Packers Mock Draft 11.0: When Everything Goes Wrong

Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst no doubt has a game plan to handle the 2024 NFL Draft. What if, through circumstances not in his control, that plan goes off the rails?

Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

‘Twas the night before Draftmas.

That’s right. The 2024 NFL Draft is almost here.

Most of these mock drafts deal with what the Packers could do, and finding ideal scenarios for who they could pick and in what round.

The draft, however, is not an exact science. Just because simulators go a certain way does not mean that everything will go according to plan.

A great example was the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Packers were searching for another receiver to pair with Davante Adams. That receiver class was loaded with star potential, including Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk. Both players went before the Packers were on the clock, so they traded up to take Jordan Love.

The second round worked similarly. The Packers were working to get back up to take a receiver but all the pass-catchers they liked were gone before they picked again, so they settled on running back AJ Dillon.

This mock draft is an exercise of what happens if everything does not go according to plan, and how general manager Brian Gutekunst could adjust on the fly.

There is some help given here with the Pro Football Focus simulator.

First Round: Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota

This is not a knock on Nubin. His film makes him look like a potential impact player. His athletic testing, however, falls well below what the Packers have typically preferred, especially with players they’ve taken in the first round.

In this scenario, all of the top offensive linemen were off the board, as were Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean, Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.

The Packers need another safety, and Nubin’s skill-set could fit alongside Xavier McKinney’s nicely. The question is how satisfied would Gutekunst be adding a non-premium athlete playing a non-premium position to the defense in a safety class that is considered poor?

If the options presented this way, he’d likely be looking at a trade back, but it takes two to tango.

Second Round: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

After grabbing a safety in the first round, the hope here would be to find an offensive lineman worth taking in this spot. Unfortunately, Duke’s Graham Barton and all the early-round linemen were picked before the Packers were on the clock.

That makes Florida State’s Keon Coleman a luxury pick in the second round. Coleman is not a bad player. He’s a contested-catch specialist, which is something the Packers do not really have.

If the Packers were to add a receiver, they’d likely want to add someone to help with their YAC-related issues from a season ago. Coleman averaged a solid 6.3 yards after the catch in 2023.

Coleman is a talented receiver, and in the modern NFL, where offense is king, a team can never have too many weapons.

Second Round: Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky

In the moment, this might be viewed as a panic pick, and admittedly with this type of exercise, it kind of was.

Cooper was gone, as were Michigan’s Junior Colson and NC State’s Payton Wilson. With a De’Vondre Campbell-sized hole at linebacker, this would be the case of Gutekunst trying to find someone to fill the hole he created. Wallace had a predraft visit with the Packers and has been rising up media draft boards recently, but he might be a little too repetitive with Quay Walker’s skill-set.

This could be another case where the Packers are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by playing Wallace or Walker at middle linebacker when both are better suited to play on the weak side.

Third Round: Mason McCormick, G, South Dakota State

McCormick does not have the positional versatility the Packers have typically liked along their interior. All 57 starts in his college career came at left guard. It’s unlikely he’d be able to play tackle, even in a pinch, once he gets to the NFL, and he’d have to learn the ropes at center, too.

That said, TCU’s Brandon Coleman and Wisconsin’s Tanor Bortolini were gone, so the Packers, in an attempt to add some depth to their offensive line, add the FCS All-American. McCormick would provide competition for Sean Rhyan at right guard while being a potential successor to Josh Myers at center if he were able to learn the position.

The downside here is the Packers have yet to find someone who can play tackle, where they likely want to add a young player to help push Andre Dillard for the swing role.

Third Round: Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State

Sinnott is probably seen as another luxury pick with Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in house and having bright futures.

Sinnott, however, is a good player. He could feasibly fit a role that Josiah Deguara left open upon signing in Jacksonville.

Maybe the H-back position isn’t considered particularly valuable, but this Packers regime thought enough of that role to select Deguara in the third round four years ago.

Deguara never became the Packers’ version of Kyle Juszczyk, as was envisioned. Sinnott could be that and more as he has much more athleticism than Deguara, which makes him more of a threat in the passing game.

Again in this case, the offensive line group was mostly picked over, as were the secondary pieces, so coach Matt LaFleur gets another weapon to add to his offense.

Fourth Round: Braelon Allen, RB, Wisconsin

The Packers have made hay on Day 3 of the draft, particularly with their running back group. Aaron Jones became a star as a fifth-round pick in 2017. Jamaal Williams was a useful player who was picked in the fourth round in the same draft.

Allen would be a familiar name to the fan base and a potential replacement to Dillon. Dillon returned on a one-year contract and his spot on the roster going into 2024 is not guaranteed. Even if Dillon does make the team, both he and Josh Jacobs could be short-term solutions at running back.

The Packers in a perfect world likely want to add someone with more speed and pass-catching ability than Allen displayed at Wisconsin.

Oregon’s Bucky Irvin is smaller and less athletic than what the Packers have typically preferred, so he was not considered. Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright and Florida State’s Trey Benson were off the board in the third round, making us look to Allen as the potential long-term addition to the backfield.

If Allen can cure his fumbling issues from college and learn to better use his size, he could be a long-term fixture in Green Bay, even if his initial fit with the team is a little repetitive.

Conclusion

Overall, this draft class does add some good players at positions the Packers have as secondary needs.

Nubin would be an instant starter next to Xavier McKinney. Coleman would be a fun addition to the offense, as would Sinnott and Allen.

Unfortunately, the Packers were not able to add a high-end linebacker or offensive tackle. They’d almost assuredly be looking to add at both positions before the end of the weekend.

The perfect scenario, however, does not always present itself, and as Gutekunst told reporters on Monday, teams need to be prepared to adjust on the fly.

The Packers did so in this case, but still left the first four rounds of the draft with some major question marks. 

Florida State Seminoles receiver Keon Coleman / Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

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