Will Packers Make NFL Playoffs? Here’s What 49ers Game Means

The Green Bay Packers will host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Here’s what that game means for the Packers in the NFC playoff race.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) scores a touchdown during the third quarter of the playoff loss at the 49ers. / Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – For the Green Bay Packers, Sunday’s game against the San Francisco 49ers is a big game.

Then again, now that we’re deep into November, every game is a big game.

The Packers are 7-3 and in great shape in the NFC playoff race with a two-game lead over the 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks – the three teams chasing the NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals – with seven games remaining.

Beating the 49ers would maintain that margin and deal a huge blow to a longtime playoff nemesis. The 49ers have bounced Matt LaFleur’s Packers from the playoffs three times in five years. Going back further, they are 5-0 in playoff games against Green Bay over the last dozen years.

With San Francisco having advanced to at least the NFC Championship Game four of the last five seasons, the rest of the league might be cheering for the Packers to perhaps put a stake through the Niners’ hearts.

Here is the latest from the playoff picture.

Packers Playoff Probabilities

The computers love the Packers. Based on their relatively large lead in the playoff chase with seven games to go:

- The Packers have a 79 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to NFL.com. With a win, that would rise to 90 percent. With a loss, that would fall to 66 percent.

- The Packers have an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The New York Times. With a win, that would rise to 93 percent. With a loss, that would fall to 72 percent.

- The Packers have an 88 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN.

- The Packers have an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Playoff Status.

- The Packers have an 81.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CBS. They’d be “barely hanging on,” though, with a loss to the 49ers.

NFC Playoff Bracket

Here are the main characters in the NFC playoff standings:

1. Detroit Lions: 9-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4 (first place, NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 8-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 7-3 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 7-4 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Los Angeles Rams: 5-5 (second place, NFC West)

9. Seattle Seahawks: 5-5 (third place, NFC West)

10. San Francisco 49ers: 5-5 (fourth place, NFC West)

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6 (second place, NFC South)

The No. 1 seed gets the only bye; in the wild-card round, it’s No. 7 at No. 2, No. 6 at No. 3 and No. 5 at No. 4.

The Packers enter Week 12 in command of the No. 6 seed. The difference between No. 6 and No. 7 can’t be overstated.

As the No. 6 seed, the Packers would play a wild-card game at the No. 3 Cardinals. The Cardinals are 6-4 and have won four in a row, though the Packers handled them earlier this season.

The No. 7 team would play an opening-round game at the No. 2 Eagles. The Eagles are 8-2 and playing as well as any team in the NFL with a six-game winning streak. They beat Green Bay in Week 1.

Moreover, the worst of the winning teams following wild-card weekend would play at the No. 1 Lions in the divisional round. If the Packers were to win as the No. 7 seed, they’d be guaranteed a trip to Detroit. If the Packers were to win as the No. 6 seed, there’s at least a chance they’d avoid the Lions until a potential NFC Championship Game.  

There’s a lot of season left, including the Packers visiting the Vikings in Week 17. That means the No. 5 seed is in play, with Minnesota holding a one-game lead over Green Bay. As it stands, No. 5 would play at the No. 4 Falcons, who are 6-4 with two consecutive bad losses to the Saints and Broncos.

For Green Bay, the only thing that matters is playing better. The Packers are 7-3 without really hitting their stride. If they can play with increased efficiency and consistency, they are capable of making an extended playoff run, regardless of their seed.

“I don’t think anybody was filled with a bunch of joy,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said a day after his team escaped Chicago with a 20-19 win over the Bears. “We knew that was going to be a grinder of a game. I think that’s a good football team. When you look at it, those two plays right there [including the Hail Mary loss at Washington], they could easily be a 6-4 team, and there’s been plays in other games where maybe they’re even better than that.

“But that is this league. You’ve just got to find a way to get it done. I think that’s our third game where we’ve won with no time left on the clock.”

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The #Packers' defense played poorly on Sunday against the Bears. What's worse?⬇️https://t.co/LLMOr0VCP1

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 20, 2024

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