Projecting Bryce Young's 2024 Statistics

Matt Alquiza | May 21, 2024

Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) drops / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

If you rostered a Carolina Panther during the 2023 fantasy football season you may be entitled to financial compensation. Just not your league's prize money.

Sure, Adam Thielen had his flirtations with WR2 status. Yes, Chuba Hubbard had a couple of nice weeks. But overall, Carolina was generally a fantasy wasteland in 2023 under Frank Reich and Chris Tabor's watch. Dave Canales is here to fix that.

Canales has been lauded for his work with quarterbacks starting with Geno Smith in 2022 when they were both employed by the Seahawks. Smith's resurrection season ended with him throwing for 3624 yards and a 20 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio on his way to winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Baker Mayfield posted a line of 364 completions, 4044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his one season with Canales, the best season of his career.

While Carolina's offense is unlikely to set the league ablaze in 2024, it promises to be more effective than the 2023 version. Bryce Young is in year two playing for a head coach known for his prowess in developing quarterbacks, standing behind a beefed up offensive line, and throwing to real weapons all over the field.

I pulled out the trusty calculator (just an app, not a TI-84) and a Google Sheet and got to work projecting the Panthers' 2024 statistics. It starts with the number of plays Carolina will run in 2024.

Dave Canales' Buccaneers ran around 1050 plays in 2023. The Panthers ran around 1090. The discrepancy comes from Carolina's propensity to play from behind in hurry-up scenarios against prevent defenses. I project the 2024 version of the Panthers to run 1070 plays next season, splitting the difference between the two.

Of those 1070 plays, I'm projecting Bryce Young to attempt 565 passes. Baker Mayfield attempted 568 last season, and Young attempted 527 while missing one game. Assuming the Panthers' signal caller hits around 61% of his throws (he completed 59.8% last season. An uptick due to experience, more time in the pocket, and better weapons is factored in), Young would complete 346 passes in 2024.

I foresee Bryce Young averaging just under 6.4 yards per attempt. An improvement over his paltry 5.5 from last season, but still near the bottom of the league. It's hard to imagine the Carolina offense becoming a much more efficient outfit even though the talent has improved tenfold.

~6.4 yards per attempt multiplied by 565 throws equals out to Young throwing for 3592 yards in 2024. That number would have been good for 17th in the NFL last season, which feels right for Young's current status in the NFL's quarterback hierarchy.

Throw in a touchdown rate of 4% and an interception rate of 1.9% (both slightly below league average as Young protects the ball and doesn't take home run shots often), I project Young to throw for 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

These calculations add up to a 17 game stat line of 346/565, 3592 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while chipping in for 247 yards on 38 rushing attempts. A marked improvement from Young's rookie year, but still in the middle of the pack when it comes to the NFL as a whole.

For fantasy purposes, this would place Young firmly in the QB2-3 tier. Viable to be rostered in superflex/two quarterback leagues, but on waivers in a traditional one quarterback league.

What do you think about this projection for Young's 2024 season?