Packer Central

What Does Saints Game Mean for Packers’ Playoff Prospects?

The Green Bay Packers almost certainly are going to reach the playoffs, but their game against the New Orleans Saints is critically important.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is pressured by New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis in 2023.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is pressured by New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis in 2023. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers’ Monday night home game against the New Orleans Saints will be vital to their playoff prospects.

If the Packers beat the Saints, as expected, they will clinch a playoff berth.

Of course, with their 10-4 record, the postseason is practically a formality.

Here’s why a victory over the Saints would be hugely important.

The Washington Commanders improved to 10-5 with their upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion on the second possession and the Commanders capped a big fourth-quarter comeback with Jayden Daniels’ touchdown pass to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds remaining.

If the Packers take care of business, they would improve to 11-4 and remain one game ahead of the Commanders in the race for the sixth seed. If the Packers lose, both teams would be 10-5. Green Bay would lose the tiebreaker based on conference record; the Commanders are 7-3 against NFC foes while Green Bay is 5-4.

“I feel like you have to have the same mindset, regardless, like from last year,” tight end Tucker Kraft said. “It might be win-and-in, but we can’t just think about winning this game. We have to continue to keep our foot on the pedal, try to bury teams as best we can. Play with aggression, play with our play-style, snap in and snap out, and carry that through the next few games.”

Latest Packers Playoff Probabilities

While eliminated from the NFC North race, Green Bay has a greater than 99 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, according to The New York Times. Even if it gets swept by New Orleans, Minnesota and Chicago, it has an 87 percent probability of earning a wild-card spot.

So, let’s look deeper.

According to Playoff Status, the Packers have a 21 percent chance to be the fifth seed, 46 percent to be the sixth seed and 32 percent to be the seventh seed. Washington has no chance to be the fifth seed, 32 percent to be the sixth seed and 55 percent to be the seventh seed.

“Definitely a different situation” than last year, quarterback Jordan Love said. “Obviously, still got to win. We talk about it all the time – take it one week at a time – but definitely is a better position than having to try and win every game and fighting for that last position and not knowing what might happen.

“I think we did a better job this season winning some games early on and putting ourselves in a better position. But we’ve still got to go finish the season off the right way and take it one week at a time and set ourselves up to be in a good place when the playoffs do get going.”

Why It Matters

The No. 1 seed – the Detroit Lions at the moment – gets the first-round bye and homefield advantage.

The No. 7 seed will play at the No. 2 seed. The Eagles are the No. 2; they had won 10 in a row before Hurts was injured early in their last-second loss to the Commanders. Philadelphia is an elite team.

The No. 6 seed, on the other hand, will play at the No. 3 seed. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting upset at the Dallas Cowboys, the Los Angeles Rams moved into the third spot. The Packers beat the Rams earlier in the season, though Los Angeles was without star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

The lowest remaining seed after wild-card weekend will play at the No. 1 seed. So, the No. 7 seed would face the daunting prospects of having to win at No. 2 in the wild-card round and the No. 1 in the divisional round.

NFC Playoff Standings

Top Seven Qualify

1.. Detroit Lions: 13-2 (first place, NFC North)

at San Francisco 49ers, home vs. Minnesota Vikings

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 12-3 (first place, NFC East)

home vs. Dallas Cowboys, home vs. New York Giants

3. Los Angeles Rams: 9-6 (first place, NFC West)

home vs. Arizona Cardinals, home vs. Seattle Seahawks

4. Atlanta Falcons: 8-7 (second place, NFC South)

at Washington Commanders, home vs. Carolina Panthers

5. Minnesota Vikings: 13-2 (second place, NFC North)

home vs. Green Bay Packers, at Detroit Lions

6. Green Bay Packers: 10-4 (third place, NFC North)

home vs. New Orleans Saints (Monday night), at Minnesota Vikings, home vs. Chicago Bears

7. Washington Commanders: 10-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

home vs. Atlanta Falcons, at Dallas Cowboys

In Contention

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-7 (first place, NFC South)

home vs. Carolina Panthers, home vs. New Orleans Saints

9. Seattle Seahawks: 8-7 (second place, NFC West)

at Chicago Bears, at Los Angeles Rams

Eliminated

10. Dallas Cowboys: 7-8 (third place, NFC East)

11. Arizona Cardinals: 7-8 (third place, NFC West)

12. San Francisco 49ers: 6-9 (last place, NFC West)

13. New Orleans Saints: 5-9 (third place, NFC South)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-11 (last place, NFC North)

15. Carolina Panthers: 4-11 (last place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-13 (last place, NFC East)

What’s Next?

The Packers will play at the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday and host the Chicago Bears in the finale.

Including Sunday’s 27-24 win at Seattle, Minnesota has won eight in a row and will be the No. 1 seed if it can beat Green Bay and Detroit to close the regular season. Chicago has lost nine in a row, with all three by 17-plus points since firing coach Matt Eberflus.

With Green Bay coming off a Monday night game and the Vikings a Sunday afternoon game, the Packers will be at a significant rest disadvantage for their annual trek to Minneapolis.

In a perfect world, the Packers will take care of business on Monday night to be as fresh as possible on a short week.

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.