Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have won four consecutive games. A couple of those trends could be big factors against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf (14) tries to get away from Green Bay Packers during the 2019 playoffs. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will face the Seattle Seahawks in one of the most intimidating venues in the NFL, Lumen Field, on Sunday night.

The Packers are 2.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook and elsewhere, but here are three reasons why they will be upset by Seattle.

1. Seattle’s Passing Game

On paper, this is the big mismatch.

With former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander out again and rookie safety Javon Bullard out as well, the Packers are thin in the secondary. That’s not exactly ideal given the opponent.

“When you’re playing against some premier players, sometimes it’s helpful to have a premier player to have out there with him,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said on Thursday, when he might have expected Alexander to line up against Seattle’s premier players.

DK Metcalf is a premier player – and has been for a while. In his sixth season, Metcalf has 54 receptions for 812 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games. He’s on his way to his fourth 1,000-yard season and has a chance to match Randy Moss by going 6-for-6 to start his career with seasons of 50 receptions, 900 yards and three touchdowns.

“They're a great team in this league right now and they've won some tough games, but it's going to be a great game for us,” Metcalf told reporters in Seattle. “They're a competitive team and it's going to be a good test for us to have a team of that caliber come in here and try to beat us. But I'm taking us 10 days out of 10.”

At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, he’s a physical mismatch for any defensive back. When he entered the NFL as a second-round pick in 2019, he had 4.33 speed and a 40.5-inch vertical.

With all those tools, he is a matchup nightmare. Only Pittsburgh’s George Pickens (14) has more receptions on deep passes than Metcalf (13), according to PFF.

“No team that we've faced is just going to leave him one-on-one,” Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith told reporters this week. “I think it's a gift and a curse because you want to throw him the ball as much as you can. You want to give him the ball. But you also realize you can't force it.

“But he's understanding, man. He's drawing so much attention that it's opening up things for other guys, and him being the selfless player that he is, the selfless person that he is, he enjoys that.”

One of those “other guys” is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the team’s first-round pick last year. He is sixth in the NFL with 75 receptions and fifth with 911 yards. He’s scored five touchdowns, forced 10 missed tackles and dropped only two passes, according to Pro Football Focus.

With Smith ranking second in the NFL in passing attempts, Seattle has one of the most pass-happy attacks in the NFL. He is going to put all sorts of stress on a defense with a banged-up secondary and suspect pass rush.

Green Bay’s pass defense, which finished last week’s game without Alexander, Bullard and safety Evan Williams, allowed Jared Goff to complete his final 13 passes.

Does Xavier McKinney like the state of the pass defense?

“I do. It’s going to be a challenge, though,” he said. “Like you said, they’ve thrown the ball a ton this year, and it’s going to be a challenge. We’re going to have to be on our Ps and Qs. They’ve got really good receivers, guys that can make plays really whenever they touch the ball.

“What’s crazy is DK, I don’t even think he’s their leading receiver. I think it’s Njigba, so that should tell you a lot about the guys that they have on their team, the receivers that they have. But we’ll be ready and prepared for the challenge.”

2. Seattle’s Passing Defense

The Seahawks don’t exactly have a who’s-who list of defensive backs in their secondary. And their pass rush is 17th in sack percentage and 18th in pass-rush win rate.

However, that group is playing as well as any in the NFL as they’ve really found their stride under defense-centric coach Mike Macdonald.

During their four-game winning streak, Seattle is second in opponent passer rating (78.6).

During that same span, Packers quarterback Jordan Love is third in passer rating (118.8) – even better than he was during his sensational stretch run last year.

“They’re definitely a really good defense,” Love said. “I think it starts up front with their D-line. They have a good D-line. Obviously, (Leonard) Williams is a really good rusher. They’re a solid defense all around. They’re very sound.

“I think the big thing with these guys is you’ve got to stay out of the negative plays, going backwards, pre-snap penalties, turnovers – all those things is where they thrive. I think third down they’re pretty good, as well. We’ve got to be able to stay on track, have positive plays and convert third downs, but they’re a solid defense.”

Green Bay, which ranks third in sack percentage allowed, will be challenged by Seattle’s front of Williams (seven sacks), Derick Hall (six) and Boye Mafe (five).

“He’s having a monster year,” coach Matt LaFleur said of Williams, who is second among interior defenders and sixth overall with 20 quarterback hits. “Shoot, the Jets game, he overtook that game and he’s got that capability, so he’s a guy that you better understand who you’re going against and what he’s capable of doing.”

In the secondary, cornerback Riq Woolen, who was All-Rookie and a Pro Bowler in 2022, when he led the NFL in interceptions, has two interceptions and a team-high nine passes defensed. Devon Witherspoon, who was the fifth pick of last year’s draft, has a team-high three interceptions, eight passes defensed and has allowed just 9.2 yards per catch. Safety Julian Love is No. 1 with 88 tackles and has two interceptions.

Here’s a great matchup: For the season, Love is No. 1 with 13.2 yards per completion. During their winning streak, Seattle is No. 1 with 8.98 yards allowed per completion. Just how dominant is that? They are the only team yielding less than 10.5.

“They’re going to throw a lot of different things at you, and I think they’re pretty game-plan specific,” LaFleur said. “You’ve got to be ready to adjust to them.”

3. Seattle’s Homefield Advantage

Seattle’s homefield advantage is famous, even if a little overrated.

The Seahawks this year are just 3-4 at Lumen Field. At one point, they lost four in a row.

But you can’t ignore the history, and it will be impossible to ignore the record-setting noise.

In primetime home games since 2010, the Seahawks are 24-8.

Since the stadium opened in 2005, opponents have been flagged for a league-high 244 false starts.

Green Bay’s offense handled the noise well during the second half at Detroit, when it scored three touchdowns and one field goal in its five possessions. It was a dismal first half that doomed the team.

“There were a few times where I couldn’t hear him that well,” receiver Christian Watson said of quarterback Jordan Love in the huddle. “I kind of had to piece together the play. I’d hear him say a couple words. ‘I know that we have that on only one play.’ So, sometimes I’d do that; sometimes, I’d have to ask him real quick after the huddle one more time. It was definitely tough.”

Does it help that the Packers just played in a challenging road environment?

“It’s irrelevant. It’s definitely hard to hear, regardless,” Watson said.

As Packers coach Matt LaFleur has said multiple times, the one advantage the offense has is knowing the snap count. That advantage goes out the window when nobody can hear the quarterback.

“Obviously, we all know Seattle’s stadium is one of the loudest in the world,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “So that’s something we’ve definitely got to make sure we do a good job of, handling that crowd and that environment and being professional about that.”

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