Packer Central

With Lions Limping, Packers Make Move in NFC, Super Bowl Odds

The NFC Championship and Super Bowl odds have been shaken up after the Week 15 results.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass from Jordan Love at Seattle.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass from Jordan Love at Seattle. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – The unstoppable Detroit Lions have been stopped by injuries and the Buffalo Bills, resulting in a significant shakeup in the latest NFC and Super Bowl odds.

From BetMGM, here is the movement among the top NFC teams, including the Packers.

Detroit Lions

NFC Championship – Now: +195. Last week: +130.

Super Bowl – Now: +425. Last week: +260.

Philadelphia Eagles

NFC Championship – Now: +210. Last week: +260.

Super Bowl – Now: +450. Last week: +500.

Green Bay Packers

NFC Championship – Now: +650. Last week: +900.

Super Bowl – Now: +1300. Last week: +2000.

Minnesota Vikings

NFC Championship – Now: +650. Last week: +850.

Super Bowl – Now: +1300. Last week: +1800.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC Championship – Now: +1600. Last week: +2200.

Super Bowl – Now: +4000. Last week: +5000.

Los Angeles Rams

NFC Championship – Now: +1700. Last week: +2500.

Super Bowl – Now: +4000. Last week: +6600.

Washington Commanders

NFC Championship – Now: +2500. Last week: +2500.

Super Bowl – Now: +5000. Last week: +6600.

The NFC odds are even more jumbled at FanDuel Sportsbook. Focusing on just the conference championship:

The Lions remain the favorites at +210 (they were +280).

The Eagles at +240 (they were +280).

The Packers and Vikings at +600 (they were +800).

If you’re not a betting person, what does any of that mean?

By implied probability and using FanDuel’s odds, the Lions have a 32.3 percent chance of winning the NFC, with the Eagles at 29.4 percent and the Packers and Vikings at 14.3 percent.

The model at Pro Football Network shows the Packers have a 23.3 percent chance of advancing to the NFC Championship Game, an 18.2 percent chance of winning the NFC title and an 11.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

At PFN, the odds to reach the NFC Championship Game are Detroit at 38.3 percent, followed by the Eagles at 23.5 percent, the Packers at 23.3 percent and the Vikings at 22.8 percent. So, suddenly, it seems like a wide-open race as Detroit’s abundance of injuries – running back David Montgomery the latest – might be too much to overcome.

The Packers are coming off a 30-13 blowout of the Seattle Seahawks, one of the team’s more impressive victories of the season.

They will return home and face the New Orleans Saints on Monday night. With Saints quarterback Derek Carr not expected to play, the Packers are 13.5-point favorites at FanDuel  with a total of 42.5.

The Packers have not been a bigger favorite in a game over the last decade; they were 13.5-point favorites against the Jaguars in 2020, Lions in 2021 and Cardinals in 2018.

During the brief Jordan Love era, Green Bay’s largest favorite status was six points in last year’s loss at the Giants. 

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.