Updated Playoff Probabilities: Packers Want Rematch Against Lions

Here are the latest NFC playoff standings and probabilities, and what the Green Bay Packers had to say about it following a loss to the Detroit Lions on Thursday night.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) walks off the field alongside Rasheed Walker after the loss to the Lions. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

DETROIT – After the Green Bay Packers lost 34-31 to the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, players already were looking forward to a potential third game in the playoffs.

“We’re definitely going to be back here and we’ll be excited to play them again once we do,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “It’s tough, it’s a tough loss. Got to get better from here, and we will get better from here.”

Packers coach Matt LaFleur was more focused on next week’s game at the Seattle Seahawks rather than next month’s potential playoff rematch.

“Yeah, that’s a long way away,” he said. “If we don’t look at what we have right in front of us, then we’re doing ourselves a disservice. You’ve got to keep your eyes down and just continue to work and grind and get better, stay together. All these games from here on out, like I told our team, they’re going to come down to situations like this.

“I think we’re a really good football team. I think we’re going to get everybody’s best shot just like we’re going to give everybody our best shot. It’s just a few plays here and there that really separate these types of games.”

With the Lions winning an 11th consecutive game to improve to 12-1, the Packers essentially are out of the NFC North race with their 9-4 record. However, their playoff chances barely wavered.

Latest Packers Playoff Probabilities

According to The New York Times, the Packers had a 99 percent chance to reach the playoffs before the game. By losing to the Lions, that fell all the way to … 98 percent, based on more than 64,000 simulations.

At NFL.com, the Packers went from a 97 percent chance of making the playoffs to 96 percent.

At Playoff Status, the loss leaves the Packers with a 96 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Broken down, it’s 21 percent as the No. 5 seed, 56 percent as the No. 6 seed and 20 percent as the No. 7 seed.

Why did the probabilities barely change? Probably because a Lions victory was baked into the cake. Plus, Green Bay will end the week with no worse than a two-game lead for at least the No. 7 seed.

Quarterback Jordan Love, like LaFleur, didn’t want to get ahead of himself.

“That’s one thing we just got to continue to take a week at a time like we always talk about,” he said. “Obviously, we got a couple games left here and we’re trying to finish on the right note and win out these last couple of games, handle business, take it one game at a time and, obviously, we’ll see what happens postseason time.”

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions: 12-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 7-5 (first place, NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-6 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 10-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 9-4 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 8-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6 (second place, NFC South)

9. Arizona Cardinals: 6-6 (second place, NFC West)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 6-6 (third place, NFC West)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 5-7 (last place)

12. Dallas Cowboys: 5-7 (third place, NFC East)

13. New Orleans Saints: 4-8 (third place, NFC South)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-8 (last place, NFC North)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-9 (last place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-10 (last place, NFC East)

Packers Closing Schedule

The Packers have four games remaining, with two at home against also-rans and two on the road against potential playoff teams.

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Week 16: New Orleans Saints (4-8)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

Week 18: Chicago Bears (4-8)

“We got everything that we want ahead of us still – not everything maybe,” receiver Christian Watson said, acknowledging the NFC North title has slipped through their fingertips. “But we got to treat every game like a playoff game from here on out. We got to treat every game like this one. We got to find a way to win.”

Potential NFC Playoff Bracket

The Lions took a big step toward clinching the No. 1 seed; they have an 84 percent probability to get a first-round bye and homefield advantage.

If the standings remain unchanged, wild-card weekend would send the sixth-seeded Packers to the third-seeded Seahawks, which would be a rematch of next Sunday night’s game.

The lowest surviving seed after the wild-card round would play at the Lions in the divisional round.

“We’ll be all right,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “We’ll probably see them again. I don’t think it’s a psychological thing. These two games, you watch these games and it’s right there now. It’s just little things. It’s not even they’re doing things to necessarily beat us. We’re beating ourselves. If you look at these two games that we played them, we had beaten ourselves. We just got to do a better job with that.”

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Trash talking.
Throat slashing.
Big hits.

What a wild night for the #Packers in Detroit. ⬇️https://t.co/cw4G1xi2f0

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 6, 2024

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