Packer Central

Packers-Vikings Matchups: Who Has the Advantage?

Here is a unit-by-unit look at Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Who has the edge?

Jacob Westendorf

Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson catches a pass against the Green Bay Packers during last year's game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson catches a pass against the Green Bay Packers during last year's game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
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The Green Bay Packers will host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in the latest clash of a hotly contested rivalry.

While the Packers’ rivalry with the Chicago Bears has not been much of one at all, with coach Matt LaFleur winning all 10 matchups, it’s been a much different story against the Minnesota Vikings. LaFleur is 6-4 against the Vikings, and the teams have split the series each of the last four years.

The Packers are 2-1 entering this early-season showdown, and their starting quarterback could return to the lineup this week. The Vikings are a surprising 3-0, having beaten San Francisco and Houston the last two weeks.

Here is a look at the matchups that will decide the game.

Packers Rush Offense

Green Bay’s encore from its historic rushing performance vs. the Colts was not bad.

The Packers ran for 188 yards on 37 rushes. Of course, that was buoyed by quarterback Malik Willis’ 73 yards on six attempts.

If Jordan Love is back this week, the quarterback run game should go out the window.

In a more traditional setting, Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson have combined to form a solid duo through three weeks.

But the Vikings have been stout against the run, surrendering a third-ranked 3.6 yards per carry for the season and 2.7 in last week’s blowout win over the Texans.

Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is one of the better run defenders in the NFL and has been their leader up front, and Jonathan Bullard has four tackles for losses.

Linebacker Blake Cashman, who had 106 tackles last season for the Texans, made for a nice addition as a run defender. He leads the Vikings with 23 tackles.

The Packers won’t be able to run for 250 yards, like they did vs. the Colts, but they should be able to have enough success to stay ahead of the sticks. Eventually, those could break into bigger runs later in the game, much like they did against the Titans, when Jacobs and Wilson had 11 carries for 28 yards in the first half but 15 for 64 in the second half.

It’s difficult to find a definitive advantage in this matchup.

Advantage: Push

Packers Pass Offense

Malik Willis has been everything the Packers could have asked for and more through his first two starts.

He’s been efficient. He’s taken care of the ball.

Most importantly, he’s played winning football in potentially saving their season.

It looks like Willis’ reward for two great games could be a seat on the bench. Love went through practice last week and a demanding pregame workout before being inactive against the Titans.

If Love is able to play, the passing game could hit its stride.

Standing in its way? Brian Flores’ Vikings defense.

They’re third in the NFL in EPA per play and sixth in opponent passer rating. They rank fifth in sack percentage and fifth interception percentage.

Last year at Lambeau Field, Flores tormented Love and the Packers’ offense, with Green Bay limited to 10 points and Love to a 72.1 passer rating with four sacks. However, their second matchup was a decisive knockout in favor of the Packers, with Love and the offense torching the Vikings on New Year’s Eve.

Sunday’s game serves as a bit of an early grudge match.

Minnesota does look different than the group the Packers faced at the end of last year.

The Vikings invested heavily in their pass rush after losing Danielle Hunter, who finished fifth with 16.5 sacks last year. Jonathan Greenard, who had 12.5 sacks for the Texans last year, has four for the Vikings. Andrew Van Ginkel, who played at Wisconsin, has three sacks after recording six for the Dolphins last year. First-round pick Dallas Turner has one sack.

It’s not just the newcomers. Patrick Jones, who had four sacks in his first three seasons with the Vikings, has four already.

Their secondary is led by the ageless safety Harrison Smith, who has one interception, is tied for the team lead with three passes defensed and his second with 18 tackles. Josh Metellus, who had one interception and 15 tackles in the two games against Green Bay last year, is one of the league’s better nickel defenders. He has one interception this year.

If there is time to throw, cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Byron Murphy could be exploited by Green Bay’s receivers.

Ultimately, this matchup will come down to whether Green Bay can block Minnesota’s front and complex blitz schemes.

Advantage: Packers (if Love plays)

Packers Rush Defense

Perhaps you’ve heard of Minnesota’s running back. His name is Aaron Jones.

Jokes aside, Jones is “a problem,” as LaFleur put it. Jones is 10th in the NFL with 228 rushing yards, ninth with a 5.43 average and first in yards after contact per attempt. He’s scored in two of his first three games with the team.

