Projecting the 2024 Panthers' Backfield Statistics

Matt Alquiza | Jun 25, 2024

Dec 17, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard (30) runs as Atlanta Falcons safety DeMarcco Hellams (37) defends in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Carolina Panthers' backfield is in an interesting spot. On one hand, it's as talented as any position group on the team. Jonathan Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, and Rashaad Penny project as an above-average running back room, and NFL analysts have taken notice.

Trevor Sikkema of PFF called the Carolina running back room "sneaky good." Conor Orr projected Penny to write his name near the top of the NFL record books. Dave Canales has a vision for a dominant run game in Carolina, and he has the horses to run wild over unsuspecting defenses.

Projecting the roles of the three-headed monster in Carolina's backfield (I am omitting Penny from this exercise) is a tough task. Sanders was brought in last offseason to takeover the throne vacated by Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Stewart, Stephen Davis, and a number of other running backs that have dominated in Charlotte. He failed to live up to that top billing. Sanders totaled 432 yards and one touchdown on 129 carries. A far cry from his 2022 Pro Bowl campaign.

To be fair to Sanders, the entire offense was a mess. He was not alone when it came to struggles on that side of the ball in 2023. However, his counterpart in the backfield, Chuba Hubbard, outshined him. Hubbard made chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what, putting Sanders' struggles firmly in the spotlight.

Hubbard was the lone bright spot in a season full of dark days. The 24-year-old Oklahoma State product ran for 902 yards and five touchdowns at a 4.8 yard per carry clip. Many projected him to parlay that success into a bigger role in 2024, but those plans changed in April.

Carolina selected Jonathan Brooks from Texas in the second round of the NFL Draft to add another dynamic ballcarrier to the backfield. He's still recovering from an ACL tear, and Canales and company will ease him into his rookie season, but he'll be a big factor in the offense when it's all said and done.

Now, for the projections. I'm expecting the Carolina Panthers to run 1040 offensive plays in 2024, with 475 of those being run plays. Taking out 15% of those rushing plays to account for Bryce Young, wide receiver carriers, and the occasional Rashaad Penny carry, that leave a pie of 85% of those plays for Sanders, Hubbard, and Brooks.

Of those 475 rushing plays, I have Sanders taking 12% of the carries. At a 3.2 yard per carry clip, I project Miles Sanders to finish 2024 with 182 yards on 57 carries with one touchdown. The Dave Canales/Brad Idzik duo owe nothing to Sanders, and I believe he will be squeezed out of the rotation sooner rather than later.

That leaves 347 carries for Hubbard and Brooks to split. Due to Brooks' injury recovery and a slow projected start, I'm giving Hubbard 214 carries and Brooks 133. Hubbard was a supremely efficient runner last year in bad circumstances, and I'm projecting him to match his yards-per-carry number in 2024.

At a 4.8 yard per carry mark on 214 carries, I'm projecting Chuba Hubbard's final stat line to be 812 yards and four touchdowns with 25 receptions on top. I forsee Hubbard being the clear number one option for most of the season.

For Brooks, I'm projecting the rookie to finish his maiden campaign with 532 yards on 113 carries, and finding paydirt three times.

These projections may be light based on Canales continuous emphasis on running the ball, but I'd rather be conservative than project a 1000-yard rusher in Carolina for the first time in the post-Christian McCaffrey era.