Assessing Stephon Gilmore's Potential Hall of Fame Candidacy

Could Stephon Gilmore be yet another Patriots' player that seemingly has a gold jacket waiting for him?

The discussion has come up this week to whether New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore will one day have a shrine of him sitting in Canton, Ohio. In other words, can Gilmore become a Hall of Fame inductee? 

The whole discussion came about when a both Patriot Hall of Famer and Pro Football Hall of Famer, Ty Law, spoke about Gilmore and his potential. Law, spoke about Gilmore by stating, “He’s the real deal. And he still seeks advice and asks questions. He’s still eager to learn. If he keeps it up, he’ll be around a long time. One day, you’ll see him in the Patriots Hall of Fame, and the NFL Hall of Fame, as well.”

The conversation was therefore sparked and in two different polls conducted by our site, we received some very mixed results. First, there was the Twitter poll, which was outrageously tipped in favor of Gilmore one day dawning a gold jacket. 

Is Stephon Gilmore a Hall of Famer? #Patriots

— Patriots Country (@PatsCountryFN) June 17, 2020

Then, we had a poll on the site, where the results were just slightly more mixed with 67% saying yes. Still, both ended voting in favor of Gilmore's Hall of Fame candidacy. 

Now, if this poll was conducted on a more national level, with fans from a diverse group of teams, the results would likely tip in the opposite direction. I don't believe the rest of the NFL is ready to accept Gilmore as a Hall of Fame cornerback and I believe it is with good reason. Let's talk about why he might not ready for this yet and what he will need to do to get there.

Beginning the Hall of Fame conversation and understanding what a Hall of Famer is 

This step is an important step for Gilmore. The conversation is open and chatter is starting on whether he belongs in Canton or not. For that discussion to come about at the age of 29 is rather impressive and speaks to just how great he has been in his tenure with New England. However, whenever a new conversation begins for a player's Hall of Fame eligibility or candidacy, I always ask myself what determines a Hall of Fame career. What separates the Hall of Famers from the ones who just miss the cut? 

Asking that question is important to understand and understand well. Without understanding the criteria for a Hall of Fame career, we cannot properly assess who deserves entry and who should be denied at the gates. In order to lay the groundwork for this conversation, let's first understand what goes into the decision process, which in my search for an answer to this question, I stumbled across a great Bleacher Report piece from 2012 addressing this very question. It goes into what the "trademarks" of a NFL Hall of Fame player are. In a general gist of the article, the four criteria marks are peak, longevity, impact by position and total value. We will follow up on these pieces later in the discussion. 

Another part of the discussion which helps draw a clearer picture is looking at some of the people already in the Hall of Fame, specifically, the people from the same position of the player at question. In this case, the Hall of Fame website has a list of all the defensive backs already in Canton. One can figure that other greats like Darrelle Revis and John Lynch will soon be joining this list as well: 

The names of the defensive backs already inducted in the Hall of Fame. 

We will also follow up on this list later, as it is another part of the puzzle to figuring out whether Gilmore deserves to be amongst these greats. 

Peak

First, let's assess his peak, the first criteria. The question is whether Gilmore's peak was last year, when he won Defensive Player of the Year. Most would ask how he could possibly improve on that. However, Gilmore appears to be working harder than ever this offseason; his preparation is a huge part of his success. Can Gilmore deliver an encore to arguably one of the greatest seasons by a cornerback the league has seen in a long time? If he can, his Hall of Fame stock would obviously improve dramatically. 

Let's assume that last season was Gilmore's peak. Not only was he an elite cover corner on one of the best defenses in football, he was also the most feared part of that defense. Gilmore was the best player on a phenomenal defense that was scoring more touchdowns than the opposing offenses in regular season games. Now, after winning DPOY in 2019, people are questioning whether Gilmore is the most valuable defensive player in the league. They wonder whether he has now trumped Aaron Donald as the face of NFL when it comes to defense. 

