Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat the Saints

The Green Bay Packers need one win to wrap up a playoff spot. Here are three reasons why that will happen on Monday night.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) scores the winning touchdown against the Saints last year. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

The weather won’t be a big factor – about 30 degrees with no snow at kickoff – but the Packers don’t need to rely on Mother Nature. They have enough advantages to beat the Saints, including the most obvious.

1. Jordan Love vs. Spencer Rattler

More often than not, the team with the best quarterback wins the game.

Green Bay’s Jordan Love is rolling. He doesn’t have the gaudy stats like last year because he’s not throwing it as often, but he’s second in the NFL in passer rating since the bye.

“I think this is the best ball he’s played,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “When I look at all the little things in terms of his ability to manipulate the pocket when he’s under duress, getting the ball to his checkdowns, or whatever it may be, I think he’s playing at a really high level.”

Rattler, a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft, will be making his fourth career start. On the bright side, he hasn’t thrown an interception since his first NFL appearance more than two months ago. And he almost rallied the Saints to a victory over the Commanders last week.

“He’s a natural thrower (and) he can move in the pocket,” LaFleur said. “He’s fearless.”

On the other hand, of 43 quarterbacks with at least 120 passing attempts, Rattler ranks 41st in passer rating (73.1) and completion percentage (57.5) and 40th in yards per attempt (5.9).

“I wanted to give my receivers, give my tight ends, more chances,” Rattler said of his rally against the Commanders. “If they're one-on-one, I trust these guys to go make that play. Don't be too safe, let's go make some plays, have some explosives and that gets the momentum and juice going for the offense.

The Packers have dominated against rookie quarterbacks under LaFleur.

“I think what constitutes success for any quarterback is efficiency,” interim Saints coach Darren Rizzi said. “The turnover thing is going to be a huge thing always but, certainly, on the road and with what their record has been since Matt took over at home.

“So, I think just getting a good start for him, getting him some confidence and some positive plays early on. We’ve got to get him some confidence, get him rolling.”

2. Weapons on Offense

The Saints oddly are among the best teams in the NFL in terms of opponent completion percentage but among the worst teams in terms of passing yards allowed.

How does that add up?

Simple. Big plays.

Green Bay is tied for No. 1 in the NFL with 13 passing plays of 40-plus yards and is second with 36 passes of 25-plus yards. New Orleans has allowed 10 completions of at least 40 yards, the third-most.

The Packers have a lot of weapons in their passing game, whether it’s Christian Watson stretching the field or Jayden Reed getting loose after the catch.

“I think each and every one of our playmakers has to be able to make plays,” Watson said. “I think we’re doing a really good job at that. When opportunities come, I feel like our guys are making plays. Just got to keep it going and know that more plays are going to come our way and we got to continue to capitalize.”

The Packers’ offense is healthy and rolling, with four consecutive games of 30-plus points. 

Saints defensive coordinator Joe Woods, whose unit has been one of the best since the coaching change, knows the challenge that awaits.

“They have dynamic playmakers,” he told reporters this week. “You can see the quarterback’s athletic ability. Very similar [to Washington’s Jayden Daniels]. He has a strong arm, he can make all the throws, he extends plays. Good route-runners. They have speed. They’ve got it all. Tight end’s a good player. They’re very good at what they do.”

Here’s a big-play wild card: The Packers (with one less game than the rest of the league) are sixth with 190 yards gained via defensive-pass interference penalties, according to NFLPenalties.com. That includes two infractions for 73 yards vs. Seattle. The Saints have given up the eighth-most yards (172) on DPI.

“That is important,” Packers passing game coordinator Jason Vrable said. “That means you’re beating the man, and that’s all I really care about. You’re not going to get a pass interference if you’re not attacking edges and beating a guy. They grab and hold or they have to react that way because you beat them.”

Saints rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler doesn’t have the luxury of throwing to a bunch of “dynamic playmakers.”

Their best receiver, Chris Olave, was designated to return from injured reserve following a concussion but will miss a sixth consecutive game. Running back Alvin Kamara, who leads the team in rushing yards, receptions and receiving yards is out. Former Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is questionable due to a chest injury and illness; he did not practice this week.

Rattler is 4-of-14 on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. The Packers’ defense is fifth with 20 completions allowed of 25-plus yards.

On both sides of the ball, explosive passing is an advantage for Green Bay.

3. Josh Jacobs vs. Saints

The strength of Green Bay’s offense throughout the season has been the Josh Jacobs-powered running game.

The weakness of New Orleans’ defense has been stopping the run.

The Saints are 31st in the NFL with 4.94 yards allowed per carry. Some of that is skewed by allowing a total of 502 rushing yards in back-to-back games against Tampa Bay and Denver at midseason, but they’ve allowed at least 137 in three of five games under interim coach Darren Rizzi.

Jacobs has forced 60 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. He could be the NFL leader by the end of the game (Arizona’s James Conner has 67). The Saints have missed the eighth-most tackles, according to SportRadar.

On a chilly night, Jacobs could exacerbate the Saints’ weakness.

“I like cold games, snow games, because defenders don’t really want to hit and it kind of makes them make decisions,” said Jacobs, who entered the week ranked third in rushing. “You’ve got to make a business decision at times. It’s easier for me because I’m going to make you have to make that decision (laughs).”

One key for the Packers – not just for this game but for however long the season lasts – will be running the ball more effectively in the second half. The last four games, Jacobs has averaged just 1.75 yards per carry – one of the worst marks in the NFL.

“That’s something we’ve got to make sure when we go out there we are still locked in, we don’t have those negative plays, and we’re doing a great job communicating,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “There’s a few busts but, yeah, that’s a focus thing we’ve just got to make sure we’re focused for four quarters, for sure.”

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

Here are three reasons why the #Packers will lose to the Saints tonight.

Yes, I came up with three. Good job, me. ⬇️https://t.co/CCdLxcFbAR

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 23, 2024

Three reasons why Packers will lose to Saints | Updated NFC playoff race | Injuries derail Jordan Morgan, MarShawn Lloyd | Saints bracing for Packers, Mother Nature | Frosty’s dad emerges as potential star | Packers-Saints final injury report | Packers vs. backup quarterbacks | Packers-Saints: Five keys | How rare is this Packers-Saints point spread? | Luke Musgrave potentially returning | NFC North power rankings and previews | Packers-Saints game preview | He’s “almost like Wolverine” | He is the Packers’ No. 1 receiver | Packers-Saints: Matchups | Packers-Saints: TV, history, trends, notes | Edgerrin Cooper makes Player of the Week history