara averages 4.2 yards per carry and likely will hit the 1,000-yard mark again this season. He had 12 yards on five carries against Washington before the injury.

He gave way to rookie Kendre Miller as New Orleans’ lead back.

With 4.6 yards per carry, Miller’s been more explosive than Kamara but in limited opportunities. Former Packers running back Jamaal Williams has averaged 3.7 yards on his 35 attempts; he has just three carries the last six games. The Saints will likely want to run the ball to shorten the game.

That’s proven to be a tall task against Green Bay.

Advantage: Packers

Pass Defense

New Orleans’ defense was one that coach Matt LaFleur had plenty of praise for before last year’s home opener against the Saints.

His words proved to be prophetic. The Saints shut Green Bay out through three quarters. A fourth quarter comeback from Jordan Love and Co. saved the day in an 18-17 win.

This year, the group looks drastically different.

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore was traded at the deadline for draft compensation. Alontae Taylor was the best player on the field in that game a year ago, and he will be back for this matchup. He doesn’t have an interception but he has a team-high 13 passes defensed along with four sacks and two forced fumbles.

Also back is safety Tyrann Mathieu. He is tied for the team lead with three interceptions and forced two fumbles. He is crafty enough to make a big play if Love puts the ball in harm’s way.

Love has not done that since the bye week, though. He has thrown one interception, but that came on Nov. 17 against the Chicago Bears when the receiver slipped on his route. He has not turned the ball over since that day.

Christian Watson continues to make big plays, Romeo Doubs scored two touchdowns in his return from a concussion and the Packers’ pass protection has been sound save for a first-half hiccup against Detroit.

The Saints have 37 sacks – 16th in sack percentage – and are led by former Clemson defensive tackle Bryan Bresee with 7.5. Bresee’s athleticism is off the charts, and he’s capable of causing havoc inside.

Defensive ends Chase Young and Carl Granderson are second on the team with 5.5 sacks; Young leads the way with 21 quarterback hits. Defensive tackle Cam Jordan, a longtime star of their defense, has only three sacks but two of those came against Washington.

Ultimately, New Orleans ranks toward the bottom of the league against the pass. It gives up 242 yards per game through the air, which is good for 28th. It’s a solid seventh in opponent passer rating, though, because it’s tied for eighth with 13 interceptions.

This is another mismatch that favors Green Bay.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Defense

Josh Jacobs set the tone against the Seahawks.

A 10-play opening drive saw Jacobs touch the ball nine times, finishing the drive off with a 1-yard touchdown run to give the Packers an early 7-0 lead.

For the Saints, linebacker Demario Davis, a first- or second-team All-Pro each of the last five seasons, leads the team with 102 tackles.

Green Bay is near the top of the league in rushing. New Orleans is 27th with 134.4 rushing yards allowed per game and 30th with 4.94 yards allowed per carry.

Are you sensing a theme here?

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

The stability that Green Bay has found in its kicking game cannot be understated. Brandon McManus has missed just once since coming to Green Bay.

The kicking position, which had been a point of contention, is now mostly an afterthought. That’s not necessarily the case in New Orleans.

Blake Grupe was one of the main culprits in New Orleans’ 18-17 loss at Lambeau Field last season, as he pushed a 46-yard field goal wide to the right, which allowed the Packers to kneel out the remainder of the clock.

Grupe is 22-of-26 on field goals this season with a long of 57. He’s missed two point-after attempts.

The explosive return game, which was led by Rashid Shaheed, has been grounded due to his season-ending knee injury.

Green Bay is coming off a bumpy game against Seattle but has a big advantage in the return game and punter and a solid edge at kicker.

That makes these advantages a clean sweep, with a thorough understanding as to why the Packers are two-touchdown favorites against the Saints.

Advantage: Packers

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