Updated! Packers Roster Lock-O-Meter

The final sprint to training camp is underway for the Green Bay Packers. Exactly one week from today, the team will have to cut its roster to 53 players. Here’s how it’s shaping up.

The Green Bay Packers huddle on offense against the Denver Broncos. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

GREEN BAY, Wis. – A critically important final week of Green Bay Packers training camp is here. The Packers will practice on Tuesday and hold a joint practice against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday before hosting the Ravens in the preseason finale on Saturday.

Exactly a week from today, Tuesday the 27th, general manager Brian Gutekunst will have to pick the initial 53-man roster.

Using the patent-pending Lock-O-Meter 2024, here is a look at the 91-man roster.

100 Percent Locks: 37

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love.

Running backs: Josh Jacobs, AJ Dillon.

Receivers: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks.

Tight ends: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft.

Offensive line: LT Rasheed Walker, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Josh Myers, RT Zach Tom, G/C Sean Rhyan, OL Jordan Morgan.

Defensive ends: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare.

Defensive tackles: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, TJ Slaton, Karl Brooks, Colby Wooden.

Linebackers: Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Wilson, Edgerrin Cooper, Ty’Ron Hopper.

Cornerbacks: Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine.

Safeties: Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard, Evan Williams.

Specialists: P Daniel Whelan.

No explanation is needed for this category. These are the starters and key backups.

The lone update was moving running back AJ Dillon up a couple notches. That Dillon was among the large contingent of starters who did not suit up for Sunday night’s game at Denver is all you need to know. Not that his roster spot was in any real jeopardy, anyway. He has earned the utmost trust from the coaching staff to block the right player and hang onto the football.

90.0 Percent to 99.9 Percent Locks: 3

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: MarShawn Lloyd.

Receivers: None.

Tight ends: None.

Offensive line: G/C Jacob Monk

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: Anthony Johnson.

Specialists: None.

This group did not change.

Lloyd, obviously, is in no danger of being released next week but he could be a candidate to open the season on injured reserve.

Monk is probably closer to 99.9 percent than 90.0 percent on the spectrum. He’s not ready to be a Day 1 starter but it’s easy to project him competing for a starting job next year. His athleticism, strength and mentality are exactly what you need.

Even with Javon Bullard seemingly locked into the starting lineup, Johnson has continued taking at least a few first-team reps.

65.0 Percent to 89.9 Percent Locks: 8

Quarterbacks: Sean Clifford.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: Grant DuBose.

Tight ends: None.

Offensive line: T Andre Dillard.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Corey Ballentine, Kalen King,

Safeties: Kitan Oladapo.

Specialists: K Anders Carlson, LS Matt Orzech.

The lone changes here are moving offensive tackle Andre Dillard and kicker Anders Carlson up a notch and receiver Bo Melton down to the next category.

Dillard started on Sunday and played only 14 snaps. Earlier in the week, offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said pass protection is the priority for a swing offensive tackle. In 29 pass-protecting snaps in two preseason games, Dillard has not allowed a single pressure.

DuBose remains a notch above Malik Heath but the gap has closed. After an excellent game at Cleveland last week, DuBose dropped his two opportunities against the Broncos. He did have an excellent snap of punt coverage.

The cornerback depth has been surprisingly strong. We’ll stick with Ballentine and King in this tier. Ballentine, who probably saved Green Bay’s playoff hopes last year, played well against the Broncos and is a proven player on special teams. King missed a couple tackles on Sunday but has had a good camp overall.

Oladapo played his first defensive snaps of the preseason against Denver and contributed four tackles. His skill-set makes him a natural on special teams.

Carlson moved up because Greg Joseph moved down.

50.1 Percent to 64.4 Percent Locks: 6

Quarterbacks: Michael Pratt.

Running backs: Emanuel Wilson.

Receivers: Bo Melton.

Tight ends: Ben Sims, Tyler Davis.

Offensive line: None.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: Brenton Cox.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

Wilson and Cox were moved up a rung and Melton landed here.

Wilson carried the ball 13 times for 41 yards against the Broncos, a rather feeble 3.2-yard average. That’s not very good but, by our count, he gained 42 yards after contact. So, he made something out of nothing, which is one heck of an attribute.

Cox had a sack and five pressures against Denver.

