Packer Central

Where Do Packers Rank in NFL.com’s Super Bowl Poll?

NFL.com enlisted its fleet of analysts to pick a winner for Super Bowl LIX. The Kansas City Chiefs are the overwhelming favorite. How about the Green Bay Packers?

Bill Huber

Can Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur lead the Packers back to Super Bowl glory in 2024?
Can Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur lead the Packers back to Super Bowl glory in 2024? / Mark Hoffman?Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – NFL.com gathered its 28 analysts for a series of 2024 NFL season projections.

Who will Super Bowl LIX? And why might it be the Green Bay Packers?

The Kansas City Chiefs were picked to three-peat by nine analysts. Three of those analysts predicted the Chiefs would beat the Packers. In a neat historical twist, the last team to three-peat was Vince Lombardi’s Glory Years Packers, who beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl I.

Five picked the San Francisco 49ers to get over the hump. Among those is former 49ers head coach and Packers assistant coach Steve Mariucci, who picked the Niners to finally get past the Chiefs.

“Meeting in this game for the third time in the last six seasons, the 49ers finally get it done by leaning on their veterans and executing in all three phases,” he wrote. “A more experienced Brock Purdy shows poise and sets himself up for a big payday when he leads the Niners to the mountaintop for the first time in three decades.”

The Packers finished third in the Super Bowl poll, with analysts Michael Baca, Jeremy Bergman and Kevin Patra predicting an end to Green Bay’s championship drought.

Bergman picked Jordan Love to beat Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.

Patra went with Love to topple the Houston Texans.

“It took Brett Favre five years as the starter in Green Bay to win a Super Bowl ring,” Patra wrote. “Three for Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love bests both legends, lifting the Lombardi Trophy in his second year at the helm as he outduels C.J. Stroud in a Super Bowl shootout.”

The Baltimore Ravens are fourth in the poll, with Marc Ross predicting Lamar Jackson “will finally silence his critics” by “holding off a future Super Bowl champion in Jordan Love.”

A total of 11 teams received at least one vote to win this year’s Super Bowl.

In the NFC North, the Detroit Lions received 20 of the 28 first-place votes and the Packers received seven.

In the awards section, nobody picked Love to win NFL MVP. Matt LaFleur tied for fourth for NFL Coach of the Year.

Also at NFL.com, analytics expert Cynthia Frelund put together a model based on the last 12 seasons, then simulated each game 1 million times to create projected win totals for all 32 teams.

The Packers checked in at 9.8 wins, with a floor of 7.3 wins and a ceiling of 11.2 wins.

As she noted, that would be the sportsbook projection – FanDuel Sportsbook’s over/under for Green Bay is 9.5 wins.

“My model’s biggest question for the Packers: How long will it take for the defense to get comfortable in new coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme?” Frelund wrote.

The Packers will kick off the 2024 season on Friday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia’s projection is an NFC-best 11.2 wins.

As we noted, the Eagles have new coordinators on both sides of the ball – highly regarded Kellen Moore on offense and venerable Vic Fangio on defense.

“The changes in structure on offense, as well as at both coordinator positions, have created a really nice balance between continuity of players and new looks/twists to the game plan,” Frelund wrote.

After facing the Eagles, the Packers’ next games show a chance to get off to a strong start.

Week 2: Home against Indianapolis Colts. Frelund: 8.1 wins.

Week 3: at Tennessee Titans. Frelund: 6.2 wins.

Week 4: Home against Minnesota Vikings. Frelund: 7.0 wins.

Week 5: at Los Angeles Rams. Frelund: 8.9 wins.

Week 6: Home against Arizona Cardinals. Frelund: 6.9 wins.

In the NFC North, the Lions’ projection is 10.7 wins – with a wide disparity between floor and ceiling – and the Bears’ projection is 8.6 wins.

More Green Bay Packers News

Malik Willis progress report | Packers-Eagles Monday injury report | Coordinator changes for both teams add to intrigue | 5,000 yards for Love? | Packers-Eagles matchups | Love vs. Eagles, the sequel | New kicker has GOAT goals | Sunday injury report | Grading every position group | Youngest roster again | Packers sign former fourth-round pick | What channel for Packers-Eagles? | Dillon thanks fans | More practice squad additions | Injuries in the backfield | Brayden Narveson likes the pressure (exclusive)

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.