Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat the Lions

The Green Bay Packers are home underdogs for Sunday’s NFC North clash of the titans against the Detroit Lions. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs will need to be at his tackle-breaking best against the Detroit Lions. / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 2.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North showdown against the Detroit Lions.

How rare is that? This will be the 50th home game coached by Matt LaFleur. He’s been an underdog seven times, including last year’s 34-20 loss to the Lions.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions this time.

1. Josh Jacobs

There’s a reason why Jacobs hasn’t gotten an abundance of touches in some games. It’s so he can be at his best for games like this one.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback, the offense figures to start with Jacobs. Jacobs led the way in the Week 2 win over the Colts, when Willis started, and last week at Jacksonville, when Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s run defense is its one weakness. Well, weakness might be a strong word, but the Lions are 22nd with 4.66 yards allowed per carry this season and 19th in schedule-adjusted expected points. They have yielded more than 130 rushing yards in three of their last four games.

Fixing it was a priority this week.

“Yeah, it’s something that we take note of,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, set edges, and let our backers flow and make plays. We’ll be padding up [at Thursday’s practice], we’ll be bringing it, and that’s the best way.

“You want to get better at it, you want to work on it? You have to work on it full speed, just like a game situation and get some live reps at it. So, we’re going to keep doing that because we know teams are going to keep attacking us that way.”

Jacobs leads the NFL in rushes and touches and is fourth in rushing yards. Of 44 backs with at least 50 carries, Jacobs is eighth with 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in missed-tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Detroit’s defense is 27th in missed-tackle percentage, according to PFF.

“Very physical. They fly around as a unit,” Jacobs said. “They got a lot of guys who have played a lot of high-level ball. It’s going to be one of them games. It’s going to be a playoff-type game. We’ll see. We’ll see how it goes.”

Jacobs has broken 31 tackles this season, according to PFF, compared to 28 all of last year. His yards after contact is the best mark of his career.

It’s not just Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with Aaron Jones-led Packers rushing attacks. Jacobs has brought a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, Glenn said.

“There’s something about acquiring a back that has pellets on the wall and to change the mindset,” Glenn told reporters on Thursday. “To see how he is in the NFL and the violent, physical, runner that he is, you just know that their offensive line looks forward to blocking for that man. There’s a tick-up on how they’re operating as far as the violence and the physical nature of the game because of who they have running the ball.

“So, it’s going to be a challenge for us and we have to do everything we can to make sure we stop that because, if you let that happen, that’s not good for a defense to allow a team to run the ball and then be able to have the play-action passes that they have with these receivers that they have. So, we have to do a good job in that aspect.”

2. Jayden Reed

One of those receivers is Jayden Reed, who has emerged as the Packers’ biggest threat. “This guy’s a playmaking dude,” Campbell said. Reed leads the teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4-yard average.

According to PFF, 65 receivers have been targeted at least 30 times. Reed is second with 8.5 yards after the catch per catch and is tied for 15th with six missed tackles. His 15 explosive plays (runs and catches) are only three behind Derrick Henry’s league-leading total.

Noteworthy for this game is that Reed has done most of his damage in the slot, where he’s eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, tied for fourth with three touchdowns, sixth with 8.2 YAC per catch and second with a 142.0 passer rating when targeted.

The Lions are vulnerable in the slot with Amik Robertson. Of 28 defensive backs to play at least 100 slot coverage snaps, he’s allowed the fifth-most yards, the third-most yards per snap and a 101.1 passer rating, according to PFF.

Fantasy football isn’t real football but the Lions have allowed the most fantasy-football points to slot receivers, according to Razzball.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions traded up in a deal with the Packers to land safety Brian Branch. The Packers traded back one more time before selecting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you see right now with the way he’s playing,” Campbell said. “Here’s what you knew; He was competitive, he was explosive, had speed. … He can locate it, sticky hands, feisty blocker, competitive. Man, he’ll get after you in the run game. And he’s a very smart, very smart player. He’s coming into his own and he continues to get better and, to me, he’s a force and we’re going to have to be ready for him as well as those other receivers.”

3. Takeaways

The Packers are 6-2 in large part because of Jeff Hafley’s defense, which is No. 1 with 19 takeaways, No. 1 with nine recovered fumbles and No. 2 with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, is No. 2 in turnover margin at plus-10. Only three teams have fewer giveaways than Detroit’s five. The Lions have lost only one fumble and Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Packers have what they call a “ball meeting” to highlight the importance of taking care of the football. The Lions place a similar emphasis. So much so that a member of the Titans’ staff tried to get the secrets of success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle 4-0 last week.

“It’s constant harping on it as coaches,” Johnson told reporters on Thursday. “It gets old, it gets redundant but, at some point, these guys, I think, hear it in the back of their minds when they’re carrying the ball down the field.

“We have a quarterback right now that is playing very smart, sound football. He’s taking care of the ball. If it presents it to him down the field, he’ll throw it; he’s got no problem ripping a dagger or throwing a post down the field. But teams that we keep seeing get all this depth, he’ll check it down. So, he’s just being very smart and deliberate with how he’s attacking coverages right now. So, that’s keeping the ball out of harm's way from an interception standpoint.”

Goff is playing at about the highest level imaginable, but he has been sacked eight times the last two games and fumbled four times. So, there could be opportunities for the type of Edgerrin Cooper-style sack/strip that swung last week’s win in Jacksonville.

“I think it starts up front, just like in any game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best that we’ve seen, and then they have two really good running backs. So, we really have to defend the run. They’re explosive, they’re powerful and their offensive line is really good.

“They built it the right way. They’ve built it from inside out, but it’s got to start with the run. Obviously, they have good wide receivers, they have a really good tight end and the quarterback is as efficient right now as any quarterback in the NFL. I think they’re coaching really well. I think their whole staff does a great job with their scheme and then what they’ve done with the quarterback this year in his efficiency, it’s been very impressive.”

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