Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat the Texans

In a heavyweight showdown at Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers will score a knockout against the Houston Texans. Here’s why.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs could have a big day against the Houston Texans. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will try to extend their winning streak to three while snapping the Houston Texans’ three-game winning streak on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

Given the state of the injury report, there’s no reason why the Packers shouldn’t earn a big win against a Super Bowl contender. In fact, here are three reasons why the Packers should beat the Texans.

1. Josh Jacobs-Led Running Game

Linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) are out for the game. To’oTo’o leads the Texans in tackles while Al-Shaair is second in tackles, tied for second in tackles for losses, tied for third in passes defensed and third in quarterback hits.

Neville Hewitt and Jake Hansen are expected to start in their place. Hewitt, a 10th-year player, will be starting for the first time since late in the 2021 season. Hansen, an undrafted free agent in 2022, will be making his first start since late in his rookie season.

Combined, they’ve made nine tackles this season.

Even at full strength, run defense has not been the Texans’ strength. They are 17th with 4.55 rushing yards allowed per carry. While they tightened the grips last week against New England, the Texans the previous three games allowed 118 rushing yards to the Vikings, 158 yards to the Jaguars and 150 yards to the Bills. In Houston’s only loss this season, Minnesota’s Aaron Jones rushed 19 times for 102 yards.

Enter the Packers, who are second with 167.2 rushing yards per game and sixth with 5.07 rushing yards per attempt. Green Bay has rushed for at least 160 yards in four of six games and a total of 1,003 yards. In both cases, that’s their most since Vince Lombardi’s team in 1963.

They’ve been explosive, ranking second with 31 rushing plays of 10-plus rushing yards. They’ve been methodical, too, with the ability to grind away for tough yards against defenses trying to stop the run.

The big key: Packers running back Josh Jacobs is third with 353 rushing yards after contact, according to PFF. Only 10 other players have more rushing yards total. Meanwhile, the Texans are allowing 3.33 yards after contact per carry, tied for 10th-most.

“I’ve always thought Jacobs was a really good back,” Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke told reporters this week. “Just really have respected him every time I’ve gone against him. They’re doing a really good job, and it’s sort of the start of everything that they do in their offense. You can talk about the explosives and where they rank in the explosive passing game, and it probably ties a lot directly into their running game and having to respect that.

“I think he is really good at falling forward for these extra couple yards, or just not getting knocked back. Just keep him manageable in front of the sticks and those sort of things. A lot of kind of hidden yardage in that run game, so you got to be really physical and be good at getting hats to the ball to sort of stop that for sure. It’s directly tied into what they do in the pass game.”

2. Jordan Love-Led Passing Game

Yes, that leads directly into what the Packers do in their passing game.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love is fourth with a 127.5 passer rating on play-action passes, according to Pro Football Focus.

“Their run game marries very well with their pass game and their play-action game, so they’re giving you the same looks,” Burke said. “It’s like run, run, run and then, all the sudden, you step up and there is space behind you.

“The quarterback is talented. He’s got a good arm and he’s not afraid to put the ball down the field. Sometimes people don’t want to do all that or hold on to it and those kinds of things. I think he is willing to take some of those shots and put the ball up there and trust his receivers.”

Houston’s got a stud cornerback in Derek Stingley. Kamari Lassiter, a second-round pick in this year’s draft, has been a standout, too, ranking No. 1 among all cornerbacks in completion percentage allowed, according to PFF. However, he’s out this week, as is safety Jimmie Ward.

Losing Lassiter is huge. D’Angelo Ross, a 5-foot-9 corner who entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2019, will make his third career start.

A full-strength Texans defense held Bills star Josh Allen to just 9-of-30 passing, including 0-for-8 in the third quarter, two weeks ago. Last week, a banged-up Texans defense allowed Patriots rookie Drake Maye to throw for 243 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start last week.

“The Texans’ defense is good all around,” Love said. “I think they had a really good game that week against the Bills. I think it’s all game plan, too. We’re going to dial up some things, try to take advantage of what we’ve seen throughout the week. Comes down to going out there and making plays on Sunday. I think the Texans just made more plays than them that game.”

3. Texans Lack Back Biggest Weapon

Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst is coming off back-to-back superb drafts. The 2021 draft, on the other hand, had too many swings and misses.

In the third round, Gutekunst traded up from No. 92 to No. 85 to select receiver Amari Rodgers. At No. 89, the Texans selected receiver Nico Collins.

Oops.

Rodgers’ career might be over with 20 receptions for 249 yards and one touchdown. Collins had 252 receiving yards and one touchdown in the first two games of this season.

Collins won’t play on Sunday; he’s on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Even while not playing last week (or most of the previous game), he leads the NFL with 567 receiving yards and 23 plays of 10-plus yards.

Collins isn’t the Texans’ only receiver. Stefon Diggs is fourth with 37 receptions and second with 21 plays of 10-plus yards. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Davante Adams (653) has more receptions than Diggs (647).

Diggs, who will turn 31 next month, remains a premier target but he’s no longer got that game-breaking presence.

On Sunday, C.J. Stroud will have to beat a turnover-producing Packers defense without his best weapon.

“They fly around,” Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik told reporters this week. “I think (Packers defensive coordinator Jeff) Hafley does a really good job schematically putting them in the right spots and letting them go cut it loose and play what they see. When they get there, they make the play almost every time.

“Every mistake against this defense is costly, and that’s in the pass and the run game. You get loose with the ball in the run game, they make you pay. So, that’s really big for us. Our emphasis this whole week has been protect the ball and how intentional we have to be in doing that and how the scout team has to give us great looks at making sure that we do that in this game because that’s going to be a huge factor.”

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