Packers-Texans Matchups: Who Has the Advantage?

Here is a unit-by-unit look at Sunday’s heavyweight showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans at Lambeau Field. Which units have the edge?

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball against the New England Patriots last week. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Green Bay Packers will host the Houston Texans on Sunday in a measuring-stick game between a pair of presumptive Super Bowl contenders.

The last time the Texans came to Lambeau Field, they were wandering through the wilderness that is quarterback purgatory.

Brock Osweiler started against the Packers, who were in the midst of a six-game regular-season winning streak during their “Run the Table” season of 2016.

These Texans are significantly better. In what turned out to be a transformational draft, the Texans in 2023 used their first-round picks on quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. They are two of the best young players at their position.

The Texans (5-1) are one of the favorites to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC. They’re likely the best team the Packers have faced this season.

The Packers (4-2) think they’re Super Bowl contenders. This week, we might find out just how close they are to achieving that status.

Here is a look at the matchups.

Pass Offense

The Texans are built around their franchise quarterback. Stroud’s ascension was similar to Jordan Love’s last season, as the Texans surprised everyone by not only making the postseason but winning a playoff game – a blowout win over the Cleveland Browns – before going toe-to-toe with the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens for three quarters in a season-ending loss.

Houston, wanting to strike while the iron was hot, gave Stroud a well-rounded offense to start his second season.

One break the Packers have caught this week is that Stroud’s best receiver, Nico Collins, is on injured reserve. Collins led the team in catches, yards and touchdowns when he went down with an injured hamstring. He is the best receiver on the Texans and one of the best in the NFL.

The Texans are not a one-man band in the passing game, though.

Stefon Diggs used to have all-out wars with Jaire Alexander when he played for the Minnesota Vikings. Diggs, who has a team-high 37 receptions, is still fiery. Alexander excels at being a pest and getting under his opponent’s skin. Perhaps we’ll see that again this week.

Outside of Alexander and safety Xavier McKinney, the rest of the secondary has lived in a rotation in Green Bay. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley probably will mix and match again this week.

Receiver Tank Dell (20 catches, 194 yards, one touchdown) and tight end Dalton Schultz (18 receptions, 143 yards) are Stroud’s favorite targets without Collins.

Stroud been sacked 16 times in six games. Four-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil has allowed two sacks but has been flagged 12 times – four more than any other player at any other position. Left guard Kenyon Green has given up two sacks, a team-high 15 pressures and been flagged seven times. There’s an opportunity for Green Bay’s pass rush to get rolling here.

This matchup is incredibly close, and the nod would likely go to the Texans if Collins were healthy.

Since he’s not, we’ll give a slight nod to the Packers.

Advantage: Packers

Rush Offense

Hafley’s unit is coming off its best performance against the run vs. Arizona. Facing a chainsaw with legs in James Conner and a very dynamic Kyler Murray on Sunday, the Packers shut them down.

Murray carried seven times for 14 yards, a week after scoring a 50-yard touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers. The 233-pound Conner did not fare much better, totaling 24 yards on seven carries.

Their run game totaled 23 carries for 89 yards. That’s about as good as it gets against a dynamic runner like Murray, who led the NFL in yards per carry entering the game.

No such mobility to worry about at quarterback this week.

Stroud is not a statue, but he doesn’t move as well as some of the other quarterbacks Green Bay has faced this season.

Joe Mixon was brought over as a free agent from Cincinnati and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. After missing a month with an ankle injury, he returned last week and ran 13 times for 102 yards against the Patriots.

Mixon is flanked in the backfield by Dameon Pierce and former Wisconsin Badgers standout Dare Ogunbowale.

Pierce missed four games due to injury and returned last week with 54-yard touchdown run. Ogunbowale is much more of a receiving threat than a runner; he’s caught 15-of-16 targets this year.

With as much focus as there is on Stroud and the passing game, it can be easy to forget about the run game.

If the Packers do that, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans will be more than happy to continue to hand the ball to his stable of running backs.

