Packer Central

Updated Packers Playoff Probabilities, NFC Standings

Back from their bye and with the second half of the season starting on Sunday at the Bears, here is a look at the Green Bay Packers’ playoff picture.

Bill Huber

The Green Bay Packers are in a strong position to qualify for the NFL playoffs.
The Green Bay Packers are in a strong position to qualify for the NFL playoffs. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – With a 6-3 record and a one-game lead in the NFC playoff chase, you’d think the Green Bay Packers would have a strong probability of reaching the NFL postseason.

You’d be right.

According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Packers have a 73 percent chance of reaching the playoffs entering Week 11. If they can beat the Chicago Bears for an 11th consecutive time on Sunday, that would improve to 80 percent. If the Bears can snap their three-game losing streak, that would fall to 57 percent.

The Packers lead the San Francisco 49ers by one game in the race for the final spot in the NFC.

San Francisco has a 55 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. If it wins at home against slumping Seattle, that would improve to 64 percent. If it loses, it would plunge to 35 percent.

The math is similar at The New York Times.

The Packers have a 77 percent chance of reaching the playoffs entering Week 11. Running the simulation more than 242,000 times, a victory over Chicago would improve Green Bay’s playoff chances to 83 percent. With a loss, that would decrease to 62 percent.

Having lost their first “biggest game of the season” against the Detroit Lions before the bye, the Packers’ next “biggest game of the season” could be next week’s home game against the 49ers.

Based on 267,000 simulations, if the Packers can beat the Bears and 49ers the next two weeks, their playoff probability would soar to 94 percent.

On the other hand, if the Packers beat the Bears and the 49ers beat the Seahawks and then the 49ers beat the Packers, Green Bay’s playoff probability would fall to 68 percent – a surprisingly solid number considering the head-to-head tiebreaker.

At The Washington Post, the Packers have a 72 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

At Playoff Status, the Packers’ playoff chances are 76 percent.

At ESPN, Green Bay has an 80 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

At sportsbooks such as FanDuel, the Packers are heavy favorites to reach the postseason. Green Bay is -300, meaning an implied probability of 75.0 percent.

Working in the Packers’ favor is their strong record and the upside on offense if it can eliminate some of their self-inflicted problems.

Working against them is the strength of the division, their two home losses in those division games and their 2-3 record in conference games – a key tiebreaker.

“This division this year, especially, has been good,” running back Josh Jacobs said on Monday. “I mean, you’ve got four solid teams, teams that probably shouldn’t have even lost some of the games that they did lose, but you’ve got guys that can ball offensively and defensively and special teams – really all phases.

“The thing for us that we’re trying to do to come in and separate ourself is be who we are, play a little longer than the next person and like I said, be on all the details.”

Latest NFC Playoff Standings

Here are the latest NFC playoff standings with their playoff probability via the NFL:

1. Detroit Lions: 8-1 (99 percent)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 7-2 (93 percent)

3. Atlanta Falcons: 6-4 (80 percent)

4. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4 (58 percent)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 7-2 (92 percent)

6. Washington Commanders: 7-3 (85 percent)

7. Green Bay Packers: 6-3 (73 percent)

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8. San Francisco 49ers: 5-4 (55 percent)

9. Chicago Bears: 4-5 (2 percent)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 4-5 (11 percent)

11. Seattle Seahawks: 4-5 (11 percent)

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6 (36 percent)

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

Packers-Bears: TV, history, betting, notes | Packers-Bears matchups | No easy solutions on offense | Bears change offensive coordinator | Packers On SI Consensus Power Rankings | MarShawn Lloyd returning; tough choices in backfield | Rashan Gary, others react to Preston Smith trade | 

Best From Bye Week

Three issues that must be solved | Midseason report card: Coaching and personnel | Midseason report card: Defense | Midseason report card: Offense | ESPN solves biggest weakness | Predicting every game on rest of Packers’ schedule | How good are Packers after the bye? | Packers midseason awards | Where’s the pass rush?

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.