Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Seahawks

Can the Green Bay Packers bounce back by beating the red-hot Seattle Seahawks at deafening Lumen Field? Yes, and here are three reasons why.

Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark pressures former Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in 2021. / Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis / USA TODAY NETWORK

GREEN BAY, Wis. – One thing’s for sure: The Green Bay Packers will be battle-tested when they reach the playoffs.

Two weeks ago, they routed the Miami Dolphins, who had won three consecutive games. Last week, they were edged at the buzzer by the Detroit Lions, who had won 10 in a row. On Sunday night, they will play at the Seattle Seahawks, who have won four in a row to take the NFC West lead.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Seahawks.

1. Josh Jacobs

First-year Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald arrived in Seattle with a strong defensive track record. That defense hit its stride during the team’s four-game winning streak.

Where the Seahawks are vulnerable – and where the Packers can and should take advantage – is on the ground.

Seattle is 21st with 126.5 rushing yards allowed per game, 25th with 4.71 yards per carry and 28th in third-down run defense with a 59.1 percent conversion rate.

The Seahawks have given up at least 120 rushing yards in seven of 13 games, including last week against Arizona. The Packers have hit 120 rushing yards in eight games this season, going 6-2 in those games.

“They rely a lot on their guys that they have up front,” Jacobs said. “You know, their DBs are not really afraid to come up and hit. So, I think that’s a testament to how they’re coached and how they’re being trained over there. They’re very ball aware that I’ve noticed just on film. So, for me, just trying to run with the same determination that I’ve been running with. Try to come out there and just put my stamp on the game.”

Jacobs sets the temperature on offense. Green Bay entered this week’s game ranked fourth with 105 explosive plays (16-yard pass, 12-yard run) and tied for third with 59 plays of 20-plus yards, including fourth with 47 passes of 20-plus yards.

Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde knows the starting point of preventing those big plays.

“The run game,” he told reporters this week. “Because they can put you in the looks they want. If they're moving the ball efficiently with running the ball, it puts them in a position to say, ‘OK, what are you going to do? You’re going to load the box?’ They've got these guys that can vertically stress you.”

The Packers have struggled to run the ball the last two weeks, with Jacobs managing merely 107 rushing yards on 37 attempts. Of 27 backs with at least 20 carries during that span, Jacobs is 26th in yards per carry (2.95), but he’s 17th in yards after contact per carry (2.73) and first in missed tackles (12).

So, Jacobs has done his part. It’s up to the line to give him some space.

How has that group responded?

“We’ll find out Sunday night,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think they had a good week of practice. Certainly, that’s a proud group in terms of they take a lot of pride in what they do and they go out there and work the right way.”

2. Defensive Line

Green Bay’s defensive line has been perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season.

Rashan Gary hasn’t hit his form. Kenny Clark was silent for most of the season. Lukas Van Ness hasn’t taken the expected Year 2 jump.

However, that group has played better of late.

Playing the run isn’t sexy but the Packers have been excellent their last three game, ranking third in the NFL with 3.0 yards allowed per carry despite facing a series of elite running backs (Miami’s De’Von Achane, San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey and Detroit’s David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs).

“I am really proud of the run defense,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “I do think it’s improved. I think the consistency of the guys playing in the scheme, the familiarity, they’re comfortable with it. I thought Kenny played a great game [against the Lions]. I thought (TJ) Slaton played a great game and some of those younger D-linemen. Obviously, R.G., but some of those younger guys are really starting to come on and you can just see.”

The aforementioned trio of players has come alive.

In the last five games, Gary has three games with one sack and one game with a half-sack. Clark had his first sack of the season against Miami, then was dominant against Detroit with eight tackles. Van Ness had sacks in back-to-back games against San Francisco and Miami.

Seattle’s offensive line is a weakness, though the team is 4-0 since right tackle Abraham Lucas returned from injury. The Seahawks are 24th in yards per carry and 21st in sack percentage. In last week’s win over Arizona, Seattle for the first time this season did not allow a sack, but that came on the heels of games of seven, four, five and three sacks allowed.

Clark suffered a toe injury during the Week 1 loss to the Eagles and is finally off the injury report. With improved health has come improved performance.

“I hurt my toe on that first tush push that we had against the Eagles,” Clark said. “Your toe, D-lineman, it’s tough.”

With Geno Smith operating a big-play passing attack and facing a depleted Packers secondary, the Packers must win in the trenches.

3. Taking Advantage of Turnovers

The Packers are third in the NFL with 24 takeaways. That’s nice, but what have they done with them?

Quite a bit. Green Bay is No. 1 in the NFL with 97 points off turnovers.

“I wish there was some secret formula,” coach Matt LaFleur said, “but I don’t think there is. I think a lot of times that we’ve gotten those takeaways, we’ve put our offense in a pretty good situation in regards to short fields, which is obviously much easier to convert.”

The Seahawks are aware of Green Bay’s prowess. Seattle has 19 giveaways, tied for eighth-most in the league.

“I just think every time when there's a sudden change as a defense, you have to bring your mind to that moment, because you don't know what the guys are doing on the sideline,” Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde told reporters in Seattle.

“A sudden change, the word is in what happened. You could be in your first or second play, you're doing some corrections, and suddenly, bang, you're on. In a sudden-change situation, it’s about how do you bring yourself to that moment? How do you bring your defense up, lock in, get ready to go out and stop them from scoring points?”

The Seahawks have had plenty of practice. Quarterback Geno Smith has thrown 12 interceptions, third-most, but none the past two weeks.

“He does a good job of looking off. That’s something I noticed that’s pretty big,” said Packers safety Xavier McKinney, who will be looking to add to his NFL-high seven interceptions. “I think he has some turnovers this year but he’s a really good quarterback.

“He knows how to improvise plays. He knows how to win. I think that’s the best attribute when you have a quarterback is getting a quarterback that can will your team to a win, no matter if it’s a pretty one or an ugly one.”

This year, Seattle is 4-1 when Smith doesn’t throw an interception and 3-0 when he’s hit a 100 passer rating.

“They do a great job of getting turnovers,” Smith said this week. “I think that's the main thing. They've gotten a lot of turnovers. They do a great job, and they help their offense out in that way. Again, big emphasis on the ball. That's something we've always talked about. We've just got to make sure we go out there and execute.”

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The #Packers and #Seahawks will battle tonight in what could be a playoff preview.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose. (With three reasons why they'll win coming later.)⬇️https://t.co/x5wRFXRiTL

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 15, 2024

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