Houston ranks 13th in rushing offense and Green Bay is eighth in rushing defense. Despite the rankings, we’ll still give the nod to the Texans.

Advantage: Texans

Pass Defense

Ryans put together a game plan that stifled four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers at a snowy Lambeau Field in the 49ers’ divisional-round playoff victory over the Packers in 2021.

So, Packers coach Matt LaFleur is familiar with the man on the opposite sideline.

This time will be drastically different. Jordan Love and the Packers’ passing game is coming off its best game of the season.

The pass protection was excellent, surrendering zero sacks, and Love often had plenty of time to find open receivers down the field.

If the Packers give up zero sacks this week, they will have earned it. Houston’s front is vicious, and it is ready to hunt at a moment’s notice.

Anderson and Danielle Hunter form one of the best pass-rushing duos in football. They have combined for eight sacks and, according to Pro Football Focus, 50 total pressures. For context, all off Green Bay’s defensive ends have 28.

Anderson is the straw that stirs the drink for Houston’s defense. Blocking him has to be Priority No. 1.

It’s not just those two that can get after the quarterback, though. Derek Barnett and Tim Settle have two sacks apiece. The Texans have 19 as a team and are fourth in sack percentage.

They have five interceptions, led by rookie safety Calen Bullock with two, and recovered two fumbles, giving the Texans a middle-of-the-pack seven takeaways.

Houston is ranked fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game and first in opponent completion percentage.

Green Bay may have found its rhythm in the passing game at just the right time, because this game is going to be an immense challenge.  

This should be the best matchup of the game.

Advantage: Texans

Rush Defense

Green Bay’s run game has been powerful to start this season. They’re ranked second in the NFL behind the Baltimore Ravens, who employ Lamar Jackson as a quarterback, which can help inflate their numbers.

The Packers’ tandem of Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson may not have the 60-yard runs on their resume, but they’ve been incredibly solid through six games.

Those two, combined with LaFleur’s creativity, have been a match made in heaven.

Conversely, the Texans are relatively average at defending the run. They ranked 13th in rushing yards allowed per game and 17th in yards allowed per carry. In their lone loss this season to the Vikings, Aaron Jones rushed for 102 yards. Two weeks ago against Jacksonville, Tank Bigsby rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns.

There’s a matchup to potentially exploit here. A competent run game will slow down this vicious Texans pass rush, which has to be at the top of the list of priorities for LaFleur and his offensive staff.

Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Green Bay made a change at kicker, with Brandon McManus signed to replace Brayden Narveson, who is last in the NFL in field-goal percentage. The Packers are hoping the 33-year-old will cure arguably the team’s biggest weakness.

Finally, Keisean Nixon found some room to roam on a chilly, rainy Sunday against the Cardinals.

Nixon had two chances to return kickoffs and took them back for 60 yards. Plus, he had a 39-yard punt return when he used his speed to get around the corner. He might have scored had he not been knocked out of bounds by the punter.

Punter Daniel Whelan rebounded from a tough game against the Rams with a nice day against the Cardinals.

The Texans’ special teams are back-to-back champions for Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings. They’re the best in the business.

Ka’imi Fairbairn drilled a 59-yard field goal to beat the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago and is as solid as they come at that position. He is a staggering 8-of-9 from 50-plus yards this season.

Robert Woods and Steven Sims are their primary returners. Woods has a 36-yard punt return and a 30.7-yard average on kickoff returns; Sims has a 4.7-yard average on punt returns but a 29.7-yard average on kickoff returns.

Their coverage units are rock solid, with a 4.9-yard average on punt returns and a 23.8-yard average on kickoff returns. Houston has allowed 17 kickoff returns, so Nixon should have opportunities.

The nod here goes to the Texans in a landslide.

Advantage: Texans

More Green Bay Packers News

This is official now. As we hinted earlier, the #Packers have signed a kicker. https://t.co/1p6ZGtR76h

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 15, 2024

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