Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Bears

The Green Bay Packers have dominated the Chicago Bears under coach Matt LaFleur. Here’s why the Packers will return from Chicago with another victory.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs will face a weak Chicago Bears run defense on Sunday. / Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have dominated the Chicago Bears for about three decades. Brett Favre dominated the Bears. Aaron Rodgers dominated the Bears. Jordan Love dominated the Bears last year.

The Packers have won 10 in a row in the series. Here are three reasons why they will extend that streak to 11.

Bad News Bears Offense

Chicago’s offense has been terrible. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron wasn’t fired for scoring too many touchdowns, obviously.

During the Bears’ three-game losing streak, they are:

- Last in scoring (9.0 points per game; no other team less than 16.0).

- Last in yards per play (3.7; no other team less than 4.0).

- Last in sack percentage (15.2).

- Last on third down (15.0 percent; no other team less than 25.0 percent).

- Second-to-last in yards per completion (7.3; Dallas, 7.2).

When the Bears won three consecutive games, quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, was second in the league during that span with a 122.8 passer rating.

During their three-game losing streak that followed their bye, Williams was last in passer rating (64.7), completion percentage (50.5) and yards per attempt (4.9). While he hasn’t thrown any interceptions, he also hasn’t thrown any touchdowns.

“It’s tough not scoring as much as you feel you should or moving the ball as well as you should,” Williams told reporters in Chicago this week.

“I think that’s where the frustrations come from – us having such great defense, special teams and overall players. Even on the offensive side, having such special guys on this side of the ball and not being able to talk the ball down the field and score.”

Maybe the new offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, will be just what the doctor ordered. But he had been the passing-game coordinator, so it’s not as if he had no fingerprints on the debacle.

Remarkably, Williams said he and Brown “haven’t really talked much throughout this time.” That’s kind of a damning statement about the rookie quarterback and the coach in charge of the passing game.

“I think at this point when it comes to where we are in the season, you can't reinvent the wheel,” Brown said. “I'm not going to try to do that at all. That would kind of set us in a spiral going backwards, in my opinion.

“It's about being able to try to find the best ways to be effective with our playmakers, to be able to marry what we do from a formation and motion standpoint. Everything to me starts up front, starts with the run game, how we attack, knock it forward mentality. We build off of that.”

Bears Barely Play Run Defense

Chicago’s defense, on the other hand, is strong. The Monsters of the Midway are seventh in points allowed and second in opponent passer rating. They’ve allowed more than 21 points in only one game.

Where the monsters are paper tigers is their run defense. They are 28th with 4.85 yards allowed per carry. During the three-game losing streak, they are last with 5.2 yards allowed per carry.

The run game has been the consistent strength of Green Bay’s offense. Josh Jacobs is fourth in the NFL with 762 rushing yards. His 4.82 yards per carry ranks 13th among running backs. Of 50 backs with 50-plus carries, he is fifth with 3.73 yards after contact per attempt.

“Just the change of direction and the quickness. Very shifty,” Bears defensive coordinator Eric Washington said. “The burst is there. The confidence is there. Now we're seeing the All-Pro, Pro Bowl-caliber player that we've seen from him previously. The confidence is there. He's very quick hitting the holes downhill [and being] physical. He's not looking to avoid anyone.”

Jacobs is on pace for 1,439 rushing yards, which would be the third-best total in Packers history. His 84.7 rushing yards per game would rank 10th on the franchise list. Ahman Green and the Hall of Famer Jim Taylor are the only Packers players to reach 90 rushing yards per game.

As good as the run game has been, Jacobs sees room for improvement.

“We’ve been pretty good as a unit, and it’s crazy because we could be so much better,” Jacobs said. “So, I think that’s the fun part about the back end of the season is trying to chase the perfection, trying to chase being great as a unit and trying to come in each day and lock in.”

An effective run game, of course, sets up the play-action passing game. Jordan Love’s passer rating on play-action is about 20 points higher than on standard dropbacks, according to PFF.

Benefit of the Bye

No, the Packers have not been good after their bye week.

Under LaFleur, the Packers are 2-3 immediately after their bye in the regular season; including playoffs, they are 4-4. Last year, they lost 19-17 at the Broncos.

This year, teams coming off their bye are 7-5. Teams who returned with a road game, as will be the case for Green Bay, are 5-3.

During the LaFleur era, teams are 94-79-1 – so not a huge advantage.

However, the week off could be particularly useful for Green Bay.

Quarterback Jordan Love, who wrestled with knee and groin injuries throughout the first half of the season, was full participation at practice this week.

The time away should have given coach Matt LaFleur plenty of time to solve the offense’s issues on third down and in the red zone, and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley the ability to address a meager pass rush.

One change: more competitive periods at practice, which was the approach that worked for the team last year.

“We’re fresh off the bye,” LaFleur said. “I think, naturally, the bye week gives all of us a chance to recharge, re-energize. I think it’s about maximizing each day and coming in with the right mentality, the right attitude. I love the character of our locker room, I love the character of our coaches, and I think we’re all working together to try to keep pushing and get better.

“I think football is a unique sport in the fact that you have to play football in order to get better at football. Things happen so fast out there that it’s tough to – even in practice, I think it’s tough to replicate the game speed that you’re going to encounter on a Sunday. So, I think the more you can do some of the 1s vs. 1s, guys that are pretty confident in what they’re doing and there’s not a lot of hesitation, it kind of just naturally brings up the speed of practice.”

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