Without Love, Odds Will Be Stacked Against Jacobs

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs never had it as easy as he did against the Eagles in Week 1. On Sunday, he’ll probably face a familiar challenge against the Colts.

With a block by Dontayvion Wicks, Packers RB Josh Jacobs gets into the open field against the Eagles. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – One reason why running back Josh Jacobs signed with the Green Bay Packers in free agency was to play alongside a top quarterback.

The Las Vegas Raiders didn’t have a top quarterback last season. They didn’t even have a mediocre quarterback.

Jacobs paid the price.

According to league data, Jacobs ran into a loaded box – defined as eight men in the box – 21.5 percent of the time last season. Of 48 players with at least 100 carries, that was the 16th-highest rate.

Against the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday night, Jacobs carried 16 times. With Jordan Love at quarterback and surrounded by a fleet of capable receivers, Jacobs ran into a loaded box just once.

After a dismal first half in which he carried six times for 4 yards and was stuffed on a 2-point run, Jacobs got cooking in the second half. His 10 carries for 80 yards included a run of 22 yards in the third quarter, a run of 32 yards in the fourth quarter and a total of six runs of at least 4 yards.

Now, with Love injured, the odds will be stacked against Jacobs.

Pun intended.

There’s little doubt the Colts will defend a Malik Willis-led offense much differently than they would have defended a Love-led attack. The Colts figure to load the box to stop Jacobs and put the ball in the hands of the quarterback who’s been in Green Bay for less than three weeks.

Thus, here’s the must-win matchup: An offense that must run the ball this week vs. a defense that couldn’t stop the run last week. The Colts allowed a league-worst 213 rushing yards in their Week 1 loss to the Houston Texans.

“Last week, a little bit was almost a mentality of defend the run on the way to the quarterback,” Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley told reporters on Tuesday. “It was a little bit of that mentality just because we knew we had to affect [Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud] so much. This week, you’ve still got to affect the quarterback we’ve got to get back [to stopping the run].

“We know that we can defend the run when we do things properly. We missed some tackles in the last quarter that need to be made. So, we’ve got to do a better job of tackling, better job of edge setting. We were with Josh (Jacobs) in Vegas and he's a really, really talented back and runs the outside zone and inside zone very well. They're a committed run team. They want to run the ball and have play-action off of it. We’ve got to be at our best in terms of run game and we’ve got to get this corrected, and we will.”

Not that a stacked box guarantees defensive success or running back failure.

NFL rushing leader Joe Mixon ran into a stacked box 26.7 percent of the time last week, the 11th-highest rate of the 48 players with at least seven carries in Week 1. Still, the Colts allowed almost 30 more rushing yards than any other team. They are 28th with 5.33 yards allowed per carry. 

For coaches, you tend to get what you emphasize. There’s no doubt the Colts, after being destroyed by Mixon, will spend the week focusing on their run defense.

“Every game’s a new challenge and I think if you look at Indy, again, another very disruptive front,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “I’m sure they’re going to have a big emphasis on stopping the run after Houston ran the ball 40 times on them, so they’ll be working hard on that. There’s no doubt about it, which presents another challenge.”

The Colts finished 10th with 4.10 yards allowed per carry last season. They should be good against the run with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart as the starting defensive tackles and Zaire Franklin at linebacker.

“Just looking back at it, obviously we’ve got to be better,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said on Monday. “Everyone's got to be better – and we will. I’ve got a ton of faith in those guys. Give Houston credit, they had a good little scheme. They did some good things yesterday. But we'll get those cleaned up. I’ve got no concerns with those guys going forward.”

Running the football, obviously, will be of critical importance on Sunday. The Packers can’t afford to have Willis living in third-and-long the entire game. The key will be cleaning up the early-game blocking miscues from last week and grinding away for additional yards.

“I think we blocked some things a lot better,” LaFleur said of the second-half run game. “I can’t tell you how many times they had linebacker run-throughs that we didn’t block the backer. It’s hard to get going. Early on in the game, they were doing some line movement and I didn’t think we adjusted quick enough. But once we did get our runners going, we blocked their front much better.”

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The Colts are coming to Lambeau on Sunday for the #Packers' home opener.

Here is a dive into the matchups from @JacobWestendorf. ⬇️https://t.co/6dyeyiaJIt

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 11, 2024

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