Packer Central

Three Overreactions From Packers’ Victory Over Rams

The Green Bay Packers held off the Los Angeles Rams 24-19 on Sunday thanks to Xavier McKinney and Tucker Kraft (and no thanks to Rashan Gary).

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (29) intercepts a pass by Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (29) intercepts a pass by Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford on Sunday. / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – There used to be three certainties in life. Now there are four.

Death.

Taxes.

Xavier McKinney interceptions.

Matt LaFleur leading the Green Bay Packers to a victory over Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams.

With McKinney delivering his best game of a magnificent season, Tucker Kraft scoring two touchdowns and Evan Williams delivering what might have been a game-saving pass breakup, the Packers beat the Rams 24-19 on Sunday. LaFleur has beaten McVay each of the past five seasons.

Here are the weekly overreactions.

1. Xavier McKinney for NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Before NFL free agency, I ranked the top 60 available players. On a list weighted toward positions of need, I put Xavier McKinney No. 1 overall.

Because of his combination of youth, playmaking production and superior tackling, the Packers handed him a four-year contract worth $67 million.

Given his early-season dominance, he’d be a bargain at twice the price.

Following the Packers’ go-ahead touchdown, which was set up by McKinney’s fumble recovery, the Rams had driven into Green Bay territory. On third down, Matthew Stafford tried to thread the needle to Tutu Atwell. With instincts and athleticism, McKinney won the race for the ball for his fifth interception in as many games with the Packers.

Green Bay turned that into another touchdown to lead 24-13.

“I saw his eyes,” McKinney said. “I was able to get a really good break on it. Yeah, he looked me off a couple times throughout the game. It was difficult. It was probably the most looked-off I’ve been this year. So, it was difficult, but I know if I trust it, my craft and my instincts, I was going to be able to get one.”

Including his two interceptions for the Giants in Week 18 last year, McKinney has intercepted a pass in six consecutive games. He’s the fourth player since 1990 to achieve that feat.

Here are the NFL’s team interception rankings

1. Vikings 11.

2. Packers, 9.

3. Bears, Steelers and Saints 6.

4, McKinney, Bills and Broncos, 5.

McKinney’s five interceptions, obviously, lead the NFL. Nobody has four and the Lions’ Kerby Joseph is the only player with three.

Entering Week 5, the Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson was the betting favorite to win the award, followed by the Steelers’ T.J. Watt and the 49ers’ Nick Bosa. McKinney had the ninth-shortest odds.

However, nobody is doing what McKinney is doing. Sacks are great but takeaways win games.

They certainly won Sunday’s game.

“That’s everything,” LaFleur said. “The ball is everything. We talk about it each and every week, and every week there’s great examples around the league. If you win the ball, you’ve got a great chance of winning the game.”

It’s not just McKinney’s interceptions. He was all-around brilliant against the Rams. On the opening series, he delivered a hard, clean shot on Atwell to prevent a third-and-3 conversion. He recovered a fumble. He had a season-low three tackles but has been as advertised with only two misses in five games, by our count.

The beauty of McKinney’s performance is that he’s not chasing interceptions and he really hasn’t allowed any substantive plays.

“Being out there with him,” Williams said, “it’s just like watching greatness.”

With the additions of McKinney, Javon Bullard and Williams, general manager Brian Gutekunst should be up for NFL Executive of the Year based on his work at safety alone.

2. Tucker Kraft Is Top-Five Tight End

Last year, Packers tight end Tucker Kraft led all tight ends in yards after the catch per catch. Not all rookie tight ends. All tight ends, period.

Drafted out of FCS powerhouse South Dakota State, it was fair to wonder how Kraft’s game would adapt to the NFL.

No, actually, it wasn’t fair to wonder that.

“Everyone was wrong,” Kraft told Packers On SI during OTAs. “Anyone who tries to shove that small-school narrative, they can put it where the sun don’t shine.”

