Packer Central

Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat 49ers

Injuries will be an obvious factor but they’re not the only reasons why the Green Bay Packers should beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

Bill Huber

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) will not play on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers.
San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) will not play on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers can take a huge step in their march toward the NFL playoffs when they host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Here are three reasons why that march will continue with a victory over the 49ers.

1. Brock Purdy Out; Brandon Allen In

Football is a complicated game, with 11 players on offense facing 11 players on defense. The success of every play depends on the success of every player.

Sometimes, though, it’s pretty simple. The quarterback matchup will be Jordan Love vs. Brandon Allen.

With 49ers star Brock Purdy out with his injured right shoulder, coach Kyle Shanahan has made a call to the bullpen and summoned Allen, who …

- Has made nine NFL starts, with none since 2021.

- Has won two of those starts, with none since 2020.

- Has thrown 10 touchdown passes vs six interceptions.

Allen isn’t a total stiff. With the Bengals in 2020, he threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns with a 126.5 passer rating in a 37-31 victory at the Houston Texans. However, he has led his team to 17 points or less in six of the nine starts.

Purdy is a superb quarterback. Yesh, he’s got physical limitations but there’s no arguing with the numbers and success.

Among quarterbacks in NFL history with at least 900 career passing attempts, Purdy ranks No. 1 with a 106.3 passer rating (Aaron Rodgers, 102.9), No. 1 with a 67.8 percent completion rate (a miniscule amount ahead of Joe Burrow’s 67.8 percent) and No. 1 with 8.986 yards per attempt (Otto Graham, 8.981).

“I think Brandon's a really good thrower, runs our offense well,” Shanahan told reporters before the team left for Appleton on Friday. “He's done a really good job since he's been here. He's been here two years now and guys believe in him, and he'll give us a good chance to win.”

Shanahan expected Purdy to start, so this will be a Purdy game plan. That will help Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Allen is not a big-time runner, either, so it’s not as if they will be getting a stylistic change-up.

Purdy this season has completed 66.0 percent of his passes and is averaging 5.2 yards per rush. Allen for his career has completed 56.6 percent of his passes with 1.9 yards per carry.

“I think he’s playing at a really high level – and I mean (a) really high level,” Hafley said of Purdy. “We’ve played really good quarterbacks this year, it seems like every week. He’s impressive.

“He gets the ball out on time. He sits in the pocket. He goes through his reads. He doesn’t force too many bad throws. But then the thing you notice, especially when you start to watch the third down, is he’s scrambled for the (fifth)-most third down first downs out of any quarterback in the NFL.”

The 49ers will miss Purdy’s accuracy and scrambling ability. The Packers will welcome his absence, especially after being unable to handle the running skills of the Bears’ Caleb Williams last week.

2. Packers’ Overwhelming Superiority

The 49ers will line up without their …

- Best defensive end, Nick Bosa. The 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year ranks second among edge defenders in pressures this season. He has more pressures than all of Green Bay’s defensive ends combined.

- Best defensive tackle, Javon Hargrave, who had 11 sacks for the Eagles in 2022 and seven sacks for the 49ers last year, when he was a second-time Pro Bowler.

- Second-best linebacker, Dre Greenlaw, who is the second-best linebacker only because their best linebacker is All-Pro Fred Warner. He had two interceptions in last year’s playoff victory against Green Bay.

- Best cornerback, Charvarius Ward, is out after a family tragedy. He was a second-team All-Pro last year with an NFL-best 23 passes defensed.

- Best safety, Talanoa Hufanga, who was a hero of the Niners’ playoff win at Lambeau in 2021. He was a first-team All-Pro in 2022, when he had four interceptions, two forced fumbles and 97 tackles.

Coaches can talk until they’re blue in the face about the “next man up” but what team has that many competent next men up, especially considering the star power that has to be replaced?

That’s especially true with Bosa.

He had five quarterback hits in the 49ers’ playoff win against Green Bay last year and 12 in last year’s postseason – four more than any other defender.

“There’s some plays that you certainly would not want to do with him in the game,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He’s that type of player. He’s a game-wrecker, and he can definitely impact the game.”

3. Special Teams and Situations

Green Bay’s special teams are coming off a big game at Chicago. Karl Brooks’ blocked field goal won the game, punter Daniel Whelan pinned the Bears at the 5 and Jayden Reed’s 16-yard punt return kick-started the game-winning drive.

On a chilly afternoon, there could be opportunities for Packers All-Pro returner Keisean Nixon. The 49ers are 27th in kickoff coverage (29.9 yards per return) and 31st in punt coverage (17.8). Former Packers punter Pat O’Donnell has replaced injured Mitch Wishnowsky, who had a punt blocked against Minnesota.

Here’s another potential edge for Green Bay.

San Francisco’s defense ranks 25th on third down (43.4 percent conversions) and 23rd in the red zone (62.5 percent touchdowns).

Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been any good in either area, ranking 22nd on third down (36.6 percent) and 27th in the red zone (48.7 percent). Last week, the Packers converted just one third down and had a turnover and turnover on downs in the Bears’ red zone.

“That was one of the weirdest games,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “It was just strange. “We had the ball for six real possessions, and we had one punt and the rest of them we were in the red zone.

“We did a great job moving the ball. It’s one of those things, you can see how explosive we are, you can see how productive we can be, but we’ve really got to focus on finishing, whether it’s the third downs or in the red zone, finishing with touchdowns or field goals, at least. We’ve just got to be better in those situations, for sure.”

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.