Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to the Texans

The Green Bay Packers (4-2) will face the Houston Texans (5-1) on Sunday. In a battle between two of the best teams in the NFL, here are three reasons why the Packers will fall short.

Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10). / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Houston Texans are on the short list of real Super Bowl contenders. However, with four defensive starters and their top receiver out of commission, the Green Bay Packers have a golden opportunity to earn a big victory on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

However, the Texans, even in their beat-up state, are no joke. Here are three reasons why Houston will bring the heat for the “Winter Warning” Game and beat the Packers.

1. Welcome Back, Joe Mixon

The Texans’ only loss this season came at Minnesota when they were without running backs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce due to injuries. Both players returned to action last week at New England and were the difference.

Mixon rushed 13 times for 102 yards with a long run of 59 as well as a 20-yard touchdown. Pierce ran eight times for 76 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown.

The 28-year-old Mixon ranks eighth with 5.50 yards per carry. He finished a season with an average of 4.20 yards per carry just once in his career – way back in 2018.

“He’s still playing at an elite level,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “You could see a difference last week when he’s back in action. He’s a really physical runner. There’s nothing he can’t do. He’s a load. He’s a threat in the passing game. He’s a great pass protector.

“I just think he’s a complete back, a guy that we’ve always kind of admired from afar, just watching how he runs. He definitely made a difference last week. He had a couple explosion runs. There was one in the passing game, as well. I think their offense takes on a different complexion when he’s in the game.”

Mixon might not have elite speed or shiftiness, and he’s not going to break a bunch of tackles. In fact, according to Sports Info Solution, he has the lowest missed-tackle rate among backs with at least 50 carries. His 2.5 yards after contact per carry ranks toward the bottom of the list, too. But he’s tougher than a $6 steak. (Hey, inflation.) He’s one of those backs who gets hit at 2 yards but finishes the run with another 2 or 3 yards.

“I think Mixon’s a really good player. A violent runner, strong, sees it well,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Big-play, explosive guy. That’s the one thing when you turn on their tape, they’re No. 1 in explosive passes. And then when he’s in the game, there’s the explosive-run element because he can go.

“I think both backs are really good players, the line’s good and, obviously, they have really good receivers. I know Nico’s out but (Stefon) Diggs is a great player and so are those other guys. It’s one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL with a good running game, a good quarterback and a good coach. This is going to be a great challenge for us, and we’re excited for that.”

2. C.J. Stroud’s Slinging It

The Texans will be without their best playmaker, receiver Nico Collins, but great quarterbacks have the ability to make the offense sing with whoever the accompanying players.

“He’s super-talented and, obviously, he’s got the ability where the moment’s not too big for him,” LaFleur said. “He can process very fast and he’s a very good anticipatory thrower, which I think is kind of a lost art. I think he does a great job with that, and he’s got some weapons around him, too, because it’s never all about the quarterback.”

Last year as the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud led the league in passing yards per game (273.0) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.60). He became the third rookie quarterback in NFL history to finish the season with a 100-plus passer rating (minimum 100 attempts).

The return of Mixon will help create a play-action element. On play-action, Stroud is seventh with a 121.5 passer rating. He’s top 10 with a 72.3 percent completion rate and 9.5 yards per attempt.

Houston has 41 “explosive” passing plays – defined as a completion of 18-plus yards. That’s seven more than any other team and 10 more than Green Bay’s fourth-ranked 31.

“I was at Ohio State as a coordinator when we recruited him, so I remember him on his visits,” Hafley said. “For him to come in last year and have the early success that he did, he sees the game really well, he’s really accurate, he has a big arm.

“He’s more athletic than people think, and I keep telling everybody that. He’s bigger than you think, too. He’s got a big lower body, he’s got a strong base, he’s hard to tackle. He’s poised. I think he’s a really good player right now and I think eventually he’s going to be one of the premier guys if not sooner than later.”

3. High-Powered Pass Rush

Everyone knows the strength of the Texans. It’s their pass rush, which is led by defensive ends Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.

Last year, Anderson won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year for the Texans and Hunter had 16.5 sacks and an NFL-leading 23 tackles for losses with the Vikings.

This year, Anderson is tied for fifth in the NFL with 5.5 sacks and Hunter has 2.5. According to Next Gen Stats, Hunter is second in the NFL with 32 pressures and Anderson is seventh with 28.

According to Pro Football Focus, 63 edge defenders have had at least 100 pass-rushing opportunities. Hunter is eighth and Anderson is 18th in pass-rush win rate.

“Their get-off is incredible,” offensive line coach Luke Butkus said. “Very good pass rushers. A lot of moves and they play really hard. It’s always a bad combination when you have really good players that play really hard.”

While they flip sides, Hunter mostly goes against the right tackle – Green Bay’s Zach Tom in this case. That means Anderson mostly will face left tackle Rasheed Walker.

These will be terrific matchups. Of 67 offensive tackles to play at least 100 pass-protecting snaps, Tom is eighth in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency, which measures sacks, hits and hurries per pass-blocking snap. PFF has charged him with one sack and six total pressures. Walker is 37th with one sack and 14 total pressures, but his man has not hit the quarterback since Week 1.

“We’ve got a challenge with these two rushers this week,” Butkus said. “We’re always going to harp fundamentals. That’s what this position is about. It’s the most unnatural skill to learn playing football.

“Nobody grows up saying, ‘Hey, I want to block somebody.’ They throw the football, they catch the ball, they run the ball. So, we can constantly get better and keep improving by using our fundamentals, our sets, our pad level, our hands and our footwork. Those guys are professionals. They’re going to keep working at it and keep battling every day.”

Keeping Love out of harm’s way will be critical.

According to PFF, 31 quarterbacks have had at least 30 under-pressure dropbacks. Love is 29th in completion percentage (but fifth in yards per attempt) and 19th in passer rating. By contrast, Stroud is fourth in completion percentage, second in yards per attempt and fifth in passer rating.

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The #Packers and #Texans are two of the best teams in the NFL. We'll get to the other side of the coin later today, but here are three reasons why Green Bay should win on Sunday (and perhaps win comfortably). ⬇️https://t.co/vLSDalhbYS

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 19, 2024

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