Vikings at Packers: Three Reasons to Worry

It will be a huge early-season showdown for the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose, regardless of who’s playing quarterback.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (or Malik Willis) will face a potent Vikings pass rush on Sunday. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Sure, it’s only September, but the Green Bay Packers will play a huge game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field. Win, and they’ll have no worse than the second-best record in the NFC. Lose, and they’ll be two games off the pace in the NFC North.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose, regardless of whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback.

1. Can’t Stop Aaron Jones

The Packers have struggled to stop the run for years, though perhaps last week’s victory over Tennessee was a breakthrough. Tony Pollard, who is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Dallas, was limited to 14 yards on six carries. On eight carries by Titans running backs, the long gain allowed was 6 yards.

It’ll be a much bigger challenge against Aaron Jones, who will be returning to the stadium he called home the previous seven seasons.

“He runs with violence,” said defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, whose unit ranks 26th with 4.73 yards allowed per carry. “He’s got this burst to him that he just wants to run through people, and he’s fast. He can bounce it and hit it, and he’s got a great stiff arm. He’s an explosive player. And he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He’s good in the screen game, they empty him out, they release him through the backfield.

“He’s a complete player. We’ve got to do everything we can to play great defense against him.”

It’s been vintage Jones through three games. Of the 36 running backs with at least 25 carries, Jones is ninth in rushing yards (228), fourth in average (5.4), first in yards after contact (4.02 per rush) and seventh in forced missed tackles (11), according to Pro Football Focus. Plus, he’s fourth in yards per pass route (2.11).

“We’ve got to do a good job of getting 11 hats to the ball,” defensive tackle Kenny Clark said. “He has great vision. He’s going to do a good job at finding creases within the defense. We got to make sure we’re gap sound and tackle him at the point of attack.”

Jones is one of the best players in Packers history. In NFL history among running backs with at least 600 carries, Jones ranks eighth all-time in yards per carry.

Jones has a lot of love for Green Bay. This game won’t be about revenge but, of course, Jones is a prideful man and he’d love to show general manager Brian Gutekunst that he made a mistake in releasing him to sign Josh Jacobs at the start of free agency.

Jones is a big-time player any day of the week. But with a chip on his shoulder, as well?

“I understand it's a business,” Jones said this week. “I have a lot of respect for the people there and the relationships that I've made there. There's nothing but love. … At some point, you've got to make business decisions. It may be a hard decision, but you've got to make a decision and live with it.”

2. Vikings Pass Rush

The Packers are going to have to run the football successfully. If not, it might be a long, painful day.

Minnesota has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Vikings have an NFL-high 16 sacks, with at least five in all three games. Jonathan Greenard and Patrick Jones have four apiece, and former Wisconsin standout Andrew Van Ginkel has three. First-round pick Dallas Turner has one sack.

Veteran safety Harrison Smith has 19.5 career sacks. Josh Metellus, who last year had 2.5 sacks and led all NFL defensive backs with 10 quarterback hits, blitzes frequently from the slot.

As far as September games go, Sunday's #Packers-#Vikings showdown is about as big as it gets, especially from Green Bay's perspective.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will win (with the other side of this story coming later). ⬇️https://t.co/aiJ0zx2Lgz

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 28, 2024

If Jordan Love starts, his mobility probably will be curtailed by the knee injury sustained three weeks ago against Philadelphia.

Malik Willis is healthy and is more mobile than Love, but he doesn’t have the same foundation in the offense to find checkdowns. Of 35 quarterbacks with at least 30 passing attempts, Willis has the eighth-highest sack percentage (10.53), according to Stathead, while Love is 34th (2.86 percent).

“No matter what team you’re talking about, that’s always the goal is to get the ball out of your hands as fast as possible,” Love said this week. “Anytime you’re holding the ball or sitting in the pocket, those guys are really good on the other side (and) they’re going to find a way to get home.

“So, it’s always trying to get the ball out of my hands as quick as possible. We’ll do some good things protection-wise to be able to stop that but, at the end of the day, they’re a good defense, they’ve got really good rushers and (Vikings defensive coordinator Brian) Flores does a really good job of sending a lot of pressures and exotic defenses, so we’ve just got to be locked in to be able to pick some of that stuff up. But, at the end of the day, it’s football and there’s always a risk of getting sacked or hit.”

3. Situational Mismatches

One reason why the Vikings are 3-0 is their situational dominance.

On third down, Minnesota’s offense is third (45.7 percent conversions) while Green Bay’s defense is an excellent sixth (28.1 percent).

In the red zone, Minnesota’s offense is seventh (70.0 percent touchdowns) while Green Bay’s defense is 21st (60.0 percent).

On third down, Minnesota’s defense is 10th (31.0 percent conversions) while Green Bay’s offense is eighth (42.8 percent).

In the red zone, Minnesota’s defense is seventh (33.3 percent touchdowns) while Green Bay’s offense is 29th (30.0 percent).

The Vikings are the only team in the top 10 in all four categories.

Why has Minnesota’s defense been so good in the red zone?

“I think they’re challenging everywhere, not only in the red zone,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They play very aggressive. They do a good job of giving you similar looks and playing different things out of them. Harrison Smith’s been a problem for everybody. I don’t even know what year he’s in now, but it seems like he’s been playing forever. He’s a really intelligent football player and can play games with you at the line of scrimmage.

“He is a problem, but it’s not just him. No. 1, the scheme is really challenging. I think Brian Flores does a hell of a job of putting his guys in position but, ultimately, you can’t do that unless those guys can take that and apply it to the field. And you can tell they went out and got some veteran help that’s really put them in a better position. You can just tell that it’s a highly intelligent defense.”

Green Bay’s red-zone offense has been terrible, going 1-for-4 against the Eagles, 1-for-3 against the Colts and 1-for-3 against the Titans. That might be good enough to beat the likes of Indianapolis and Tennessee, but it probably will lead to defeat against a good opponent like the Vikings this week, the Rams next week and the Texans a couple weeks later.

“I think lack of execution,” LaFleur said. “A lot of the teams that are most successful in the red area, first of all, they do a really good job of running the football. And we’ve had way too many penalties when we’ve gotten down there, and it’s knocked us backwards.

“And it’s hard when you get in that tight area, if you’re going backwards, you’re putting yourself behind the sticks and more reliant on the passing game, and then, ultimately, you’re not going to be as successful.”

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The stage is set for a clash between two of the NFL's best.
Right...? https://t.co/hZCaqPnzYo

— Jacob Westendorf (@JacobWestendorf) September 27, 2024

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