Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to the Saints

The Green Bay Packers are expected to beat the New Orleans Saints, but they are playing much better down the stretch. Here are three reasons why the Saints could spring the upset.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) against New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan last season. / Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are enormous favorites to beat the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, and for good reason.

The Packers are at home. It will be somewhat cold. The quarterback matchup will be Jordan Love vs. Spencer Rattler.

Still, the Saints have shown plenty of fight under interim coach Darren Rizzi. Here are three reasons why the Saints will beat the Packers.

1. Superb Saints Defense

The Saints are 5-10 this season but 3-2 since Darren Rizzi took over as interim coach.

During those five games, no team in the NFL has given up fewer points than the Saints’ 16.6 per game. Even in their losses, they gave up 21 points to the Rams and 20 points to the Commanders – two teams who are pointed toward the playoffs

For context, a week later, the Rams scored 44 points against Buffalo. Sandwiched between the Saints game, the Commanders scored 42 against the Titans and 36 against the Eagles.

“The Saints have done an outstanding job,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “Teams are having a hard time moving the ball and having a hard time scoring points.

“A lot of these games have been close. They’ve lost four games by three points or less. You’re talking about – that’s a very minimal difference. They could easily be sitting at 9-5 right now. I think our guys realize what type of team is coming in here and what’s at stake. So, I would expect us to play our best ball.”

The Saints have a strong defensive line, led by tackle Bryan Bresee and ends Cameron Jordan, Carl Granderson and Chase Young. Linebacker Demario Davis has been a first- or second-team All-Pro each of the last five seasons. He has a team-high 104 tackles.

“He’s a really good football player, talented,” offensive line coach Luke Butkus said of Bresee, last year’s first-round pick. “But what stands out with him is his effort. The guy doesn’t stop and he has a motor. If he was really good and he took a couple plays off here and there, we could weather that storm. But when you’re that good and you play hard, you better be able to match his intensity, his physicality.

“We’ve got to own the line of scrimmage. That’s what we’re talking about this week. It starts with those interior guys and works their way out to 94 (Jordan) and 96 (Granderson) on the other side.”

2. Pass Defense, In Particular

New Orleans’ pass defense has been strong all season.

While the official stats say the Saints are 28th in the NFL with 242.2 passing yards allowed per game, other stats tell a different story.

The Saints are fourth in opponent passer rating, including third in road games. They are fifth in opponent completion percentage, including second in road games.

The pass rush can be fierce. The Saints had eight sacks last week in a 20-19 loss to the Washington Commanders. Cameron Jordan, who ranks second among active players with 120.5 sacks, had just one sack before collecting two against the Commanders.

“Cam was disappointed in his playing time earlier in the season – that’s not a big secret,” interim coach Darren Rizzi told reporters this week. “I think he's benefiting from all his years of experience, and he's providing a spark for us right now.

“It's good to see the old guy in the room kind of providing the spark. He comes here every day and you wouldn't know if he was a second-year player or a 15-year guy just by the way he walks around every day. Credit to Cam – love his energy, love his leadership, love his passion. I've seen a re-energized guy that's out there flying around and having fun.”

Defensive tackle Bryan Bresee has 7.5 sacks, defensive ends Carl Granderson and Chase Young have 5.5 apiece, and cornerback Alontae Taylor has four.

“Those guys are playing their best football,” Rizzi said of his defensive line.

Said Butkus: “All eight of them that they play, all eight of them are big, all of them are strong. They have some veteran leadership up there. They’re physical and they play with great effort. I like the guys that are really good that don’t play hard. These guys are really good and they play hard.”

The Saints are 11th with 13 interceptions. Longtime star safety Tyrann Mathieu has three. Cornerback Alontae Taylor has a team-high 13 passes defensed. He had one sack and five pass breakups against the Packers last season.

“They’ve just been playing tough defense,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They’ve always had a pretty formidable front seven, and I would say that still remains true. And then they got guys that can take the ball away in the back, and they really challenge you.

“I think Taylor’s a really good corner. Obviously, the Honey Badger (Mathieu), he knows how to get the ball away. So, they still got great players back there.”

Rizzi said the key will be producing takeaways. The Saints have just two in his five games, with zero in the two losses.

“These last five games, that's something that we can definitely get better at is taking the football away,” Rizzi said. “We were leading the league in interceptions there for a while. The good news is we haven't turned the ball over a lot these last five games. The bad news is we haven't taken it away.

“Up there in their place, I think that Matt LaFleur's teams are 24-0 at home when they've won the turnover battle and they're under .500 at home when they lose a turnover battle. So, this is going to be the key to the game.”

3. Red Zone

One phase where the Saints excel is in the red zone.

On offense, the Saints are 10th in the red zone (60.0 percent touchdowns) and first in goal-to-go (88.9 percent touchdowns). Green Bay’s defense is 20th in both areas.

On defense, the Saints are 10th in the red zone (51.2 percent touchdowns) and 11th on third down (37.3 percent conversions). They will challenge a Green Bay offense that has sputtered on third down all season (17th, 37.9 percent) but found its groove in the red zone (14th, 56.9 percent, but 70.8 percent in the five games since the bye).

“It’ll be a good matchup,” Packers quarterback Jordan Love said. “They definitely have a solid D-line with some good guys over there that do a good job rushing the passer. That had a lot of success with the sacks. So just something you’ve got to be conscious of, but our O-line’s been doing a great job keeping me protected, giving me enough time.

“It’s one of those things I have to do a great job (of) just getting the ball out of my hands quick and make great, quick decisions and not be holding it too long because, obviously, the sack that we did have against Detroit, I think it was just holding the ball too long. It puts a lot of stress on the O-line right there. So, I’ve got to do a great job for those guys.”

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