Packers vs. Colts: Three Reasons to Worry

The Indianapolis Colts might have a big star at quarterback. The Green Bay Packers have a big question mark. Here are three reasons why the Packers could lose to the Colts on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor avoids Green Bay Packers defender Preston Smith in 2020. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will face the Indianapolis Colts in a battle of 0-1 teams on Sunday at Lambeau Field. There are plenty of reasons why the Packers could lose, first and foremost the absence of Jordan Love.

Here are this week’s three reasons to worry.

1. No Jordan Love and Maybe No Running Game, Either

In a perfect world, the Packers would have two overwhelming advantages. One would be their plethora of perimeter targets going against the Colts’ struggling and injury-depleted secondary. The second would be their running game attacking a Colts defense that exited Week 1 ranked 32nd in rushing yards allowed and 28th in rushing yards allowed per carry.

All of that goes out the window without Love, though.

Can Malik Willis, a member of the Packers for less than three weeks, run a passing game with enough efficiency that the Colts have to respect it? Does Willis know the plays at a high enough level that he can play without thinking? Does he know the adjustments? Will he be able to find his third read on a key third down? Does he have chemistry with the receivers?

And even if he can function perfectly well from a playbook perspective, is he a good enough player to actually win a game?

Willis started three games as a rookie for the Tennessee Titans in 2022 and was terrible. His best statistical game (99 passing yards) was also his worst (two interceptions, one fumble). The Titans scored a total of 48 points, and never more than 17.

Of course, 2022 is ancient history and probably not relevant. Willis is more experienced, and these Packers have a lot more passing-game firepower than those Titans. However, they dumped a former third-round pick for a seventh-round pick in last month’s trade. Clearly, even after his solid preseason, they didn’t see much value in a player who’s never gotten close to reaching his immense upside.

If the Colts don’t have to respect the pass, how will the Packers – whose running game ran really hot or really cold against the Eagles – be able to mount a winning rushing attack against consistently stacked boxes?

While Indianapolis’ run defense was shredded last week by Houston, it had all week to fix those issues and could face a predictable offensive attack.

“We’re expecting, obviously, a heavy run game, especially with what we put on film last week because they’ve got Josh Jacobs and he’s a really good back,” Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner told reporters this week. “They probably don’t want to put the game in Malik Willis’ hands. So, just expecting a lot of run game.”

Even if Jacobs has success, it’s hard to win games via only a running game. The Titans went 1-2 in Willis’ three starts even with Derrick Henry leading the Titans to an incredible 670 rushing yards.

2. Colts’ Deep Pass Rush

One of the Colts’ strengths is a deep and powerful pass rush.

Last season, DeForest Buckner, Samson Ebukam, Dayo Odeyingbo and Kwity Paye all had at least seven sacks. Over the last decade, only the 2022 Eagles had more players with seven-plus sacks in a season. Led by Ebukam’s 9.5 sacks, the Colts finished eighth in the league in sack percentage.

To that group, they used a first-round pick on UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, who finished fourth in the nation with 13 sacks and first with 21.5 tackles for losses last year. As one scout told NFL.com before the draft, Latu was “easily the most skilled pass rusher in the draft.”

The Colts had four sacks in last week’s 29-27 loss against Houston. Buckner had 1.5 sacks and Latu had five pressures, according to Sports Info Solutions.

A strong pass rush is bad news for any quarterback, but especially one who might not be entirely sure of where to find his checkdown.

“They do a great job penetrating,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said on Thursday. “They’re pretty deep across the board, and I think you can tell these guys work together and their pick stunts and everything really well. It’s impressive to watch them. They’re coached well and they do a good job with their twists and picks to create seams and get sacks. They’re pretty productive, a really good group.”

3. Anthony Richardson Leads Big-Play Offense

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed only 9-of-19 passes in the loss to Houston. However, he finished with 212 passing yards because of completions of 60 yards to Alec Pierce for a touchdown, 57 yards to Pierce to set up a touchdown and 54 yards to Ashton Dulin for a touchdown. Plus, with the size of a linebacker and the speed of a defensive back, Richardson rushed for 56 yards on a 9.3 average.

Going 9-of-19 is not going to be winning football most weeks. It wasn’t good enough against a high-caliber opponent like Houston. However, those three plays created 21 points. Will the Packers be able to cobble together enough offense to keep up?

“Talented player,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Fast. He’s big, he’s strong. You’re going to have the threat of him running the ball on first and second down, so you have to be aware of that, and then he can throw the ball as far as any quarterback I’ve ever seen in my life.

“So, you’ve got to make sure this isn’t a guy who just is a running quarterback. You saw what he did on those nine completions last week. It almost won them the game. He’s got some serious arm talent. Hasn’t played in very many games, so he’s just going to get better and better with his touch and his accuracy and the timing and rhythm with the wideouts that he’s playing with, but he’s a talented guy. He’s a really good football player.”

It helps that the Colts have a bunch of perimeter playmakers. Pierce (second round, 2022 draft) stands 6-foot-3 1/8 and has 4.41 speed. Josh Downs (third round, 2023 draft) is only 5-foot-8 3/4 but has 4.48 speed. Adonai Mitchell (second round, 2024) stands 6-foot-2 1/4 and has 4.35 speed. Dulin (undrafted, 2019) stands 6-foot-1 3/8 and has 4.43 speed.

Oh, and then there’s former Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor. His 4.39 speed is why his career average is 4.9 yards per rush.

That’s a lot of, ahem, horsepower on the Colts.

“It’s going to be a great challenge,” coach Matt LaFleur said.

More Green Bay Packers News

“I asked if we could bring out a JUGS machine on some pass plays and launch them up. I don’t know many people that can throw the ball that far.”

On Colts QB Anthony Richardson, Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary at Detroit and Sunday's #Packers-Colts game. ⬇️https://t.co/Km1K5sdVQh

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 13, 2024

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