Inside the Numbers: Panthers at Saints Game Preview
Two games remain in the 2021 season for the Carolina Panthers and with the playoffs no longer in sight, the goal is to finish the year strong with a win or two against a couple of division opponents.
This week, the Panthers look to go for the season sweep of the New Orleans Saints after beating them 26-7 in Week 2 back in September. It's hard to know what to expect when these two clash on Sunday as both will likely be a shell of themselves with a large number of players out due to being on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
With that said, we'll break down this game the best we can with the information we do have. Let's dive in.
When the Panthers have the ball
| Panthers offense | Stats | Saints defense |
|---|---|---|
305.7 (28th) | Total Yards Per Game/Allowed | 331.7 (12th) |
109.6 (19th) | Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 95.9 (5th) |
4.08 (24th) | Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed | 3.71 (1st) |
196.1 (29th) | Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 235.7 (17th) |
43 (T-26th) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 36 (T-13th) |
35.7 (27th) | Third Down Efficiency | 37.0 (7th) |
18.5 (26th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 20.3 (4th) |
The Carolina Panthers want to see what they have in Sam Darnold so they will give him the start this week over the veteran, Cam Newton.
Darnold struggled in the four to five games prior to his shoulder injury but the coaching staff believes he can get back to what he did in the first three weeks of the season when he led the team to a 3-0 record. In fact, Darnold had one of his best games of the year against the Saints, completing 26 of 38 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns.
This time around, the Saints are expected to have their full complement on the defensive side of the ball. In the first matchup, they were without four starters and a handful of depth players. The Panthers also had Christian McCaffrey in that game and as we all know, will not be available for this game as he is out for the season. As good as Ameer Abdullah and Chuba Hubbard have been in spurts this season, it's not going to be the same as having a weapon like McCaffrey out there against this stingy defense.
I would imagine the game plan for the Saints is going to be to drop seven and sometimes eight into coverage to really clog up throwing lanes for Darnold. New Orleans has a strong enough front seven to generate pressure and effect the pocket consistently with a three or four man rush. Meanwhile, Carolina would like to have some resemblance of a running game so that they don't have to rely on Darnold's arm and decision-making to lift them to victory.
When the Saints have the ball
| Saints offense | Stats | Panthers defense |
|---|---|---|
301.9 (31st) | Total Yards Per Game/Allowed | 300.8 (2nd) |
114.9 (15th) | Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 118.5 (21st) |
3.95 (27th) | Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed | 4.17 (9th) |
187.0 (31st) | Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 182.3 (2nd) |
34 (17th) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 36 (T-13th) |
34.0 (30th) | Third Down Efficiency | 37.8 (10th) |
21.1 (T-17th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 23.0 (19th) |
New Orleans was down to its third string quarterback last week, Ian Book, after Taysom Hill was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and was forced to miss Monday night's game against the Dolphins. Hill is expected to be in line for the start this week but from a passing standpoint, it doesn't really change much. Hill is certainly more dangerous with his legs than he is with his arm.
If the Saints have their way, they'll run the ball upwards of 40 times in this game and keep their defense off the field. Alvin Kamara had a grand total of five yards on eight carries in the Week 2 matchup, averaging 0.6 yards per rush. I find it hard to believe that those numbers will be duplicated in the Week 17 rematch. Kamara will be heavily involved and with the Panthers potentially out several starters, he could have a field day.
Speaking of players who may be ruled out, Carolina's pass rush could be non-existent come Sunday. Brian Burns and Haason Reddick, who have combined for 20 sacks on the season, are both on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Their status for the game is not known at this time. Linebacker Shaq Thompson is also one of the names on the list and cornerback Stephon Gilmore could be sidelined as well as he continues to nurse a groin injury. On Wednesday afternoon, head coach Matt Rhule said that it seems unlikely that Gilmore will take the field on Sunday.
Regardless of who is available for the Panthers, defensive coordinator Phil Snow has to make it a point of emphasis to get off the field on third down. The Panthers have struggled on third downs over the last five to six games but had a lot of success earlier in the year. For a team like the Saints, they would love to consistently get into 3rd & 2/3rd & 3 and continue to pound the ball on the ground. Those long, excruciating drives could take a toll on a defense that doesn't have a lot of experience playing snaps together. If Carolina can force punts and create a couple of turnovers, they'll have a chance to pull out a win in The Big Easy.
The Panthers and Saints are set to kick off on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST.
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