Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to the Lions

The Detroit Lions have won five in a row and might be the most complete team in the NFL. They will pose an enormous challenge to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) shouts instructions against the Green Bay Packers last season. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will face their biggest challenge of the season on Sunday when they host the Detroit Lions.

The Lions (6-1) have the best record in the NFC. They have won five in a row and lead the NFL in scoring differential. They are coming off a 38-point victory over the Titans in which their seven touchdowns came on a 70-yard touchdown run, a 90-yard punt return and five drives of less than 30 yards.

Yes, Green Bay is better than Tennessee. But the Lions are much, much better than the Texans and Jaguars, who the Packers beat with last-play field goals.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose to the Lions.

1. Unstoppable Lions Offense

The Lions are No. 1 in the NFL in points, No. 3 in passing yards per play, No. 5 in rushing yards per play. They are seventh on third down and in the red zone. They have the fourth-fewest turnovers, with just one lost fumble this season and no interceptions since Week 3.

Jared Goff is the hottest quarterback in the NFL. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs provide thunder and lightning in the backfield. Amon-Ra St. Brown is an elite receiver and Sam LaPorta is on his way to being an elite tight end. And the offensive line, led by right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow, is as good as it gets.

Green Bay’s defense took its lumps last week at Jacksonville, but two takeaways were the difference in a 30-27 win.

“I just think we’re getting better overall on defense,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “I think we’ll still be more consistent, but our guys are playing faster, they’re more physical, we’re getting off the ball up front. They’re starting to understand the scheme more and the technique more up front. I think our linebacker play has been better. It’ll be nice to have Quay (Walker) back.”

The big problem will be Goff against a Packers secondary that won’t have rookie safety Evan Williams (hamstring) and might not have cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee; didn’t practice all week).

Goff is on a heater. Over the last five games, Goff has completed 83.0 percent of his passes with a 146.5 passer rating, the best marks for any quarterback over a five-game span in NFL history. The Lions have scored more touchdowns than Goff has thrown incompletions during that stretch. He has thrown 10 touchdowns with only 13 incompletions the last four games.

The team’s preferred secondary of Alexander and Keisean Nixon at corner, Javon Bullard in the slot and Xavier McKinney and Williams at safety had played well. Once Williams exited in the second quarter last week, the Packers couldn’t handle the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence.

How are they going to handle Goff and St. Brown if Alexander is inactive? Alexander has allowed one catch in each of the last three games. The pressure will be on cornerbacks Eric Stokes, who has struggled, and Carrington Valentine, who’s barely played, to man the cornerback spots if that’s how the Packers line up.

Among players through 56 games in their career, St. Brown ranks fourth in receptions. Since the start of the 2023 season, he is second in receiving yards and first downs and third in receiving yards. He’s caught a touchdown pass in five consecutive games.

“He’s just so competitive,” Packers defensive passing game coordinator Derrick Ansley said. “You can feel him on the tape. He has a strong, lower build to the ground, so you have to really tackle him and get on his body.”

2. Big-Play Lions Defense

The Packers have feasted on takeaways all season.

So have the Lions.

Detroit is tied for second in takeaways (15) and interceptions (10). While Green Bay’s Xavier McKinney is first with six interceptions, Lions safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are second and third with five and four interceptions, respectively.

“Anytime you can create pressure on the quarterback, you create throws that may not be the right decisions or just throws that are quicker than normal,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “Both those guys have phenomenal ball skills. Those guys make some pretty good plays that most safeties don’t make, just as far as catching it in difficult situations.

“Joseph does a really good job just reading the eyes of the quarterback and being in the right place at the right time. Yeah, they’re a good one-two punch back there. They do a really good job.”

As a rookie in 2022, Joseph had three interceptions and five passes defensed against Aaron Rodgers in the two matchups. Branch had 15 tackles and two breakups against the Packers as a rookie last year.

Of course, one of the biggest problems this season has been Jordan Love’s overly aggressive play. Even while missing two-and-a-half games, no quarterback has thrown more interceptions than Love’s nine.

“Joseph and Branch, they’re definitely ballhawk players,” Love said. “They have a knack for making those big-time plays. We’ve seen those guys. We have a feel for them, and you’ve just got to always be smart with the ball, be picky, make great reads. I know who those guys are, they’re very good players, very talented and it’s no surprise they’re making big-time plays back there.”

Also of note: The Lions on defense are first on third down (30.7 percent conversions) and ninth in the red zone (47.4 percent touchdowns). Green Bay on offense is 15th on third down (39.0 percent) and 25th in the red zone (50.0 percent). The Packers can’t afford to lose both of those areas.

3. Explosive Lions Special Teams

Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia took an unusual approach to his Thursday news conference. He brought a sheet of paper with notes, making sure to highlight every one of the challenges brought by Detroit’s special teams.

It took him about 90 seconds to get through it.

“I’ll get started with obviously the big challenge this week at home with the Lions coming in,” Bisaccia began. “It kind of starts really with their head coach.”

Dan Campbell emphasizes special teams, and coordinator Dave Fipp has built an explosive unit in his fourth season.

Last week against the Titans, Kalif Raymond had a 90-yard touchdown on a punt return, a 64-yard punt return to set up a touchdown and a 44-yard punt return that was nullified by a penalty. Plus, Khalil Dorsey had a 72-yard return on a kickoff.

“He’s hard to handle,” Bisaccia said of Raymond. “He’s got great speed. He’s playing fearless right now. He’s playing with a lot of confidence and certainly can go the distance. Then on the other side, the kickoff return game, Dorsey has done a heck of a job. He’s had two really big returns. He’s got enough speed to go the distance, as well.”

Punter Jack Fox is No. 1 with a 47.3-yard net average. Kicker Jake Bates, who was a hot commodity after the UFL season, is 11-of-11 on field goals and 27-of-28 on extra points; Bisaccia didn’t think Bates missed the extra point.

With Fipp and Campbell, the Packers have to be alert for a fake at any time; the Packers stopped one last year at Ford Field in a crucial play.

The Packers’ coverage units have been solid this season, ranking seventh on punts and 14th on kickoffs. But they haven’t faced a special teams with the all-around power of the Lions, and the rain could create a slick field that works to the returners’ advantage.

“These guys are as good of a team as we’ve played,” Fipp said of the Packers. “They’re super-talented, they’re big, they’re physical, they’re tough.

“They play arguably one of their best wideouts back there at punt return, No. 11 (Jayden Reed). We all know who 25 (Keisean Nixon) is. These guys across the board are really good. So, for us, we’ve got to go out there and expect their very, very best, and we have to play our very, very best one more time.”

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The #Packers' pass rush, which has run hot and cold, must catch fire against the Lions' standout offensive line on Sunday. ⬇️https://t.co/0rnsGnBP2p

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 1, 2024

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