Vikings at Packers: Three Reasons for Optimism

The Green Bay Packers are set for their NFC North showdown against the Minnesota Vikings. It’s a huge game, even if it’s only September. Here are three reasons why the Packers will win, regardless of who is playing quarterback.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed catches a touchdown pass at the Minnesota Vikings last year. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers will host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field. It will be a huge Week 4 showdown. With a win, the Packers would be tied for first place in the NFC North. With a loss, they’d be two games off the pace.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will earn a pivotal victory.

1. Pass Rush Will Pressure Sam Darnold

Finally unleashed last week, Green Bay’s defensive front was the sharks and Titans quarterback Will Levis was the chum.

The Packers recorded eight sacks against Levis, who might not be Jalen Hurts 2.0 but he’s got pretty good mobility. Now in his seventh year in the NFL, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold isn’t exactly immobile, but he’s coming off a knee injury that could limit his ability to escape.

The Packers’ edge defenders will face a strong test against Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill. Darrisaw is a Pro Bowl-caliber blind-side protector. PFF charged him with one sack each of the last two weeks, but the Niners’ Nick Bosa and the Texans’ Will Anderson are cream-of-the-crop pass rushers. O’Neill hasn’t allowed a sack or quarterback hit this season, according to PFF.

Where the Packers would seem to have a big advantage is up the middle against the Vikings’ interior blockers. While left guard Blake Brandel has allowed only one pressure, center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram are vulnerable. Bradbury and Ingram had dismal days during Green Bay’s blowout win in Week 17 last season.

The play of Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, Karl Brooks and TJ Slaton will be critical. Wyatt had a couple sacks last week and Clark had seven pressures the first two weeks.

“The TFLs, the movement, the speed, the athleticism, the get-off, the penetration – he makes it hard for the O-line. Really hard,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said of Wyatt. “I think the combination of all those different bodies we have in the middle, you got some really big guys and then you’ve got some quick guys, and he’s kind of a combination of both.

“I’m a big fan of him. He works, he’s a fun guy to be around and I hope, and if I had to bet, you’re going to see improvement each week from him.”

2. Josh Jacobs Will Give Vikings First Challenge

What the Vikings have accomplished on defense to start this season has been remarkable.

In three games, they’ve allowed a total of 30 points and three touchdowns. With Brock Purdy throwing to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, the 49ers were limited to 17 points in Week 2. With C.J. Stroud throwing to Stephon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, the Texans managed only seven points in Week 3.

With left tackle Trent Williams coming off three consecutive All-Pro seasons, Purdy was sacked six times. With Laramy Tunsil winning Pro Bowl honors at left tackle four of the last five years, Stroud was sacked four times.  

Those were dominant defensive performances against two of the best offenses in the league.

The Vikings enter the game ranked second in points allowed, third in yards allowed per carry, fifth in sack percentage, fifth in interception percentage and in the top 10 in third down, fourth down, red zone and goal-to-go.

However, the Vikings haven’t faced a real dude in the backfield. The 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey is on injured reserve and the Texans’ Joe Mixon was inactive.

The Packers have that stud running back in Josh Jacobs. Green Bay is No. 1 in the NFL in rushing. Obviously, the circumstances skew that top-ranked production, but Jacobs is one of the NFL’s best and Emanuel Wilson has provided an effective counterpuncher.

“I think we want to play physical. I think that's a big part of stopping a run,” Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores said. “I think the Packers want to play physical. That's a big part of running the ball. That's probably what this is going to be. If I'm predicting a forecast, that's probably what I think this is going to be.”

If Jacobs and Wilson can keep the Packers in advantageous down-and-distance situations, it would be a huge lift to a limited Jordan Love or backup Malik Willis in avoiding Minnesota’s pass rush and Flores’ pressure packages.

3. Big Advantage for Receivers

Green Bay’s strongest position is its receiver corps. With Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks leading the way, the Packers have too many quality receivers for secondaries to handle. Then, throw in the production of Tucker Kraft and the potential of Luke Musgrave, Green Bay has a lot of options for Love or Willis.

Minnesota’s secondary is good but not great. The Vikings have a six-man rotation of Stephon Gilmore, Shaquill Griffin and Byron Murphy as cornerbacks and Harrison Smith, Josh Metellus and Camryn Bynum as the safeties. Of the six, Griffin plays the least and even he’s averaging 40 snaps per game. Metellus and Murphy man the slot.

The 35-year-old Smith, who has 19 tackles and three passes defensed, is an ageless wonder. “He is a problem,” as coach Matt LaFleur said.

The 34-year-old Gilmore is vulnerable – Love went after him in the playoffs last year against Dallas, when Wicks beat him for a touchdown. So is Murphy, a second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2019 who has given up a 117.4 passer rating, according to PFF’s judgment of coverage responsibilities.

Love torched the Vikings in Minneapolis last year. That was different personnel and circumstances, obviously, but he’s seen Flores’ scheme and lived to tell the tale. Through three games, Jayden Reed has caught 10-of-14 passes for 197 yards and one touchdown, Romeo Doubs has caught 8-of-11 passes for 130 yards and Christian Watson has caught 5-of-7 passes for 80 yards and one touchdown. Those are passer ratings of 137.5, 111.9 and 148.8, respectively.

Kraft said the Packers found the “recipe” to handling Flores’ defense in that late-season matchup.

“What happens when they’re blitzing, when they’re sending five, sending six, you leave holes in your defense,” Kraft said. “We took advantage of those. There were guys open. We had a pretty complete game. We were able to take our starters off the field in the fourth quarter. That was a New Year’s Eve game, so it was great to be able to get some reps off our bodies.

“The key to that was finding the voids. If they’re going to blitz us, which guys are blitzing, who has them backed up in coverage and where can we find the holes in their defense?”

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In 2015 with the Browns, #Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell lived across the street from each other.

They'll be on opposite sides of the field on Sunday. ⬇️https://t.co/hajhGBtrh8

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 27, 2024

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