Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Dolphins

The Green Bay Packers will face three big challenges against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, starting with facing one of the hottest offenses in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs with the ball against Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander in 2022. / Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, who are storming toward the playoffs with six wins in their last seven games, will host the Miami Dolphins, who have stormed back into the playoff hunt with three consecutive wins, on Thanksgiving night.

There are plenty of reasons why the Packers will win again, but here are three reasons why they will lose.

1. Dolphins’ Firepower

This is not a game to be without Jaire Alexander, but those are the circumstances as he recovers from a knee injury.

Alexander has been in and out of the lineup all year due to injuries. When he’s played, he’s been mostly excellent. When he’s been out, the Packers have struggled.

Green Bay is 2-2 with Alexander inactive. The wins? Against the Rams, who lined up without premier receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and the 49ers, who started a backup quarterback. The losses were to Minnesota and Detroit, with their superb passing attacks.

Miami’s passing attack is as good as any in the NFL.

Since coming back from a serious concussion, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa the past five weeks ranks:

- Second with a 116.2 passer rating (Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, 117.7).

- First with a 76.5 completion percentage (Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, 72.9).

- First with plus-10 touchdowns vs. interceptions (11 touchdowns, one interception).

The Dolphins’ skill-position players would win any race. Tyreek Hill is arguably the most dangerous receiver in NFL history. He is second all-time with 12 touchdowns of 75-plus yards, trailing only Hall of Famers Devin Hester (14) and Ollie Matson (13).

Hill led the NFL in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season and Jaylen Waddle, who topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons, led the NFL in yards per catch in 2022.

“They’re definitely the fastest group that we’ve seen so far on tape,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “We’ve got to do it in a variety of different ways – different coverages, different ways to try to slow them down. Ultimately, you’ve got to try to keep the ball in front of you. Hopefully, some of the things that we’re going to do, some of the adjustments we’re going to make will allow for that to happen.”

With defenses fearing the long ball, Tagovailoa has feasted on the short stuff. That’s why Hill is averaging only 11.7 yards per catch. Tagovailoa’s 5.59 air yards per attempt is by far the shortest in the NFL but he’s benefited from 6.18 yards after the catch, sixth-most.

It’s not just Hill and Waddle. Running back De’Von Achane, who led the NFL with a ridiculous 7.7 yards per catch last season, is tied with Hill with a team-leading 49 catches. The leaders in touchdown catches are Achane (five) and tight end Jonnu Smith (four).

The last five games, the Dolphins are second on third down (55.0 percent) and first on fourth down (100.0 percent). They are first in drive success (scores on 56.3 percent of their drives), second with 3.02 points per drive and fifth in the red zone (73.7 percent).

One key for Green Bay will be tackling. According to SportRadar, only five teams have missed more. Of the 12 teams with the most missed tackles, Green Bay is the only one with a winning record.

Another key will be pressuring Tagovailoa, but good luck with that. During those last five games, Miami is fifth in sack percentage allowed (5.3) and sixth in quarterback hits allowed (14).

“Tua, he does such a great job of throwing with anticipation,” LaFleur said. “He’s as good as it gets in this league. So, you’ve got to make sure you try to disrupt the timing somehow, some way, whether it’s getting him off the spot, because he will make you pay.

“If there’s just a sliver of light in there, he trusts his wideouts to be in the right spot. He hits his back foot and that ball gets out of his hands. So, it’s a great challenge.”

2. Situational Shortcomings

Was Sunday’s win against the 49ers the breakthrough Green Bay’s offense has been looking for all season?

The Packers entered last week’s game ranked 27th in the red zone with a touchdown rate of 48.7 percent. Against the 49ers, they went 5-of-5.

Before the game, the Packers’ red-zone play selection was pretty close to a 50-50 split with 53 runs and 46 passes. Against San Francisco, it was 13 runs and three passes. Josh Jacobs ran for three touchdowns and Jordan Love threw for two others.

Whatever the approach, the Packers will face a huge challenge against the Dolphins, who are seventh in red-zone defense (48.3 percent touchdowns) and seventh in goal-to-go (64.7 percent touchdowns). The last three games, opponents are 1-of-6 in the red zone. Going back further, opponents are just 6-of-19.

That’s total domination of the most important part of the field. Whether it’s Jacobs using his power or Love using his arm and legs, the Packers must show last week’s red-zone success wasn’t just a blip on the radar.

“The short weeks are tough but, obviously, trying to get as much film in as possible and understand who you’re going against, and then (learning) the game plan,” Love said.

“We have a short week, we’re cramming two days into one today with third downs and red zone. So, everybody being locked in here, staying in the playbook when we get home and, obviously, getting our bodies back and having everybody healthy is kind of the key.”

3. Dolphins vs. the Big Play

The Packers’ offense is built on big plays. They are fourth in the league with 50 plays of 20-plus yards. Broken down, they are sixth with 39 passes of 20 yards and fifth with 11 runs of 20-plus yards.

Miami, however, has allowed only 34 plays of 20-plus yards – seventh-fewest in the league. Only five teams have allowed fewer 20-yard passes than Miami’s 27. The last four games, opposing quarterbacks have completed three passes on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

“I think their defense is outstanding,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “It’s really tough to get explosive plays on them. They’re very good in the red zone, third down, so I think it’s just a very sound system.

“They do a great job and they have a lot of variations to it, so I think (defensive coordinator) Anthony Weaver and his staff, Joe B(arry), obviously, has been a big help to him. Weaver’s done a heck of a job down there and they’ve got talented players and good scheme, so it’s going to be quite the challenge.”

Miami’s defense forces offenses to take the long road to the end zone. That’s not exactly how Jordan Love wants to play, so he’ll have to play with patience against a defense that doesn’t give up big plays and precision against a defense that ranks fifth on third down.

“I definitely am a guy who always wants those big plays, wants to put that pressure on a defense and take some of those shots,” Love said. “I think it’s a credit to the guys we’ve got in the receiving room, too, that I trust those guys to be able to take some of those shots.

“Those are the lessons I had to learn last year and I’m continuing to learn, weighing the right time to take those shots, if guys get a step or if we get the right coverage vs. just finding those completions, because these checkdowns and just finding those completions turn into big plays, as well, sometimes. Just understanding where I need to go with the ball. But I love pushing the envelope and pushing the ball downfield, for sure.”

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Including Josh Jacobs' short-week history, here are three reasons why the #Packers will beat the Dolphins tonight. ⬇️https://t.co/7pXO5yRW3n

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 28, 2024

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