Packers vs. Colts: Three Reasons to Believe

Can the Green Bay Packers beat the Indianapolis Colts without Jordan Love? Yes. Here are three reasons why.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs will attack the NFL's worst run defense against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With Jordan Love not expected to play, can Malik Willis lead the Green Bay Packers to an upset victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lambeau Field?

Yes, and here is why.

1. Ride Josh Jacobs

Last week, the Colts were absolutely destroyed on the ground by the Texans. In Houston’s 29-27 victory, the Colts gave up a league-worst 213 rushing yards and a 28th-ranked 5.33 yards per carry. Joe Mixon ran for a league-high 159 rushing yards. Mixon, who hasn’t averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry for a season since 2018, averaged 5.3 yards even without a single run of more than 13 yards.

So, it wasn’t as if a few big runs skewed the numbers. It was that the Colts were beaten again and again. And again.

It’ll be different circumstances this week. For fear of Houston’s high-octane passing attack, the Colts – in the words of defensive coordinator Gus Bradley – played the run on the way to the quarterback.

There probably will be no such worries for the Colts this week. They can key in on Josh Jacobs in hopes of forcing the ball into the hands of Willis, who by kickoff on Sunday will be in Green Bay for 18 days.

“We know that we can defend the run when we do things properly,” Bradley told reporters in Indianapolis this week. “We’ve got to do a better job of tackling, better job of edge setting. We were with Josh in Vegas and he’s a really, really talented back and runs the outside zone and inside zone very well.

“They’re a committed run team. They want to run the ball and have play-action off of it. We’ve got to be at our best in terms of run game, and we’ve got to get this corrected and we will.”

While the Colts were vulnerable last week, the Packers were explosive in their loss to the Eagles, exiting Week 1 with a league-high 7.8 yards per carry. It was too much all-or-nothing, but if the Packers can get Jacobs into the open field for runs of 33 and 22 yards and Emanuel Wilson can rip off gains of 14, 18 and 9 yards, as was the case last week, then there’s no reason why they can’t gain 4 or 5 or 6 yards with consistency.

“That’s kind of how the run game goes,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said on Thursday. “You just keep leaning on them, you keep leaning on them, and you start popping runs. So, I think that’s a testament to those guys up front. As the game went along, you’re able to find those seams and wear them out and Josh hit some big ones.”

2. Perimeter Mismatches and Big-Play Potential

One reason why Willis was considered a potential first-round pick entering the 2022 NFL Draft was his “rocket-launching right arm.” So, this was an interesting answer from Christian Watson when he was asked about Willis’ deep ball at practice this week.

“It’s looking good. I think Rome probably had 400 yards today on deep shots,” Watson said. “So, if we can carry that over to Sunday, it’ll be pretty good.”

Doubs smiled when asked on Friday.

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“He threw everything on time,” he said. “We were very much in sync as an offensive group. I think his process and his progress since he’s gotten here has been really good.”

If Love was healthy and starting, he might be in line for a monster day. Last week, Houston’s C.J. Stroud completed 75.0 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Nico Collins caught six passes for 117 yards and Stefon Diggs scored two touchdowns.

Indianapolis will be down two secondary starters. Premier safety Julian Blackmon, who had four interceptions last year, has been ruled out and starting cornerback JuJu Brents landed on injured reserve this week.

The strength of the Packers, of course, is their plethora of skill-position weapons. Watson, Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks should have advantages against perimeter cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Dallis Flowers.

“I think that regardless of what the defense is doing, we’ve got a bunch of playmakers in our room and we can find those voids,” Watson said.

“I definitely think we have some opportunities to make some plays, in every aspect of our offense, really. I think the more we can do in the run game, the more we’re going to be able to do in the pass game; and, obviously, the more we’re doing in the pass game, the easier it’s going to be in the run game, as well.”

3. Erratic Colts QB Anthony Richardson

Here’s an unusual statistical duality. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson exited Week 1 ranked next-to-last in completion percentage but first in yards per attempt.

While Richardson was 9-of-19 passing, that included three completions of 50-plus yards, including long touchdowns by Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin.

“Sometimes, it’s just a route we’re getting better and better at seeing or understanding how our guys are running,” Colts offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter told reporters in Indy this week. “Sometimes, when these guys are competing full speed, full blast, you’re not quite able to finish a throw up top, or maybe that defender does flash underneath some things. So, it’s a little bit of a complex sport.

“Our guys did a good job of making those explosive plays in the game. As we develop our offense this year, as we improve each week, we’re going to want to be a little more consistent in the pass game, and I think we will. But it’s going to take constant, continuous improvement by all of us on offense. You know, this NFL quarterbacking thing is a good challenge every week – get out there and freaking play good ball and throw the ball where you want to every single time. They’re going to keep working at it.”

Clearly, Packers cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes need big games. They must play with discipline and a longer-than-usual play clock because of Richardson’s incredible arm strength.

The Colts’ receivers, not unlike the Packers’ receivers, are underrated. Michael Pittman finished fifth in the league in receptions last year, and Pierce, Dulin and rookie Adonai Mitchell have game-breaking potential. But none of them compare to the Eagles’ premier duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

If Alexander bounces back after giving up more than 100 yards to Brown and if Stokes has another strong performance, the defense should be able to give the offense a fighting chance.

“We’re going to line up every down and do everything we can to stop them and force them to punt,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “No matter who lines up at quarterback for us, I hope the mindset never changes.

“You got into every game with the mindset you’re playing the best team in the NFL and the players in the NFL. We’ve got to give everything we’ve got and not worry about anything else. We’ve got to take the ball away and give it back to our offense. That’s who we have to be. Over and over and over. We’ve got to get off the field on third down and we’ve got to play better than we did last week, and I can’t wait to get back out there.”

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It's going to be an uphill battle today for the #Packers. Here are three reasons why they could be 0-2 by the end of the day. ⬇️https://t.co/2VCxFM32LA

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 15, 2024

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