Packer Central

Updated NFC Playoff Picture, Wild-Card Matchup for Packers

Here’s a look at the NFC playoff picture following the Green Bay Packers’ blowout victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) celebrates scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers.
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) celebrates scoring a touchdown in the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers didn’t gain any ground in the NFC playoff race on Sunday but they did get some breathing room.

With the Packers clobbering the San Francisco 49ers and the Washington Commanders getting upset at home by the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay (8-3) has a game-and-a-half lead over Washington (7-5) for the sixth seed and a two-and-a-half game lead in the wild-card race.

They just didn’t make any headway in the race for the fifth seed, with the Minnesota Vikings improving to 9-2 by surviving the Chicago Bears in overtime.

“Third in the division,” safety Xavier McKinney. “We just got to keep stacking, keep finding ways to go out there and win these games because, obviously, we know the division is going to be tight. It's probably going to come down to the wire. We know that and we understand that, so that means the room for error is very, very thin and we just got to make sure that we're always on the right details and executing.”

Packers Playoff Matchup

If the season were to end today, the Packers as the sixth seed would play at the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks (6-5) in the wild-card round. The Arizona Cardinals started the day atop the West but lost in Seattle 16-6.

That game would be a rematch. After the Packers host the Miami Dolphins on Thursday and play at the Detroit Lions the following Thursday, they’ll play at the Seahawks on Sunday night in Week 15.

NFC Playoff Standings

Here are the updated NFC standings, followed by updated playoff probabilities.

1. Detroit Lions: 10-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 6-5 (first place, NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 9-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 8-3 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 7-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Arizona Cardinals: 6-5 (second place, NFC West)

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-6 (second place, NFC South)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 5-6 (third place, NFC West)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 5-6 (fourth place, NFC West)

12. New Orleans Saints: 4-7 (third place, NFC South)

13. Chicago Bears: 4-7 (fourth place, NFC North)

14. Dallas Cowboys: 4-7 (third place, NFC East)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-8 (fourth place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-9 (last place, NFC East)

Packers Playoff Probabilities

Green Bay would have to implode in horrific fashion to not earn a playoff spot.

According to The New York Times, the Packers have a 96 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. A win on Thanksgiving against the Dolphins would push that to 99 percent. Even with a loss, Green Bay’s playoff probability would be 92 percent.

The 49ers are down to 5 percent, even though they’re only a game behind in the NFC West.

NFL.com: The Packers are up to 90 percent.

Six Games Remaining

The Packers do face a challenging closing schedule, with their six remaining opponents having a combined winning percentage of .576.

“It makes it fun, to me, because it makes every game feel like you’ve got to do a little more,” running back Josh Jacobs said after a three-touchdown performance. “You’ve got to make a play and things like that, you’ve got to be a little more special. So, it’s definitely a crazy division, but it’s one that’s been fun so far.”

Week 13: Miami Dolphins (5-6; won three in a row)

Week 14: at Detroit Lions (10-1; won nine in a row)

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (6-5; won two in a row after losing of five six before their bye)

Week 16: New Orleans Saints (4-7; won two in a row before this week’s bye)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (9-2; won four in a row)

Week 18: Chicago Bears (4-7; lost five in a row)

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.