Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Eagles

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet in a Week 1 showdown on Friday night in Brazil. Here are three reasons why the Packers will earn an upset victory.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) gestures after a first down against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers aren’t hiding from the Super Bowl hype.

“We have expectations that are higher than a lot of the world probably is,” receiver Christian Watson said this week.

Super Bowls aren’t won or lost in Week 1, but the Packers – who are 2.5-point underdogs – could put their stamp on being contenders with a victory over the powerhouse Philadelphia Eagles tonight in Brazil.

Here are three reasons why they will win.

1. Too Many Weapons

The strength of Green Bay’s offense is the embarrassment of riches for quarterback Jordan Love. What defense has enough defensive backs to handle a five-person grab bag of skill-position talent including receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton, running back Josh Jacobs and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft?

Perhaps not the Eagles. Starting cornerback Isaiah Rodgers is out with an injured hand and second-round cornerback Cooper DeJean missed the first few weeks of training camp with a hamstring injury.

“I think he’s as prepared as he can be but, having said that, not where he needs to be,” new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio told reporters in Philadelphia when asked about DeJean this week.

The Eagles will line up with veteran Darius Slay and 2024 first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell as the No. 1 corners, with 2023 fourth-round pick Kelee Ringo entering in nickel situations, when Mitchell would move to the slot. Slay is a quality starter but he’s also 33. Mitchell could be a stud in time, but rookie corners tend to take their lumps. Ringo played 199 snaps as a rookie.

So, from Green Bay’s perspective, this should be the perfect time to face the Eagles.

While the Packers could have the element-of-surprise advantage with new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, even the 66-year-old Fangio saw no advantage in his first-year status before delving into the many challenges of facing Green Bay’s offense.

“They certainly have a lot of tape to watch of places I’ve been. So, no, I don’t think [he has an advantage],” he told reporters. “Where do you start with a quarterback like Jordan Love and that sort of dual-threat ability?

“The biggest problem in defending their offense is they run it just as good as they throw it. They have a really good mix on first- and second-down run and play action, and it makes it hard to defend. And then you throw in a scrambling, mobile quarterback. It adds another dimension to it. They’re really tough to defend. They run it and throw it equally well, and you throw in an athletic quarterback, and it’ll be an all-day sucker.”

2. Element of Surprise on Defense

New Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is a man of mystery. After spending three years as the 49ers’ defensive backs coach, he was defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2019 and head coach at Boston College from 2020 through 2023.

All of that experience is irrelevant for new Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. While Fangio is an open book with 24 seasons as an NFL defensive coordinator or head coach, Hafley’s book is more like a diary.

While Dom Capers emptied the kitchen sink in the preseason when he took over as defensive coordinator in 2009, Hafley mostly stuck to a handful of basic calls during the preseason.

“I hope they’re watching a lot of different stuff,” Hafley said this week. “I’m not going to tell them whether they should or shouldn’t be watching that stuff. I really don’t know what they’d be watching, to be honest with you. They’ll probably watch some of our preseason stuff, but I’m not sure what they’ll do. They’ve got to figure that part out.”

Moore is in his first season as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator, but he was the Cowboys’ coordinator from 2019 through 2022 and the Chargers’ OC in 2023. While he’ll no doubt put a fresh spin on things, his experience with Dallas’ Dak Prescott and Los Angeles’ Justin Herbert should give Hafley an inkling of how Moore will use Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.

“Any time you go into a season and there’s a change at coordinator, you find yourself watching a lot of different film,” Hafley said. “You’re watching Eagles personnel, you’re watching the Chargers, you’re watching things that he might’ve done in the past in other places that he’s been.

“You don’t want to find yourself Week 1 looking at too much and you’re starting to see ghosts and things that aren’t really what they’re going to do, because it’s Week 1 and who knows how much they’ve changed, how much they’re going to rely on what they’ve done in the past, how much he’s going to change with the players that he has. 

“So, ultimately, Week 1, you’ve got to do what you do best. You’ve got to play sound with good fundamentals, good technique, you’ve got to play hard, you’ve got to tackle, you’ve got to get off blocks, you’ve got to make plays on the football. But it’s always a challenge early in the season because you don’t have a lot of data.”

One thing to note: Hafley’s defense intercepted a lot of passes at training camp and seemed to genuinely confuse Love at times. Last season, Hurts threw 15 interceptions – third-most in the league.

3. Situational Football

There’s some projection here, and it’s quite possible none of this will hold up in the game.

However, the Eagles last season ranked 31st on third down (46.4 percent conversion rate), 30th in the red zone (66.1 percent touchdowns) and 28th in goal-to-go situations (80.7 percent touchdowns).

Last year, Fangio was the defensive coordinator in Miami. His defense ranked 20th on third down (38.9 percent conversions), 28th in the red zone (64.8 percent touchdowns) and 20th in goal-to-go (75.0 percent touchdowns).

On offense, the Packers finished fifth on third down (47.1 percent conversions), 19th in the red zone (51.6 percent touchdowns) and No. 1 in goal-to-go (95.0 percent touchdowns).

On plays starting at or inside the 10, Love threw 18 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions and trailed only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes in passer rating. Romeo Doubs was tied for No. 1 with six touchdowns and Jayden Reed was tied for eighth with four touchdowns.

So, on paper, those are tremendous advantages for the Packers. We’ll find out if that translates into production.

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