Packer Central

Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Bears Today

The Green Bay Packers are 11-5, the Chicago Bears have lost 10 in a row overall and the Packers have an 11-game winning streak in the series. Here are three reasons why the domination will continue.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears.
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears. / David Banks-Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears. So does Matt LaFleur.

The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears will wrap up the regular season on Sunday at Lambeau Field. For the Packers, they hope to use this game as a springboard into the postseason. For the Bears, they’ll either be hoping to play the role of spoiler or simply trying to survive for 3 hours before going on vacation.

Here are three reasons why the Packers, as usual, will beat the Bears.

1. Defensive Feeding Frenzy

What do you get when you take a leaky offensive line and combine it with an indecisive, overconfident and inexperienced quarterback?

You get Caleb Williams getting sacked 67 times.

Sacks became an official stat in 1982 but Pro Football Reference has unofficial sack totals going back to 1970. Over those 50-plus seasons, only David Carr (76 with the expansion Houston Texans in 2002), Randall Cunningham (72 with the Philadelphia Eagles in 1986) and Carr (68 with the Texans in 2005) have been sacked more often.

There’s a decent chance Williams will pry himself off the Lambeau Field turf five times, making him the second-most-sacked quarterback in more than a half-century.

Green Bay’s pass rush has run hotter than hot chocolate and colder than the Frozen Tundra. Right when you thought the Packers were broiling with 10 sacks in wins against Seattle and New Orleans, they had just one and barely threatened the Vikings’ Sam Darnold last week.

With the Vikings, at least the Packers had to be worried about Aaron Jones. There are no such worries about a rather ineffective Bears running game.

There’s no reason why the Packers’ red-hot run defense can’t force the Bears into third-and-long situations and tee off on Williams.

Pro Football Focus has charged Chicago’s line with 36 sacks. That’s the most in the league, but that also means there’s a lot of other sacks in which the blame can be laid at the feet of players other than the linemen. PFF has charged Williams with 17 sacks, most in the league.

Of 32 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks, Williams’ time-to-throw of 3.03 seconds is the fourth-longest. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Vikings’ Darnold have the longest times-to-throw.

However, Williams’ play-extending style hasn’t paid a lot of dividends; he’s 20th in yards per attempt when in the pocket for 2.5-plus seconds.

“He can extend plays with his legs,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “I think the receivers do a good job of converting routes and just moving around. It’s tough. We’ve got to be prepared for it. I think that’s something we prepare for in practice and got to get ready for mentally, knowing that sometimes the downs might be longer.”

2. Josh Jacobs (And Others) vs. Weak Defense

Josh Jacobs has powered Green Bay’s all season.

That might not be the case on Sunday as the Packers will want their Pro Bowl running back at his best for the playoffs.

“Realistically, I don’t see them doing that, really,” Jacobs said of getting 30 rushes vs. Chicago. “Just being honest, being realistic, I don’t see me taking that many carries in this game. Obviously, I want to play. I’m going to push to play and I’m playing. But I don’t see myself taking 30 carries. I just don’t see that.”

It might not matter.

Jacobs is having a phenomenal season. He is fifth in the NFL with 1,285 rushing yards, with a third-ranked 1,004 yards coming after contact. Of 42 running backs with at least 100 carries, he’s 10th with 3.40 yards per carry after contact. That makes up the bulk of his 4.36-yard average.

The No. 2 back, Emanuel Wilson, has carried the ball 89 times and is averaging 4.82 yards per carry. His missed-tackle rate of 27.0 percent is better than Jacobs’ 22.4 percent.

The No. 3 back, Chris Brooks, is averaging 4.43 yards on his 28 carries. His 3.50 yards after contact per carry is better than Jacobs’ mark.

Meanwhile, Chicago is 26th with 4.72 rushing yards allowed per game. The Bears have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in 10 consecutive games.

“What we put on tape, regardless of wins and losses, you can’t say we don’t play hard and don’t fight to the end,” Jacobs said. “That’s something I wanted to bring in, that certain type of mentality. To be able to get the ball and set the tone in a lot of these games, it’s something I don’t take lightly and something I feel like has been definitely key for us.”

3. It’s the Packers and Bears

Sometimes, the great, in-depth analysis isn’t necessary.

The Packers are 11-5 and headed to the playoffs for the fifth time in the last six years. The Bears are 4-12 and headed into the offseason with a fourth consecutive season of 10-plus losses.

The Packers are 11-0 against teams not from Detroit, Minnesota and Philadelphia. The Bears have lost 10 in a row.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 11-0 against the Bears. Interim Bears coach Thomas Brown is 0-4; the team has scored 45 points in his four games on the job.

Those are all reasons why the Packers are 10.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook with an 87.4 percent win probability.

The Packers, looking to build momentum into the playoffs, are by far the better team.

The Bears, as the Happy Schnapps Combo famously sang, still suck.

LaFleur is leaving nothing to chance. He doesn’t want to go to the playoffs on a two-game losing streak.

“I think you can throw all the records out the window when you’re talking about the Packers versus the Bears,” he said. 

“I think this is a great rivalry in the National Football League, one of the best in sports, so I think it will be an exciting environment. Certainly for us, it’s our last opportunity in Lambeau, more than likely, for this season. And so I expect us to go out there and play our best.”

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.