Should the Panthers Pursue a Veteran Running Back in Free Agency?

Why Carolina should pass on the veteran-laden free agent running back market.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, this free-agent running back class is gearing up to be one of the most loaded in recent memory.  Schefter announced Monday afternoon on X that none of the running backs eligible for the franchise tag will receive it. This unprecedented set of moves will set up this historic free agent class.

Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler, among others, will all hit the open market when free agency opens in March. With a position pool loaded with veteran talent, the question begs, should Carolina sign one of these veterans?

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The short answer? No. The long answer? Absolutely not.

In the modern NFL, successful teams do not spend significant capital on the running back position (unless you employ a severe outlier like Chrisitan McCaffrey. A really good football player).

The Kansas City Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls. In both of their Super Bowl seasons, they spend less than 2% of their cap space on the running back position. Going back even further, the 2021 Rams, 2020 Buccaneers, and 2019 Chiefs all spent less than 2.5% of their money on running backs. 

Paying veteran running backs is not a winning formula. 

It's a cruel world, but the market inefficiency when it comes to running backs is drafting one, over-working them on their rookie contract, and letting them hit the open market for a different team to overpay them and receive less bang for their buck.

The only scenario where paying a veteran running back the kind of contract that a Barkley, Jacobs, or Pollard is going to demand, is if the team is one piece away from reaching the Super Bowl. A la Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers. See a theme here?

On top of all that, the Panthers were in this exact scenario twelve months ago. The team paid Miles Sanders a top-of-the-market deal, and the veteran running back lost his job to Chuba Hubbard. A homegrown draft pick on his rookie contract. 

Yes, the Panthers desperately need to surround Bryce Young with talent on offense. 

Yes, the 2023 Panthers struggled to run the ball at times. 

No, Carolina should not overpay one of these running backs to be a bandaid for a broken offense that needs more than a quick fix. 

The team needs younger, cost-controlled talent that will affect winning down the line when Carolina projects to be more competitive in 2025 or 2026, not another albatross contract spent on a position that is guaranteed to age poorly.