Packers vs. Dolphins: Five Keys to Thanksgiving Showdown

The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins will battle on Thanksgiving night at Lambeau Field. The keys to victory start with dealing with Miami’s explosive offense.

Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill (10) catches the football against Packers safeties Rudy Ford (20) and Adrian Amos (31) in 2022. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Green Bay Packers will host the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving night in a crucial matchup for both teams.

The Packers are 8-3 and in good shape in the NFC playoff chase but face one of the toughest closing schedules in the league. They have won six in a row against AFC opponents.

The Dolphins’ record is only 5-6 but they have won three in a row to get back into the AFC playoff race. They have an explosive offense capable of striking at any time.

Here are five keys to the game as Green Bay goes for a third consecutive victory.

One: Locking Down ‘Cheetah’ and Waddle

The Dolphins boast one of the NFL’s most dynamic receiving duos in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill has recorded 49 receptions for 571 yards and three touchdowns this season, while Waddle has contributed 41 receptions for 548 yards and two touchdowns.

Due in part to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s four-game absence, Hill’s production is down from his blistering pace from last year, when he had 88 catches for 1,324 yards and 10 touchdowns by this point. Still, his ability to score at a moment’s notice is undeniable.

“It’s pretty impressive what I’ve seen him do this year,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Everybody’s trying to take him out of the game, and they’re still not doing a very good job of it. We better know where he is, or he could have another one of those games like you’re talking about.”

Hill is coming off four consecutive seasons of 1,200-plus receiving yards and led the NFL last year with 1,799 and 13 touchdowns. Waddle topped 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons. He is coming off a huge game in the win over New England.

“Those guys, you’ve got to be on top of it at all times,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “If you give them a step, they’re capable of taking it. Whether it’s Tyreek, Waddle or their backs (Raheem) Mostert and (De’Von) Achane, they’ve got explosive playmaking ability. They can take a ball 70 or 80 yards. It’s a great challenge for us.”

Slowing down Hill and Waddle will require discipline and constant awareness, as even the slightest lapse could lead to game-changing plays.

Two: Keep Spreading the Rock

Jordan Love showed off his ability to spread the ball last week. Even with a run-first attack leading to just 23 passing attempts, Love connected with seven different targets in the victory over the 49ers.

With Romeo Doubs likely out due to a concussion, Love will need to rely on other options like Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft and the rest of the Packers’ young receiving corps.

This group is packed with potential and hungry for opportunities to deliver breakout performances.

“Rome, he’s such a problem if you get him one-on-one with DBs,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “He’s an excellent route-runner and he can win in the quick game, over the middle and on the long ball.

“The one thing he’s done great that people might not notice is his run-blocking. He’s becoming a complete wideout for us. If he’s not out there, I trust our depth, and I think these guys are going to do a great job stepping up.”

For the Packers, the key will be maintaining the same rhythm and balance they’ve developed, despite missing Doubs’ versatility. Love’s ability to involve multiple playmakers will force Miami to cover every inch of the field.

Whether it’s Watson stretching the field, Reed working underneath or Kraft finding soft spots in coverage, the Packers’ next-man-up mentality will be put to the test. To keep pace with the Dolphins’ high-powered offense, Green Bay must turn depth into a strength.

Three: Dominating the AFC

The Packers have been unstoppable against AFC opponents in 2024, boasting a perfect 4-0 record with wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans.

This streak makes the Packers one of only four teams undefeated against the AFC this year, alongside Detroit (4-0), Minnesota (5-0) and Philadelphia (3-0). This season, Green Bay has extended its dominance to six straight wins over AFC teams, tying their longest streak since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

This level of dominance is rare for the Packers, as it marks only the third time in franchise history that they’ve won four consecutive games against AFC teams in a single season (previously in 1995 and 2007).

Under LaFleur, Green Bay has consistently excelled in these interconference matchups, compiling an 18-9 record since 2019. That .667 winning percentage is the best in the NFC and ranks third in the NFL during that span.

At Lambeau Field, the Packers have been especially tough to beat, going 11-2 against AFC teams under LaFleur, a league-best .846 winning percentage. Even on the road, they’ve held their own with a .500 record (7-7). That includes a 26-20 win at Miami on Christmas 2022.

Love has been a major factor in this year’s success, leading the Packers to victories in his last four starts against AFC teams. Over those games, Love has thrown for 1,005 yards with eight touchdowns, three interceptions and an impressive 102.1 passer rating.

Four: Make Tua Uncomfortable

Since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, Miami’s offense has been a model of efficiency and ranks among the NFL’s best in several key metrics.

Over their last five games, the Dolphins are second in third-down conversions (55 percent). They rank fifth in points per game (29.0) and seventh in first downs per game (22.2). Miami leads the league in scoring drive rate at 56.3 percent and trails only Detroit with 3.02 points per drive.

The Dolphins’ ability to move the chains and sustain drives has been critical. They’ve won three consecutive games, including back-to-back 34-point outings.

While Tagovailoa has been sacked seven times the last three weeks, he’s been pressured on just 25.0 percent of his dropbacks, fourth-lowest in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. That will stress a Packers pass rush that has not applied consistent pressure.

“Tua does such a great job of throwing with anticipation,” LaFleur said. “He’s as good as it gets in this league. You’ve got to disrupt the timing somehow, whether it’s getting him off the spot, because he’ll make you pay. He’s accurate, the ball comes out fast, and that gives his guys, who we know have incredible speed, the chance to make plays after the catch.”

Pressure up front will be critical in helping Green Bay’s secondary, which probably will play without premier cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee)

Five: No Turnovers

Last week, Love finally snapped his streak of throwing interceptions in nine straight games dating to last year’s playoff loss to the 49ers. On Sunday, Love and the Packers played a clean game, avoiding turnovers entirely, a significant step forward for a team that ranks in the middle of the pack with 18 giveaways.

“It was huge,” Love said. “Definitely something that we’ve talked about all year and been a focus for us. We talk about it going into every game, winning the ball, and, obviously, it starts with us, being great with ball security, and then defense being able to generate turnovers. Definitely something we’ll have to continue.”

Love credited improved decision-making for his clean performance.

“It just comes down to understanding what the defense is trying to do, seeing the coverage, and obviously post-snap recognizing if they’re bluffing or disguising. After that, it’s about finding completions. We want to push the ball downfield, but if we don’t have a great play, understanding where to go and finding those checkdowns.”

Miami is tied for 18th with 11 takeaways and tied for 16th with seven interceptions.

That turnover-free game showcased how dangerous the Packers can be when they protect the football. Against a Dolphins team that can capitalize on mistakes, maintaining that focus will be critical.

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#Packers safety Xavier McKinney is tied for No. 1 in the NFL in interceptions and has more picks than most teams. ⬇️https://t.co/wDp0aZFo1g

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 27, 2024

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