Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Cardinals

With both teams coming off big road victories last week, here are three reasons why the Green Bay Packers will beat the Arizona Cardinals in their return to Lambeau Field on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) sprints to the end zone past Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse. / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Given the power of the NFC North and the logjam in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers can leave nothing to chance on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.

“We’ve got to play our best game, our most complete game this weekend,” coach Matt LaFleur said of the Cardinals, who are coming off a come-from-behind victory over the powerhouse 49ers last week.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Cardinals.

1. Packers Will Run Over Cardinals

Green Bay’s offense is at its best when the run game is going and setting up play-action passing opportunities.

There should be ample opportunities against the Cardinals, who enter the game ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (147.8) and 20th in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.65).

After a promising start, they allowed 187 rushing yards and a 4.3 average against Detroit, 216 rushing yards and a 5.8 average against Washington and 153 rushing yards and a 5.9 average against San Francisco.

Added together, they’ve allowed 5.2 yards per carry the last three games, fifth-worst in the league.

Enter the Packers, who rank among the NFL’s best in rushing offense (164.8 per game), rushing average (5.2 per carry) and explosive runs (25 of 10-plus yards).

While some of that is skewed by the run-heavy attacks during Jordan Love’s two-game absence, the Packers are fourth with 3.70 yards after contact per carry, according to Next Gen Stats. Josh Jacobs is third in the NFL with 330 rushing yards after contact.

All week, the focal point for the Packers has been Cardinals safety Budda Baker. Baker is third in the NFL with 52 tackles and has been a Pro Bowler each of the last five years.

“Obviously, when you talk about their defense, you start with Budda Baker,” Jacobs said. “He’s all around the ball on every clip. He negates a lot of big plays for other offenses. I think that locating him and knowing where he is at all times is the biggest thing.”

2. Cardinals Can’t Rush Jordan Love

There’s more to rushing the quarterback than sacks. Defensive coordinators like to say that when their pass rush isn’t good.

That said, the Cardinals are 16th in sack percentage (7.97 percent) but 31st in pressure percentage (25.3 percent, according to Next Gen Stats).

That lack of pressure should work in Green Bay’s favor. According to Pro Football Focus, 32 quarterbacks have faced at least 24 under-pressure dropbacks. From that group, Love is 29th in under-pressure completion percentage (37.1) and 27th in passer rating (47.6).

Compare that to a clean pocket, where Love’s completion percentage is 64.6 and his passer rating is 102.9.

The Cardinals’ weakness is their cornerbacks. Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas are the starting corners and Garrett Williams is the nickel.

Last week, Thomas and Max Melton split reps. Perhaps Melton – this year’s second-round pick and the brother of Packers receiver Bo Melton – will make his first NFL start.

Combined, Murphy-Bunting, Thomas and Williams have one interception (by Williams) and four passes defensed. Murphy-Bunting and Starling have allowed 100-plus passer ratings.

While the Cardinals beat the 49ers last week, receiver Brandon Aiyuk caught eight passes for 147 yards and tight end George Kittle caught eight passes for 64 yards. Coming off big games against the Rams, there should be opportunities for the Packers’ big passing-game weapons, receiver Jayden Reed and tight end Tucker Kraft.

“Overall the defense is sound,” LaFleur said. “They do a good job of disguising a lot of different things. And every game’s going to be a little bit different, but they’ve got playmakers back there and it started with Budda. I think Budda’s one of the best in the game and I think it’s going to be a challenge.”

Combined, Green Bay’s running game and explosive passing attack will stress the Cardinals, who are 27th in points allowed.

“They throw the ball over people’s heads and they’ve got explosive players,” Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon said. “The run game’s good. Jacobs is a really good player.

“The scheme is really good, but what jumps out on the tape to me is (that) they can throw it over your head, so we’ve got to be on the details of that. They’re one of the top teams in the league in explosive plays and that’s how they score points, so got to do a good job with that.”

3. Cardinals’ O-Line Injuries

The right side of Arizona’s offensive line should have been a powerhouse with veteran guard Will Hernandez joined by free-agent tackle Jonah Williams.

Instead, both players are on injured reserve. Williams has been out all season and Hernandez suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. The backup right tackle, Kelvin Beachum, is battling a hamstring injury but was limited participation the last two days and probably will start on Sunday.

“It’s very tough, but it’s next-man-up mentality,” quarterback Kyler Murray said of his makeshift line. “I’m confident in anybody who steps in there and we just have to rally around those guys and make them feel comfortable (to) play their best ball.”

Standout running back James Conner does his best work up the middle, which you might expect from a 233-pound runner. According to Pro Football Focus, Conner is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on runs between center and right guard. That’s where losing the brawling Hernandez could impact the game.

“Will was playing really well,” Gannon said. “He’s playing really good ball for us. He’s an integral part to our toughness and our attitude and doing things the right way, practicing the right way, playing the right way.”

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