Inside the Numbers: Panthers vs Falcons Game Preview

Breaking down this week's matchup between the Panthers and Falcons.

The Carolina Panthers (5-7) are fresh off of their much-needed bye week and are set to return to action on Sunday to play host to the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) inside Bank of America Stadium. 

What will happen when these two NFC South division rivals clash on Sunday? Let's take a look.

When the Panthers have the ball

Panthers offense	Stats	Falcons defense
308.7 (29th)	Total Yards Per Game/Allowed	367.1 (25th)
111.3 (16th)	Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed	119.3 (22nd)
4.01 (24th)	Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed	4.23 (15th)
197.4 (29th)	Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed	247.8 (18th)
31 (T-21st)	Sacks Allowed/Sacks	15 (32nd)
34.8 (28th)	Third Down Efficiency	48.3 (30th)
19.7 (24th)	Points Per Game/Allowed	27.7 (31st)

After losing seven of the last nine games, head coach Matt Rhule decided to go in a different direction offensively, parting ways with offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Running backs coach and senior offensive assistant, Jeff Nixon, will assume the coordinating duties for the remainder of the 2021 season. Nixon and Rhule's relationship dates all the way back to high school when the two were teammates at State College Area High School in Pennsylvania. When Rhule was named the head coach at Baylor, Rhule hired Nixon to be his offensive play-caller. So when the opportunity arose, it was a no-brainer who he would turn to for the final five games.

"He's going to play to the guys' strengths. He's disciplined, he's not emotional," Rhule said of Nixon. "That's one of the things I like most about Jeff is that he's even-keeled. He doesn't really get too high or too low. The biggest thing I want to see from him in addition to the staff is our ability to adjust when people do something different. We've only scored 18 points on the whole year [coming out of the half/third quarter], another seven on a punt block. I'd like to see us be a team that adjusts as the game goes on and reacts to how people are playing us."

One of the main reasons Joe Brady was canned came from the unwillingness to run the football. That's something that Nixon should have no problem doing. "He has some old school in him. You know, run the football - he knows the importance of it obviously, he's a running back coach," Panthers DC Phil Snow said. "Joe's comes from a more passing background and [Jeff] Nixon's more running."

In the Panthers 19-13 win over the Falcons in late October, Carolina rushed the ball 47 times for 203 yards. Keep in mind this was before Christian McCaffrey's return. Ameer Abdullah provided a jolt to the offense that day totaling 66 all-purpose yards on eleven touches. With McCaffrey sidelined for the rest of the year, you can expect new play-caller Jeff Nixon to lean on Abdullah and rookie Chuba Hubbard in the run game.

When the Falcons have the ball

Falcons offense	Stats	Panthers defense
316.3 (24th)	Total Yards Per Game/Allowed	290.9 (2nd)
88.0 (T-27th)	Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed	114.3 (17th)
3.74 (29th)	Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed	4.13 (13th)
228.3 (17th)	Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed	176.7 (2nd)
26 (T-17th)	Sacks Allowed/Sacks	32 (T-4th)
40.3 (16th)	Third Down Efficiency	35.1 (5th)
18.0 (27th)	Points Per Game/Allowed	21.1 (7th)

Even after a couple of bad outings against Washington and Miami, the Carolina Panthers still have one of the best units in the league and rank near the top of the NFL in several defensive categories. This week, however, the Panthers will have to change some things up after losing starting cornerback Donte Jackson (groin) for the remainder of the season. Defensive coordinator Phil Snow said Thursday that Stephon Gilmore will see some more snaps but will probably live in the neighborhood of 50ish snaps or so. C.J. Henderson and Rashaan Melvin are two other guys that Snow has grown fond of and will rotate into the game at certain junctures. At this time, no one has been named starter in place of Jackson, opposite of A.J. Bouye.

Aside from figuring out who is going to start at corner, the Panthers have to find some answers as to how to get off the field. Although they have the 5th-best 3rd down defense in the league, failing to come up with stops on critical downs has been what has hurt this team most in the previous two losses.

"The last two ball games, they've been 6/14 basically which is 40% but we've been in the 20s in some games," Snow said. "Like if you take the Washington game, it's amazing how four plays can change the game. If you look at that game, the two fourth downs that they went for it at about midfield. 4th & 6 and 4th & 3, if we make both those plays, they hardly score any points and it flips the field. The same thing last week [vs Miami]. A couple plays if we make them, probably change the game a little bit. So, we've got to win third down and fourth down. One of the problems is when you're playing teams that have nothing to lose, you're going to get a lot more fourth downs. It's hard to stop anybody in this league or any level when you have four downs."

Fortunately for Snow and the Panthers' defense, Atlanta struggled to convert third downs in the last matchup in October. The Falcons went 3/10 on third downs with one of those conversions coming late in the third quarter. Matt Ryan had an awful day throwing the ball but much of that was due to the Panthers dominating the line of scrimmage and pressuring the pocket. Ryan was brought to the ground for three sacks on the day and was hit a total of eight times. On top of that, he threw two interceptions. One was a poor decision that went directly to Shaq Thompson and the other was an underthrown ball that Stephon Gilmore came down with to seal the game. If the Panthers can get to Ryan, they should be able to limit Atlanta's scoring opportunities.

With both teams coming into this one at 5-7, it's a must-win game for each side. For the Panthers, they have a brutal four-game stretch that awaits them, so there's no way around it. Carolina has to win this one to stay alive.

The Panthers and Falcons are scheduled to kick off at 1 p.m. EST from Bank of America Stadium. The game will be televised on FOX.

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