Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Jaguars

The Green Bay Packers, who have won three consecutive games, will play at the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win again.

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars have any answers for the Green Bay Packers' explosive passing attack? / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, who were considered preseason Super Bowl contenders, appear to have found their groove.

They haven’t been dominant, but the Packers (5-2) have won three consecutive games entering Sunday’s game at the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).

The Jaguars are playing better, too, with two wins in their last three games, but here are three reasons why the Packers will win again heading into next week’s showdown against the Detroit Lions.

Big-Play Offense Against Big-Play Defense

Big plays win games, and this is where the Packers have a, well, big advantage.

The Packers are third in the NFL in explosive plays, defined as an 18-yard pass or a 12-yard run. The Packers are tied for seventh in explosive passes with 33 and tied for second in explosive runs with 26.

In terms of 20-yard plays, Green Bay’s offense is second with 33. Broken down, it’s second with 25 passes and sixth with eight runs.

Jacksonville’s defense is second-to-last with 33 20-yard plays allowed, with 30 of those coming through the air. It’s also allowed a league-worst six 20-yard touchdowns. A lot of that damage was done with top cornerback Tyson Campbell out of the lineup; he returned to action last week and almost intercepted a pass in the 32-16 win over New England.

Even with Campbell, though, rookie quarterback Drake Maye threw for 276 yards with a 109.7 passer rating.

There should be ample opportunities for Love, especially with Green Bay’s balanced attack.

“He’s a really good football player,” Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said of Love. “He’s handling the position, the offense. He’s in command of everything. He knows where to go with the football. Matt’s done a great job with offense, scheme and putting them in the position (to make plays).

“The guy can make every throw. The offense is just built, obviously, the time that he’s been starting now from early in his career to now. You’re seeing the progression of that. Then with his legs, he can get out of trouble. You saw him in the Philly game, he escapes the pocket and he throws the deep ball. The ability to move and throw on the run, it makes him an elite player at the position. It’s going to be a good challenge, for sure.”

One under-the-radar advantage for the Packers. Love ranks seventh in yards after the catch per completion while the Jaguars are 31st in YAC allowed.

Jordan Love vs. One-Pick Jaguars

If there’s one problem for the Packers, it’s been Love’s big blunders. Even while missing two games with a knee injury, Love has thrown a league-worst eight interceptions.

There seems to be an understanding that Love’s aggressive style comes with an acceptable level of risk. Still, he needs to be better. Both interceptions last week against Houston were avoidable, and there was an ill-advised bomb to the end zone during the game-winning drive that fortunately fell incomplete.

Enter the Jaguars, who have intercepted one pass this season.

“I think obviously the interceptions are something I want to clean up and definitely improve on, being able to be clean with the ball,” Love said this week. “I think the big focus for us is to go a game on offense and have 100 percent ball security. That’s definitely a big takeaway.

“There’s always different reasons for interceptions, whether it’s a bad read, a poorly thrown ball, things like that. There’s so many different ways things happen. For me, definitely something I want to focus on moving forward.”

The Jaguars’ only interception belongs to safety Andrew Wingard, who could return from injured reserve this week.

It’s little wonder why the Jaguars are 2-5. They’ve allowed a league-high 16 touchdown passes and have a league-low one interception. They are last in opponent passer rating and 28th in yards per attempt. They’re also 26th in pressure percentage, with pressures giving the defense its best chance for an interception.

The aforementioned Campbell had one interception in 11 games last season but three picks and 15 pass breakups in 2022. Former Packers safety Darnell Savage had a pick-six in the playoffs last year but hasn’t had a regular-season interception since 2022.

“They definitely have a lot of good weapons over there, which a lot of good teams in this league do,” Savage told reporters this week. “But, at the end of the day, there's one football. So, you’ve just got to do your job each and every play and just be ready, and think the ball’s coming to you every play, no matter what. As long as we keep holding that mindset and just make the plays when they come to us, we’ll be all right.”

Situational Success

Yards are great, but it’s all empty calories if you can’t move the chains on third down or get into the end zone on first-and-goal.

The Jaguars have been terrible in all facets of what coaches call situational football.

Jacksonville’s offense is 24th on third down (34.2 percent conversions) and 26th on fourth down (46.7 percent). Meanwhile, its defense is 26th on third down (45.1 percent) and 29th on fourth down (70.0 percent).

Settling for field goals is a sure way to lose games. The Jaguars are 24th in the red zone (50.0 percent touchdowns) and 27th in goal-to-go (60.0 percent). Giving up touchdowns is also a sure way to lose games. Defensively, the Jaguars are last in the red zone (78.3 percent touchdowns) and in goal-to-go (100.0 percent touchdowns).

The Packers are mediocre in all of those categories. On offense, they are 12th on third down and 17th on fourth down, and 18th in the red zone and 19th in goal-to-go. On defense, they are 15th on third down and 10th on fourth down, and 19th in the red zone and 25th in goal-to-go.

However, they’ve been better in the red zone during their three-game winning streak (tied for ninth on offense, tied for eighth on defense).

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