Three Reasons Why Packers Could Lose to Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are only 2-5 but they’ve got the talent necessary to beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

The Green Bay Packers' shoddy run defense, which struggled against Joe Mixon, will be challenged by the Jaguars' Tank Bigsby on Sunday in Jacksonville. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 5-2. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-5.

Big advantage for Green Bay, right?

Not so fast. With an NFC North showdown against the powerhouse Detroit Lions looming, the Packers had better be on alert on Sunday.

The Jaguars have won two of their last three games, and three of their losses have come by five points or less. The Jaguars are no joke, and if the Packers are looking past them, the Jaguars will get the last laugh.

Here are three reasons why the Packers could be upset on Sunday.

Jaguars’ Run Game and Run Defense

On both sides of the ball, Jacksonville has the edge in the ground game.

Offensively, the Jaguars are fourth in the NFL with 5.12 yards per rushing attempt. They haven’t missed Travis Etienne one bit because Tank Bigsby has been exceptional. Among running backs, his 6.19 yards per carry trails only Baltimore’s Derrick Henry.

Bigsby is one of 42 running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, he is first with 4.58 yards after contact per carry. While he is 27th with 67 rushing attempts, he is fourth with 25 missed tackles. In the Jaguars’ two wins the past three weeks, he topped 100 rushing yards with two touchdowns in both games.

“I love the way he runs,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “His style of running, he's very, very, very physical. He's fast. He hits the hole, so we got to do a great job of not letting him get going. You’ve got to have multiple hats at the ball.

“Since he's gone in there, he's been really productive, obviously. You don't average 6 yards a carry by not doing anything. I mean, he's physical, he makes people miss, he's got multiple just clips on tape that are pretty impressive.”

The Packers are a solid ninth with 4.34 yards allowed per carry. The Texans’ Joe Mixon had 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week, but Green Bay kept him under wraps during the second half.

“It’s all stuff that we can get corrected, honestly,” Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “I think some guys made a lot of plays in the run game but not happy about the yardage and how much he averaged, for sure. We’ve definitely got to get that cleaned up. We have a better plan for it this week.”

Stopping the run is important for obvious reasons. Beyond that, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is much better on play-action passes than standard dropbacks. On play-action passes, he’s completed 69.6 percent of his passes and averaged 10.3 yards per attempt. On regular passes, it’s 59.4 percent and 6.1 yards per attempt.

Defensively, the Jaguars have been strong, as well, ranking seventh with 4.15 yards allowed per carry. It will be a strength-vs.-strength matchup with the Jaguars, bolstered by the return of stud linebacker Foye Oluokun, squaring off against the Josh Jacobs-led Packers run game, which is sixth with 4.98 yards per carry.

Jacksonville’s only real chance on defense is to stop Jacobs and get the Packers into second- and third-and-long, because its pass defense has been dissected all season.

Along those lines, first-and-10 will be critical because it will set the stage for everything else.

On first-and-10, Jacksonville’s offense is averaging 5.14 yards per running play while its defense is allowing just 3.11 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Green Bay has run the ball a league-high 113 times on first-and-10 and been rewarded with 4.65 yards per carry. The defense, however, has allowed 5.02 yards per carry.

Can Anyone Stop Brian Thomas?

In this year’s draft, the Cardinals drafted Marvin Harrison, the Giants drafted Malik Nabers and the Bears drafted Rome Odunze in the top 10. The Jaguars selected Brian Thomas at No. 23.

Thomas has been superb. Among the rookie class, he is second with 30 receptions (Nabers has 39), first with 513 yards (Nabers has 427), second with 17.1 yards per catch (the Bills’ Keon Coleman averages 20.4), first with 2.60 yards per route (Nabers averages 2.25) and second with three touchdowns (Nabers has four), according to PFF.

At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, he is a big-time deep threat. On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, he’s caught 6-of-11 for 283 yards and two touchdowns, according to PFF. No other rookie has more than three deep receptions, and he has more yards on deep passes than Harrison, Nabers and Odunze combined.

He caught a 58-yard bomb last week against New England despite excellent coverage by Patriots standout Christian Gonzalez.

“I’ve always said that there’s no defense for the perfect ball, and especially when a guy can make unbelievable catches, which he certainly is capable of,” LaFleur said. “I’ve been super-impressed. Every week (he’s) on the big-play reel making these explosive gains.

“I think for a rookie to come in and show the type of production that he’s had and the explosiveness. I mean, we loved him coming out of the draft, so I’ve been really impressed with his play.”

There’s no doubt Lawrence will give him a couple shots, regardless of if he’s matched on Jaire Alexander or Keisean Nixon – or if ballhawking safety Xavier McKinney is in the vicinity.

“Rookie, 10th-year player, doesn’t matter. If our guy can make plays down the field, we’ll give him opportunities,” Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor told reporters this week. “I don’t know what Christian Gonzalez is being told in the meeting room in terms of, ‘You could have done this differently.’ That was probably as good a coverage as you could get.

“It was a heck of an effort to finish the catch and come up with the ball at the end of it. That gives you confidence. The more that guys produce in those situations, the more you want to put him in those situations. That’s certainly something we think he can do.”

Special Teams

Green Bay’s special teams were either really good or really bad in last week’s win over Houston. It will have to play much better in every phase against the Jaguars.

With former All-Pro returner Devin Duvernay on injured reserve, Jaguars receiver Parker Washington had a 96-yard punt-return touchdown in last week’s victory over New England. Along with a 73-yard kickoff return in the preseason, the Packers’ coverage units will need to be on their game.

“He’s got tremendous speed,” Packers special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said. “When you have a big return like that, it certainly builds a sense of confidence, not only in yourself but in your blockers, in the scheme, to keep doing that.

“So, it’s a challenge for us. Certainly, a challenge for Daniel (Whelan), where he puts the ball, how he handles the rush according to what he’s going to do with the placement of the ball and the coverage. It’s a big challenge. They’ve got a good return game.”

Jaguars kicker Cam Little is 11-of-12 on field goals and punter Logan Cooke is second in net average (44.9) with 12 inside-the-20 punts and zero touchbacks.

Whelan had an incredible game last week and Brandon McManus, who kicked for the Jaguars last year, made the game-winning kick in his Packers debut.

Little has allowed only four kickoff returns so probably will neutralize Nixon.

As should always be the goal on special teams, just don’t lose the game. The Packers came far too close to losing the game last week.

More Green Bay Packers News 

The #Packers have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. The #Jaguars' pass defense is terrible.

That is part of this week's Three Reasons Why the Packers Will Win story. ⬇️https://t.co/krO7ATBWwm

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 26, 2024

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