Projecting Adam Thielen's 2024 Statistics

Matt Alquiza | May 27, 2024

Dec 31, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) during warm-ups against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports / Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Thielen's 2023 campaign was one of the most prolific receiving seasons in Carolina Panthers history. His 103 receptions in a single season were tied for third all-time in team history (behind Christian McCaffery's otherworldly 2018-19 seasons). He became the 11th player in franchise history to record 1000+ yards in a season. The 33-year-old had his detractors, but 2023 was a vintage season for a wide out aging like a fine wine.

What does 2024 have in store for the former All-Pro receiver?

I project that Thielen will be slotted for a significant role early in the season. The Panthers' revamped Bryce Young's weaponry, but his new toys Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette will take time to find their footing behind the incumbent number one target.

In 2023, Thielen received an outrageous 25.7% share of Bryce Young's targets, the 15th highest percentage in the league. Other players (Jonathan Mingo, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall Jr.) had their struggles separating, forcing Thielen to be options number one, two, and three for Young. Thielen won't see 137 targets again in 2024, but I have him projected to see 113 targets from Bryce Young, a 20% share.

Thielen should work closer to the line of scrimmage in Dave Canales' offense with Johnson and Legette working deeper downfield. He averaged 9.8 yards per reception in 2023, and I project him for 9.5 yards per reception in 2024.

With a projected catch percentage of 65% and a touchdown rate of 5%, Thielen's 2024 stat line comes out to 694 yards and five touchdowns on 73 catches. A step down from his dazzling 2023 statistics, but more in line with what one should expect from a veteran who will play the entire season at 34-years-old.