Packer Central

Super Bowl, MVP Odds Take Major Swing After Packers’ Loss, Love’s Injury

With Jordan Love sidelined with a knee injury, the Green Bay Packers have the longest odds to win the NFC North and Love’s MVP chances of evaporated.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is hit by Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (98) on Friday.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is hit by Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (98) on Friday. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – How much is Jordan Love worth to the Green Bay Packers?

(Other than $220 million.)

The opening line for the Packers’ Week 2 game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lambeau Field had Green Bay favored by 3.5 points. With Love suffering a knee injury against the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday night, the Colts are favored by 3.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook.

That’s a seven-point swing.

The line was Colts by 3 on Sunday morning.

Before the season, veteran sports betting writer Ben Fawkes talked to 11 oddsmakers from 10 sportsbooks and asked how the line would vary between the starting quarterback and his backup quarterback.

Love had the fifth-largest impact at 6.04 points against the spread, that number a combination of Love’s second-half-of-the-season dominance and the unknown quantity of the backup quarterback, which was Sean Clifford at the time.

“I’m higher on Love than 95 percent of the industry, probably,” one oddsmaker told Fawkes for his Substack. “The hype might be a bit high on him this year, but Green Bay has a great chance of making the playoffs again. Clifford doesn’t do much for me, it’s a big drop-off. I have Love third-highest, tied with Jared Goff, in terms of point-spread difference.”

Packers Odds Change Following Jordan Love’s Injury

Love’s knee injury, which will not require surgery, will keep him out for at least a few weeks. His absence resulted in a huge swing in several categories.

Super Bowl: The Packers opened the season at +1900 to win the Super Bowl. Those were tied for the ninth-shortest odds. Now Green Bay is +3400, which is tied for 13th.

NFC North: The Packers opened at +195 to dethrone the Detroit Lions atop the division. Now, with Green Bay being the only 0-1 team in the division, Detroit is a huge favorite at -145, followed by the Chicago Bears at +400 and the Packers and Vikings tied at +550.

Playoffs: The Packers opened at -164 to make the playoffs. By implied probability, Green Bay had a 62.1 percent chance to reach the postseason. Now, Green Bay’s at +146, or an implied probability of 40.7 percent.

Win total: The Packers opened with an over/under of 9.5 wins. That’s down to 8.5.

With the Packers starting 0-1 and the prospect of Love missing a few games, they have the eighth-shortest odds to be the last winless team. The Carolina Panthers are the favorites at +490. The Packers are +1400.

How Does Injury Impact Jordan Love in NFL MVP Race?

Thanks to a ridiculous closing stretch of games last season – 18 touchdowns vs. one interception in the final eight games of the regular season and a three-touchdown demolition of the Cowboys in the playoffs – Love opened the year at +1400 to win MVP. Those were the fifth-shortest odds, with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes the favorite at +450.

Now, Love is practically out of the race. He is +13000, which isn’t too many spots ahead of the Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson and the Tennessee Titans’ Will Levis, who had horrendous games in their teams’ losses on Sunday.

In the NFC North, the Lions’ Jared Goff is +2000, the Bears’ Caleb Williams is +6500 and the Vikings’ Sam Darnold is +20000. Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson has shorter odds than Love (+10000). So does Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who at +3500 will visit Lambeau Field on Sunday.

Headed into Week 1, Love was fourth in MVP bets and third in MVP money at FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More Green Bay Packers News

Three reasons to believe after Week 1 win | Three reasons to worry after Week 1 loss | Ryan Tannehill to the rescue? | Can Willis save the season? | No ACL tear, no surgery for Love | Three Overreactions | Packers-Eagles report card | Offense stumbles in red zone | The latest on Jordan Love | Packers lose, Love injured | Four Downs | Three reasons for optimism in 2024 | Three reasons for disappointment in 2024

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.