Packers-Vikings Matchups: Who Has Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will battle in a huge NFC North showdown on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here’s a look at the matchups.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) in action during the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

It will be a rivalry renewed this week at U.S. Bank Stadium when the Green Bay Packers (11-4) take on the Minnesota Vikings (13-2).

Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 6-5 against the Vikings but 2-3 against Kevin O’Connell. They split the series in 2022 and again in 2023. This year, the Vikings won 31-29 at Lambeau Field. Minnesota led 28-0, then withstood a furious rally.

Close games have been the story of Minnesota’s season.

They’re 13-2 with a point differential of plus-120. They’re 8-1 in one-score games, with their eighth win coming Sunday with a 27-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

The Packers need to beat Minnesota to have any chance to move up from the sixth seed. A loss would put them in jeopardy of falling to the seventh seed.

Here are the matchups that will determine whether the Packers can earn a fifth consecutive season split with the Vikings.

Packers Rush Offense

Green Bay’s rush offense has found ways to move the ball on the ground regardless of who it has played.

The Packers entered Week 16 ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing, thanks in large part to the presence of Josh Jacobs, who is fourth with 1,216 yards.

Minnesota’s defense is one of the best in the NFL against the run, ranking second with 87.1 rushing yards allowed per game and 3.88 yards allowed per carry. The first time these teams met, the Vikings were able to hold Jacobs to 51 yards on just nine carries because they took such a huge early lead.

This time, quarterback Jordan Love is healthy, and the Packers should be able to keep things closer as a result.

The Packers have shown an ability to run the ball on anyone, but the Vikings have shown the ability to stop almost anyone.

It’s the classic case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. There is no discernable advantage here.

Advantage: Push

Packers Pass Offense

The first time these teams met, Minnesota won this battle in decisive fashion. Jordan Love was just 12-of-24 passing for 118 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the first half as the Packers trailed 28-7 at halftime.

The Packers lost at home to the Vikings last year, too, but the second matchup was a decisive knockout in favor of the Packers as Love and the offense torched Minnesota on New Year’s Eve.

This week’s game might require an encore performance.

Love has been excellent since the bye week. He’s thrown just one interception in six games since the bye, with none in the last five.

Love’s health has been the biggest difference in that time. He was coming back from a knee injury when he faced the Vikings in September. Later, he played through a groin injury.

Now that he’s healthy, his mobility is better. His ball placement is better. His decision-making has been better.

As a result, Love is playing at an incredibly high level coming into Sunday’s big game.

This offseason, the Vikings invested heavily in their pass rush, and it’s paid off for defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

Last year, Danielle Hunter finished fifth in the NFL with 16.5 sacks. This offseason, they replaced him with Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, who are tied for seventh with 11 sacks apiece. Plus, first-round pick Dallas Turner has two sacks.

With fourth-year player Patrick Jones having a breakthrough season with seven sacks, the Vikings are fifth in the league with 44 sacks.

Their secondary is led by the ageless safety Harrison Smith and fellow safety Josh Metellus, who both have played well against Green Bay.

Cornerback Byron Murphy leads the team with six interceptions. The Vikings have a league-high 22 interceptions – 10 players have at least one – and are second with 30 takeaways.

Taking care of the football will be paramount this week. It always is, but that’s especially true against a team with a propensity to take the ball away.

The NFL, however, is almost always about quarterbacks.

Due to the way Love is playing, the slight advantage goes to Green Bay in this matchup.

Advantage: Packers

Packers Rush Defense

Aaron Jones is back again.

The former Green Bay Packers star has enjoyed a good season in Minnesota. He’s eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark and is averaging 4.49 yards per carry.

More importantly, he’s stayed healthy.

Jones only has five touchdowns but has been the bell cow in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

Jones has carried the ball 233 times – just three off his career high. He is the only Vikings running back with more than 52 carries. That’s a large departure from how Jones has been used throughout his career.

Jones carried 22 times for 93 yards and had 139 total yards in the first matchup.

Green Bay’s run defense is drastically improved compared to past seasons, when they ranked at or near the bottom of the NFL with former defensive coordinators Joe Barry and Mike Pettine.

Under Jeff Hafley, the Packers’ defense has catapulted itself toward the top of the NFL. The Packers are eighth with 102.5 rushing yards allowed per game and fifth with 4.11 yards allowed per carry.

Usually, the advantage in this scenario would go to any team with a competent ground game.

Instead, Green Bay’s run defense is one of its strengths.

Advantage: Packers

Packers Pass Defense

The Vikings’ offense starts with Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson was made the highest-paid receiver in football for a reason. He’s as good as it gets. Jefferson ranks eighth with 92 receptions, second with 1,387 yards, ninth with 15.1 yards per catch and fourth with 10 touchdowns.

The question for the Packers is who will line up against Jefferson.

Former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander has been a full participant in all but one practice the last two weeks but was inactive for both games.

It’s anyone’s guess if Alexander will be able to play this week. He has not played since the 10 snaps he logged against Chicago on Nov. 17.

Alexander may have struggled with injuries, but he is one of the game’s best when he’s healthy.

If he’s not healthy, it moves everyone else up a peg in the cornerback room, and Minnesota might have one of the best receiver duos in football.

Jordan Addison, a first-round pick in 2023, has 56 receptions for 806 yards (14.4 average) and eight touchdowns this season and has three touchdowns in three career games against the Packers. At Lambeau Field in 2023, he caught 7-of-8 passes for 82 yards and one touchdown, and that was with Alexander in the lineup.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson, who was sidelined by a torn ACL for the first matchup, has 34 receptions for 378 yards in his eight games back in the lineup.

He’s a nice safety blanket for quarterback Sam Darnold, who is a mortal lock to be the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year.

Darnold has enjoyed a career renaissance under the tutelage of Kevin O’Connell.

With 3,776 passing yards, Darnold could eclipse the 4,000-yard mark this week. He’s thrown 32 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions and has a fourth-ranked quarterback rating of 105.4. The last six games, he’s thrown 15 touchdowns and one interception.

He has looked every bit like the top-five pick that he was when the New York Jets selected him third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.

This game, like most, is likely to be won in the trenches.

The last time these teams met, Christian Darrisaw was the Vikings’ left tackle. He was lost for the season with a knee injury and replaced by Cam Robinson, who the Vikings picked up in a midseason trade. The Vikings are 134h in sack percentage but third in pass-block win rate, according to ESPN.

Pressure is going to be paramount for this Packers team. The pass rush has been better since the midseason trade of Preston Smith, with 10 sacks the last two games.

If you’re going to get pressure against the Vikings, it’s more likely going to come from up the middle. This is a big week for Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt and the rest of the interior defensive line.

If they’re able to push the pocket, Darnold could make some mistakes.

If they don’t, it could be a long day for Green Bay’s shorthanded secondary.

Advantage: Vikings

Special Teams

The change in Green Bay’s special teams could not be more drastic from the first matchup, when rookie kicker Brayden Narveson missed two field goals. He left six points on the field in a game the Packers lost by two.

The addition of veteran kicker Brandon McManus three weeks later has stabilized the Packers’ kicking game. He is 16-of-17 on field goals and 27-of-27 on extra points. Other than one miss in the rain against Detroit on Nov. 3, he’s made the kicking spot a complete afterthought.

The return game should not play much of a factor thanks to the temperature-controlled environment of U.S. Bank Stadium. Vikings kicker Will Reichard’s 65 kickoffs have produced 55 touchbacks.

Reichard is perfect on extra points and 19-of-22 on field goals.

It’s a slight advantage, but that slight one goes to Green Bay.

Advantage: Packers

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