Kraft turned the McKinney takeaways into touchdowns. First, there was a 66-yarder that included about 50 yards after the catch. He stiff-armed one defender around the 30 and ran through another player’s diving tackle attempt at the 17. Next, there was his 7-yard touchdown in which he ran through two defenders.

“The standard I play with is I make the first guy miss, don’t let a DB tackle you unless he has a sideline. Those are my rules,” Kraft said last week after studying former Giants legend Mark Bavaro.

According to Stathead, among all non-running backs with at least 15 catches, Kraft is No. 1 in the NFL with 11.3 yards after the catch per catch. Among tight ends, Detroit’s Sam LaPorta is a distant second with 8.1 YAC per catch.

“I think playing the tight end position is about consistency,” Kraft told reporters after the game. “If you can consistently win your one-on-one matchup, then the coaching staff can trust you more with larger roles. Really, just goes back to the rules I keep myself, the standard I set at the beginning of the season – don’t let a DB tackle me in space. Sometimes that still happens but always trying to make the first one miss.

“But head down, bull in a China shop. That’s just what I do.”

Sunday marked just the 13th start of Kraft’s career. He’s come so far, so fast that it’s fair to wonder just how good Kraft could be by the end of the season. With Travis Kelce slowing down, George Kittle probably is the gold standard at the position. As far as all-around players go, Kraft could be a top-five tight end already.

“Tucker is a dog, you know?” quarterback Jordan Love said. “Every time he touches the ball, he has that mindset that he’s trying to score. He’s not going to go down lightly. He’s going to run people over and stay up. He does really good things when he has the ball in his hands.

“I definitely keep trying to find ways to give him the ball. He’s a dog. He had a big-time performance today.”

3. Sound the Alarms

Where’s Rashan Gary?

It’s not an original question; Packers fans have been asking it for a few weeks.

Gary’s lack of production against the Eagles and Colts was understandable, given the elite athleticism of quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson and the game plan required to keep them in the pocket.

However, Gary wasn’t part of the feeding frenzy against the Titans’ Will Levis in Week 3, he didn’t get anywhere against the Vikings’ standout offensive tackles in Week 4 and he was nowhere to be seen against the Rams in Week 5.

The Rams’ offensive tackles are good but they’re not great. Matthew Stafford is a great quarterback with decidedly not-great athleticism.

By the official stats, Gary has one sack, one tackle for loss (the sack) and two quarterback hits this season. That production came against the Eagles, with the sack coming when the center snapped the ball too soon and Gary raced past unsuspecting right tackle Lane Johnson.

The last four games, Gary has zero sacks, zero tackles for losses and zero quarterback hits.

Including last year’s playoffs, Gary has one sack and two tackles for losses in his last 12 games.

According to Next Gen Stats, Gary, had three pressures against the Rams. His pressure rate of 9.4 percent was his second-lowest of the season.

It’s true that sacks tend to come in bunches. But pressures should be at least somewhat consistent. The last two games, there has been no “mush rush” needed to contend with Sam Darnold or Stafford. There have been opportunities to go get sackable quarterbacks, but he hasn’t delivered.

According to Next Gen, Gary’s season-long pressure rate is 10.5 percent – the lowest of his career and far below last year’s 17.1 percent, when he was coming off a torn ACL. He’s got 14 pressures in five games – that’s the most on the team, which is a whole other conversation. Detroit’s Hutchinson had 10 against Seattle.

It’s probably far too early to go down this road, but Gary in 2025 is due a $6.8 million base salary and $8.7 million roster bonus. Moving on would be almost break-even against the salary cap.

More Green Bay Packers News

Packers, Doubs “conversation” on Monday | Jayden Reed makes history | Packers’ report card vs. Rams | “Feast or famine” on offense | Stock report from 24-19 victory | Game story: Packers 24, Rams 19 | Live updates: Packers 24, Rams 19 | Highlights: Packers 24, Rams 19 | The big matchup | Packers-Rams three reasons to worry | Packers-Rams three reasons to believe | Packers suspend Romeo Doubs | Packers-Rams: Five keys 

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.