Packer Central

Three Overreactions From Packers’ Victory Over Colts

Can the Packers win this way again next week if Malik Willis starts at the Titans? What glaring weakness must be addressed? And what glaring weakness has turned into undeniable strength?

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (29) celebrates his interception against Indianapolis Colts at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (29) celebrates his interception against Indianapolis Colts at Lambeau Field on Sunday. / Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – Playing with one hand tied behind their back, the Green Bay Packers beat the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 on Sunday. It might not have been a season-saving victory in the absence of Jordan Love, but history would not have been on the side of an 0-2 team.

With Malik Willis having the best game of his career, Matt LaFleur conjuring a Lombardi-era game plan and the defense making Anthony Richardson look like just another all-tools, no-accuracy quarterback, here are three overreactions from Green Bay’s huge win.

1. This Is Not Sustainable

The Packers’ formula to beat the Colts is not sustainable.

You know how we know that?

Because it was barely sustainable against the Colts.

The bottom-line numbers were tremendous. With LaFleur sticking to his game plan, the Packers amassed 261 rushing yards on 53 carries. That’s a 4.9-yard average. Josh Jacobs had one of the best days of his career with 32 carries for 151 yards.

However, here are the rushing numbers, broken down by quarters:

First quarter: Jacobs, 10 carries for 81 yards (8.1 average). Team, 20 carries for 164 yards (8.2 average).

Second quarter: Jacobs, 10 carries for 47 yards (4.7 average). Team, 14 carries for 73 yards (5.2 average).

Third quarter: Jacobs: Four carries for 1 yard (0.3 average). Team: Five carries for minus-7 yards (minus-1.4 average).

Fourth quarter: Jacobs: Eight carries for 22 yards (2.8 average). Team: 14 carries for 31 yards (2.2 average).

Who knows why the Colts were so ill-prepared for the Packers’ running game. A bunch of eye-candy misdirection runs got the ball-carriers into open space. That space evaporated as the game wore on.

Without Love, everyone in Lambeau Field knew the Packers were going to run the football. The Colts only stacked the box on 23.4 percent of Green Bay’s non-Willis runs, so it wasn’t as if the Packers were consistently outnumbered at the point of attack. There just wasn’t much room to maneuver after the first half.

A run defined as a “success” keeps the offense on schedule, such as a first-and-10 run that gains 4 yards. Of 32 players with at least 10 carries in Week 2, Jacobs ranks 18th in success rate at 50.0 percent. However, he was 3-of-12 (25.0 percent) in the second half.

With the Packers gaining only five first downs in five second-half possessions, the Colts might have won the game had Colts coach Shane Steichen featured Jonathan Taylor more often or had Richardson been able to hit the broad side of a barn.

Fortunately for the Packers, Taylor had only 12 rushing attempts and Richardson completed only 50.0 percent of his passes with three interceptions.

If Willis has to start again on Sunday at Tennessee, the Packers will face a much bigger challenge in trying to win the game on the ground. The Titans are 11th in the NFL with 4.02 yards allowed per carry compared to Indianapolis ranking 28th with 5.10 yards allowed per carry.

Next week, if he starts, Willis is going to have to make more than a couple plays to win the game.

LaFleur made no apologies after the game. Nor should he. The only thing that matters is winning the game, and his plan put the Packers in the position to do just that.

“I’m so proud of our staff, our players, just everybody sticking together, because you know adversity’s coming every week in this league,” LaFleur said. “And you face it in game, you face it going into the game when you don’t have your star quarterback, and you’ve just got to find a way to win because, at the end of the day, nobody cares.

“This game is about winning, and you’ve got to do it, however you’ve got to find a way, and our guys found a way today.”

Chances are, they’ll need to find a different way next week.

2. Same Old Run Defense

The most explosive player on the field was Taylor, who carried 12 times for 103 yards. He averaged 8.3 yards per carry, boosted by runs of 29, 18, 17 and 16 yards.

Why the Colts didn’t give him more opportunities in a game that really never was quite out of reach is one of life’s great mysteries. 

He carried seven times for 64 yards in the third quarter but didn’t get a single touch in the fourth quarter, despite not being injured. That includes a pivotal third-and-1 on the first snap of the final quarter, when Trey Sermon lost 4 on a quarterback option and the Colts missed a 50-yard field goal.

On Taylor’s 10 touches on first down, he gained 116 yards.

The Packers played a bunch of good run-defending snaps in last week’s loss to the Eagles but a few key runs by Saquon Barkley were the difference. Against the Colts, too often the defensive ends did not set an edge. Middle linebacker Quay Walker must play better.

And is there a way to change direction and get Walker on the field more with Eric Wilson and rookie Edgerrin Cooper? Wilson and Cooper play the same position; and the potential-packed Cooper played only seven.

After getting bludgeoned by Taylor, the Packers – who are last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry under LaFleur – are 27th with 5.07 yards allowed per carry to start this season.

3. Extreme Makeover: Safety Edition

A couple decades ago, ABC aired a show called Extreme Makeover. Hosted by Sam Saboura, it featured everyday people undergoing “extreme” physical makeovers including plastic surgery, weight loss and new hairstyles and wardrobes.

Conducted by general manager Brian Gutekunst, the Packers have had an extreme makeover at safety.

There are no words to adequately describe how successful that makeover has been. Perhaps the worst safety group in the NFL, and certainly the worst position group on the Packers, has become a resounding strength.

Talk about an extreme makeover: No safety who played even one defensive snap last year is on this roster. In their place are a key free-agent acquisition and three draft picks.

The veteran addition, Xavier McKinney, has two interceptions in as many games. Rookie second-round pick Javon Bullard has turned in a pair of excellent performances. Too good to keep off the field, rookie fourth-round pick Evan Williams played 20 snaps against the Colts. After recovering an onside kick, he intercepted a pass to clinch the win.

McKinney (two interceptions, two passes defensed), Bullard (one pass defensed) and Williams (one interception, one pass defensed) have combined for three interceptions and four passes defensed in two games. Last year’s primary starters, Darnell Savage and Jonathan Owens, had zero interceptions and four passes defensed combined the entire season.

They’ve also tackled well, too; McKinney has eight tackles and one miss and Bullard has 16 tackles and one miss.

“Obviously, I’ve got a lot more to do, a lot more to keep working on and being able to just help the guys wherever I can when I’m out there on the field,” McKinney said. “And just helping this team, that’s why I came here was to be a playmaker and to be a leader. And I’m going to keep doing that as much as I can every time I’m out there.”

More Green Bay Packers News

Defense delivers vs. Colts | Josh Jacobs brings the heat | Report card: Packers-Colts grades | Malik Willis plays role to perfection | Matt LaFleur earns career highlight | Stock report: Who’s up? Who’s Down? | Vomit, sweat and tears | Game story: Packers 16, Colts 10

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.