He looks like, well, Aaron Jones, and he’ll be looking for a measure of revenge against a team that unceremoniously dumped him in favor of Jacobs at the start of free agency.

Green Bay is coming off its best performance of the season against the run. After getting clubbed over the head by Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, they shut down the Titans’ run game.

Was that a byproduct of what was a two-score lead for most of the game? Or improved performance? That’s for you to decide. Overall, the numbers were great. The Packers gave up 33 yards on 11 carries. Three yards a crack is going to get the job done almost any week.

The difference this week is the Vikings have much more of a threat both in the backfield and in the passing game.

Quarterback Sam Darnold is better than the Titans’ Will Levis. Jones is better than Tony Pollard.

Jones is likely to make some plays in this phase of the game. The key for the Packers is to ensure he does not take over the game.

No team knows better what Jones is capable of doing.

Advantage: Vikings

Packers Pass Defense

If Sunday’s game was a clash of the titans, then Jeff Hafley released the kraken on Levis.

That was Green Bay’s pass rush. It pummeled Levis from start to finish, tallying eight sacks and forcing three turnovers during a dominant defensive performance.

The pressure they were able to produce was a positive sign after two weeks of being asked to remain disciplined against mobile quarterbacks.

This week represents a different challenge.

Darnold is undergoing a renaissance in the early stages of his career in Minnesota. He leads the league with eight touchdown passes and has completed 10 passes of 20 yards or more. That includes a 97-yard touchdown against the 49ers to their all-everything receiver, Justin Jefferson.

The Vikings’ offense starts with him. Jefferson was made the highest-paid receiver in football for a reason.

He’s as good as it gets.

He’ll likely get a heavy dose of Jaire Alexander, who is off to one of the best starts of his career.

Alexander had some tough moments against the Eagles’ AJ Brown, as he drew that assignment in the season opener, but has had two strong games in a row.

As good as he’s been, he’ll need to be better against Jefferson.

The Vikings’ offense does not stop with Jefferson, but the rest of the picture is a little murky. The other starting receiver, former first-round pick Jordan Addison, missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, but coach Kevin O’Connell on Monday said he was “optimistic” Addison would be in the lineup.

If he does, he’ll draw the combination of Eric Stokes or Carrington Valentine, assuming Valentine is healthy.

Stokes had a nice game against the Titans, but did surrender a touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins.

This game, like most, is likely to be won in the trenches.

Darnold has been prone to turnovers in his career, and the great equalizer for any quarterback is pressure.

Bookend offensive tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill have allowed a total of 12 pressures and two sacks through three games, according to PFF. They are a top-flight tandem, but perhaps there is some opportunity for the Packers’ edge group, which got on track last week.

If you’re going to get pressure against the Vikings, however, it’s going to come from up the middle.

Through three games, Garrett Bradbury and Ed Ingram, Minnesota’s center and right guard, have allowed 20 of the team’s 34 pressures.

Devonte Wyatt has had a strong start to the season with three sacks, including two against the Titans. Kenny Clark has typically played well against Bradbury.

The winner of this strength-vs.-strength matchup likely will go a long way toward winning the game.

Advantage: Packers 

Special Teams

The Packers have had one chance with the new kickoff rule to set up a return, and it was an ill-advised return by Keisean Nixon late in the Packers’ 34-29 loss to the Eagles.

It’s hard to envision this week being any different. While the highlight of Nixon’s career was a 105-yard touchdown vs. the Vikings on New Year’s Day 2023, rookie kicker Will Reichard boasts the fourth-highest touchback percentage.

The punt return game has not had many chances, either, and might not get any against Ryan Wright. He’s punted 11 times and allowed 5 return yards.

Packers punter Daniel Whelan has been excellent and drawn praise from LaFleur each of the last two weeks. Kicker Brayden Narveson’s perfect day on Sunday gets an asterisk because he missed a 48-yard field goal that was wiped away due to a penalty.

That would be three misses in three weeks for Narveson. While Brian Gutekunst and LaFleur have preached patience, that’s not going to cut it. Narveson needs to be more consistent.

Minnesota is breaking in a new kicker, as well, after Greg Joseph signed in Green Bay. Reichard is perfect on field goals (five attempts) and extra points (10 attempts). His consistency gives the Vikings a slight advantage.

Advantage: Vikings

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Jacob Westendorf

JACOB WESTENDORF