This peak is one equivalent to many Hall of Fame careers. Champ Bailey, who's on that list, peaked in 2006 where he put up a bid for the greatest season we have ever seen from a cornerback. Gilmore's best year thus far is right in that conversation. 

To put things into perspective, only three other cornerbacks have ever won the DPOY award. Two (Mel Blount and Deion Sanders) are already in the Hall of Fame. The other one (Lester Hayes) still awaits a call, but has been nominated four times and is deemed one of the best cornerbacks not in Canton. 

If last season was Gilmore's peak, he comfortably checks that box. What more of a case can he make in this department? 

Longevity

The B/R article references playing more than ten years in the NFL, which Gilmore has yet to do. He has eclipsed eight seasons and has played in seven playoff games. This year, at age of 30 (come September), he will be entering his ninth season in the league. 

While it's not just about playing a long time, it's also about what happened over those ten or more seasons. In eight seasons so far, Gilmore spent five of them as a talented, but rather inconsistent corner in Buffalo. The last three seasons that he has spent with New England have shown the NFL a much different and much better Gilmore than we were use to seeing from him as a Bill. 

In his eight seasons, Gilmore made the Pro Bowl three times. He made the Pro Bowl once with the Bills in 2016. He also has made it the last two years with the Patriots. Along with that, Gilmore has been named first team All-Pro twice and that has also come in the last two years in New England. 

When it comes to longevity and staying consistent throughout his career, this area probably hurts Gilmore's case the most. Gilmore was just ranked 76th in the top 100 players of 2010's by PFF, because of his shaky years in Buffalo. One would think that Gilmore would be higher than that if he was getting Hall of Fame consideration. He needs at least two more seasons of elite play to really boost him in the right direction. 

Impact by Position

No player at the cornerback position has had a bigger impact on the game than Gilmore since coming to the Patriots. In a passing league these days, it's hard to find a more important position on the defensive side of the ball, in some respects, which is why Gilmore deserves so much respect for what he does on the field. 

While Year 1 in New England was not on par with his next two preceding years, that season will be remembered for a long time, as he was the one who deflected the Blake Bortles pass to send the Patriots to the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles. The next season, he would intercept Jared Goff to seal up the Super Bowl and win his first ring in the league. Point being, not only has his impact been large through his elite play, however, he has also directly aided in winning AFC Championships and Super Bowls. Not many other cornerbacks can say that today.

Gilmore's impact during the regular season and his impact in big games will help his legacy and his bid to Canton. 

Total value and verdict

We have touched on how much Gilmore helped the team in big games, how fantastic he has been the last two seasons, how outstanding his peak has been, and I could go on. However, this still does not avoid the very fact that he needs more longevity to join the group. 

A factor in what got Ty Law into the Hall of Fame was the fact that he played fifteen years in the league and was still intercepting ten balls with the New York Jets at 31 years old. Law was a fringe Hall of Fame inductee and you can look at his stat sheet and see two of his best statistical years coming in 1998 and 2005. That is long-term success and longevity. 

Gilmore cannot say the same right now when it comes to longevity and is riding an insanely big peak. So, while his peak and his impact make this conversation a possibility, his longevity is simply not enough to put him on that list we saw earlier. 

Gilmore's career is not ready to be compared to a Bailey or a Law or a Deion Sanders. However, the difference is that this article is not saying Gilmore cannot. This article is saying that he can, however, is not ready for it yet. He needs to show more and is capable of doing so. 

The fact that Gilmore is even in this discussion is quite telling of just how incredible the last two seasons of his career have been. However, two seasons at the top do not get you into prestigious places like the Hall of Fame in Canton. 

Right now, starting this year, we run into make or break time for Gilmore's Hall of Fame career. Can he stretch his success out more and get it done? He probably can, but he will need a couple more years of elite play before we will have a better sense of where he is in this process. 

Final verdict: He is capable of getting there, however, if he retired today, Stephon Gilmore would not be a Hall of Famer.