After dropping three passes against the Browns, Melton caught two passes for 10 yards against Denver. The totality of his training camp suggests he should make the team, but he’ll need to finish strong to hold off Malik Heath.

Sims had a big week at practice, and special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia will lobby to keep Davis.

50 Percent Roster Locks: 4

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: Malik Heath.

Tight ends: None.

Offensive line: T Kadeem Telfort.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: Kristian Welch.

Cornerbacks: Robert Rochell.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

The addition is Telfort. Assuming Morgan, the first-round pick, starts, the backups would be Rhyan, Monk, Dillard and … someone. Telfort is that someone. Maybe the Packers can do better on the waiver wire but offensive tackles don’t grown on trees, and Telfort has played left tackle and right tackle (compared to only right tackle for rookie Travis Glover).

Welch, Rochell and Heath had good games against the Broncos and are worthy of being on the 53, but the numbers could work against them.

Heath caught three passes for 22 yards. The Packers love his physicality but he’s not the only receiver on the team who can block.

The Packers will spend most of the season playing only two linebackers. With Welch, the Packers would have six. The wild card here is the health of second-round pick Edgerrin Cooper. If Cooper winds up on short-term injured reserve, Welch almost certainly would make the roster.

Rochell has turned in two strong preseason games and has run with the No. 2 defense all summer. He is a good player. However, Valentine returned to practice last week, Ballentine is a proven commodity and King has had a promising camp.

30.0 Percent to 49.9 Percent Locks: 7

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: Samori Toure.

Tight ends: Joel Wilson.

Offensive line: G Royce Newman, T Travis Glover, T Caleb Jones.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: Jonathan Ford.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: Zayne Anderson.

Specialists: None.

Nobody got moved up a notch.

This is Year 4 for Newman and Year 3 for Toure, Ford and Jones. General manager Brian Gutekunst is a patient man but his patience doesn’t last forever. Like most GMs, he’s pretty consistent in churning over the bottom of the roster. If a player hasn’t become a consistent contributor in X number of years, it’s time to take a shot on someone else.

It was interesting to see Toure, once again, playing significantly fewer snaps than DuBose, Heath and Melton.

It was equally interesting to see Newman play every snap against Denver. The Packers have some interior depth with Rhyan (or Morgan) and Monk.

Ford is a good player but the 2022 seventh-round pick didn’t play in a single game in 2022 and 2023 and is up against it from a numbers perspective in 2024.

As a sixth-round pick, Glover’s probably closer to 49.9 percent and Jones is probably much closer to 30.0 percent.

0.0 Percent to 29.9 Percent Locks: 26

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Ellis Merriweather, Jarveon Howard, Nate McCrary.

Receivers: Julian Hicks, Dimitri Stanley, Jalen Wayne.

Tight ends: Messiah Swinson.

Offensive line: Donovan Jennings, Luke Tenuta, Lecitus Smith.

Defensive ends: Arron Mosby, Deslin Alexandre, Brevin Allen, Zach Morton, Keshawn Banks, Kenneth Odumegwu.

Defensive tackles: James Ester, Spencer Waege.

Linebackers: Ralen Goforth, Chris Russell, Christian Young.

Cornerbacks: Gemon Green, LJ Davis.

Safeties: Benny Sapp.

Specialists: K Greg Joseph, K Alex Hale.

Two players, Joseph and Goforth, fell into this category.

It’s always been the assumption that the Packers would prefer Carlson to win the job and that Joseph would have to deliver a clear knockout. Four misses at a practice in Green Bay and an ugly miss at Denver could spell the end for Joseph.

Goforth might be the only hope for the Packers to extend their streak to 20 consecutive years in which at least one undrafted rookie made the 53. The concussion suffered against Denver could be a significant obstacle, though.

There are some quality practice-squad options here.

One of them will be the undrafted Jennings. The Packers guaranteed $100,000 of his salary, only to see him miss most of camp with a knee injury. They liked him in April; there’s no reason not to get a longer look.

Sapp is a quality player, Waege, Morton and Allen have preseason sacks, Mosby has had a quietly good summer, and Howard and Hicks had some standout moments at Cleveland.

The Packers will be given a practice-squad exemption for keeping Odumegwu. So, their practice squad will be 17 strong.

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What can the #Packers do at backup quarterback? Well, other than cross their fingers and toes about Jordan Love staying healthy again, not much. ⬇️https://t.co/FrwDslhndU

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) August 20, 2024

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