Packer Central

Packers’ Strength of Schedule Based on Over/Under Win Totals

How tough is the Green Bay Packers’ schedule? Here is a look at 2024 NFL strength of schedule as viewed through Vegas-based win totals.

Bill Huber

Jordan Love at Packers OTAs.
Jordan Love at Packers OTAs. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – Tired: Basing NFL strength of schedule on the previous year’s results. Wired: Basing strength of schedule on Las Vegas win totals.

After all, sportsbooks are taking the entire picture into account when computing its over/unders. Free agency, draft picks and coaching changes are among the factors that can dramatically impact a team’s fortunes.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, its season win projections were used to compute strength of schedule.

By that formula, the Packers are projected to have the eighth-toughest schedule in 2024.

The average win total of Green Bay’s opponents is 8.68 – so not too far over .500. The 15th-toughest schedule – a tie that includes the NFC North-champion Detroit Lions – is 8.62 wins. So, from that perspective, it’s not as if the Packers are slated to play a murderer’s row of a schedule.

It is worth noting, however, that the Packers are scheduled to play four games against top-eight teams – one game against the 49ers (11.5 wins), two games against the Lions (10.5 wins) and one game against the Eagles (10.5 wins) – and two games against bottom-eight teams (Titans and Cardinals, both 6.5 wins).

The Packers finished 9-8 last season and have a win projection of 9.5 at FanDuel. To take the next step on the field and to beat the sportsbook projection will require the team to take the next step on the field while ignoring the hype powered by last year’s hot finish.

“You can never take anything for granted and it really doesn’t matter what you’ve done in the past,” coach Matt LaFleur said recently. “It’s about what we’re building toward and trying to accomplish in the future. I think we’ve got a great start to it but, ultimately, we’ve got to keep working. That’s the only way you accomplish anything in life is you work and grind and try to get that a little bit better each and every day.”

The Packers have one more week to get better, with minicamp next week. From there, it’ll be a six-week break before training camp begins with the first practice on July 22.

“The biggest difference, I just think there’s obviously been a lot of learning that’s taken place,” LaFleur said on Tuesday of what’s been gained during OTAs. “I’m really pleased with where we’re at right now in terms of not only the cohesion on the field but also off the field.

“I think every time we step in the meeting rooms, there’s been great energy, great interaction with the guys. I think that’s part of the process, is just how we can come together, and I think that’s a great part of the offseason, As you guys know, there’s not a ton to do in Green Bay, which, as a coach, I think is a benefit. It allows these guys to really spend a lot of time with each other, not only in the building but outside of the building, as well.”

The Pittsburgh Steelers have the toughest schedule, with an opponent average win total of 9.07 and seven games against top-eight opponents. The Minnesota Vikings are tied for the fourth-toughest schedule. They drew the short end of the stick, with their third-place schedule including matchups against the Atlanta Falcons, who signed Kirk Cousins, and New York Jets, who are giving it another run with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.

The Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers and New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedules. The Chargers are set to play eight games against bottom-eight opponents.

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.