Projecting Diontae Johnson's 2024 Statistics

Matt Alquiza | May 21, 2024

Dec 18, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) with the ball in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Dionate Johnson is a baller.

The Carolina Panthers entered the 2024 offseason in desperate need of playmakers, so Dan Morgan swung a trade for the Steelers' second leading receiver. Johnson has rocketed to NFL stardom with crisp route-running skills that allow him to separate at all three levels of the field. Panthers' fans who attend training camp will be treated to a show the first time they lay their eyes on Johnson's fancy footwork in one-on-one position drills.

The best season of Diontae Johnson's career came in 2021 when he hauled in 107 receptions for 1161 yards and eight touchdowns, all career highs. His skills are undeniable, but a propensity for drops and lack of elite touchdown production (he found pay dirt five times last season after failing to score a single time in 2022) keep Johnson from joining the elite tier of wide receivers.

Struggles aside, Johnson will bring an element that the Panthers' passing game lacked following DJ Moore's departure last season. How will Bryce Young's shiny new target fare in 2024? Let's take a look.

If you missed Bryce Young's projections, check those out here. I predicted Carolina to run 1070 offensive plays in 2024, and for Young to throw 565 passes in Dave Canales' offense.

Before George Pickens burst onto the scene and snatched targets away from Johnson, Dionate was the clear alpha in the Steelers' offense. He commanded upwards of 25% of targets from Pittsburgh quarterbacks for two seasons, and I believe he'll do the same in Carolina as a true number one option.

I have Johnson tabbed for 27% of Bryce Young's targets, good for 153 targets in a 17 game season. On average for his career, Johnson hauls in around 58% of balls thrown his way (a mix of drops and poor quarterback play contribute to this) for nearly 12 yards per reception.

Johnson should see more accurate balls from Young than any quarterback he played with in the Steel City, upping his catch percentage. However, Xavier Legette was drafted to stretch defenses vertically, so I see Johnson working closer to the line of scrimmage as X earns more playing time. With that said, I'm projecting Johnson to catch 60% of his targets while averaging 11.5 yards per reception.

Add in a touchdown percentage of 8% (his zero touchdown 2022 season is the exception, not the rule), and I see Dionate Johnson finishing his maiden season with the Carolina Panthers accumulating 1058 yards and seven touchdowns on 92 receptions. Shy of his career-defining 2021 season, but still good for one of the better seasons in recent Panthers history.

In a half PPR format, Johnson would end 2024 with 193.8 points according to my projections, good for the WR16 slot last season. A WR2 finish as a whole is a lofty projection for Johnson, but the combination of an improved Bryce Young, no clear competition for an elite target share from day one, and a coach who has coordinated elite offenses in the past, an elite fantasy year for Diontae Johnson is squarely on the table.